Dark Horse/Multibagger Idea for 2017    

_TRIVENI GLASS LTD_

            H1/FY17 H1/FY16

Sales.      38.50.    27.46

NP.            4.78.       2.16

Equity.      12.62

EPS.           3.80      2.16

Outlook:

                 FY17E.  FY18E

Sales.        80.       90

NP.             11.    14.50

EPSRs.      8.70.  11.50

TGL is mfg Figured/Designer glasses used by Interior designers in Offices, Homes, Hotels for doors, partitions, aesthetic enhancement

_Actual holding of promoters is 36%+. Promoters have FROR to buy equity held by SASF. As and when this transaction takes place, promoter stake can rise to 40%+_

1) TGL had already finalised OTS with IDBI. And has started payments from internal accruals

2)TGL has 72 acres land in Allahabad. Has already recd  25 crores as advance payment against proposed sale of this land

3) Once co gets written confirmation of OTS from IDBI, co will have +ve  networth

Stock is tdg @ 2xFY18Eeps.  Mktcap just 28 cr.
Very tiny qty of promoter holding was physical. Same under dmat. Once dematting is done, stock will be out of T group.

_TP 100+ in 2018_

Top pick in Dark Horse category. Negligible downside but HUGE upside possible

Breaking News: New Year Bonanza:

_CMP 399. TP 432-445 January Series_

Kaveri seeds company Ltd:

Denofwealth has always accurately estimated quarterly results of KSCL. Now another accurate info:

KSCL will _soon_ announce *BuyBack of equity shares. Company is allocating around 100-120 cr for this purpose and buyback price can be 460-480*

KSCL has 535 cr Cash/equivalent in its books.

Fundamentally also, stock has been upgraded by brokerage houses:

MOSL             TP 489
Cholamandalam TP 494

Once Buyback is announced ( we expect before 7th Jan), stock can _definitely_ cross 430

Buy January series TODAY

SL 388

*Cheapest I T Stock ( eGovernance) for Big Returns*.          

_TERA SOFTWARE LTD_

Now I am getting higher conviction that Tera can be best bet in I T sector. TSL appears for a vertical takeoff:

Stock still available below its 52 week high

Stock tdg @ 0.35xFY17Esales

H1 EPS Rs 7.15

FY17Eeps RS 18

*PERatio only 6*

_TSL can register 30% CAGR for next 3 years_

A. GSPS: There will be many players but this is such a huge opportunity that each player will get sizeable biz. But TSL will have first mover advantage and already established setup with proven track record

B. Last Mile connectivity to be provided to *ONE LAKH institutions* in AP. Here again TSL can get biz worth 1000+ crores to execute in 2-3 years

C. Lastly AP govt to provide CPE for Triple Play to *EIGHTY LAKH* households. TSL already got trial order for 50000 households

Above new developments are apart from its regular projects of eGovernance

Barring unforeseen, TSL can be 400 in 3 years

Tera Software Ltd

*Up 18%*

Can be 300-400 in 2 years

Breaking News:

Tera Software Ltd

Stock is getting listed at Bse and trading will start at Nse from tomorrow. Stock should now catch attention of institutional investors

Best bet in Sugar industry:

_Triveni Engineering_

In current crushing season, recovery is nearly 11% ( perhaps highest in sugar industry) as against 9.75% in previous year. It will lead to not only bumper sugar production but also big spike in profit nos in FY18 ( co set to report Eps of 10+ in FY17)

*Mudar Patherya:  small-cap to bet on*

*Kaveri Seed Company*: They said the best days were over for this company. When you see the second-quarter results, you get a different picture. In what is usually a weak quarter, the company reported Rs 20 crore Ebitda, hefty other income (which means raw cash on the books), no interest and a Rs 55 crore bottom-line swing (loss to profit). And, there is always that first quarter to build a dream on: nearly Rs 164 crore in Ebitda. Equity Rs 13.8 crore.

On 17th Dec. I had put out an idea that PN investment by NRI's might have slowed down due to black money drive though I did not have the data to support my view at that time. It now transpires that there is a gradual erosion in PN in the domestic market which plunged to its lowest level in three years to Rs.1.79 lakh crore in Nov. end. With tightening of disclosure norms, the share of PN's has fallen from a high of 25-40% in 2008 & peak of 55% in 2007. Though the effect of demonetisation might have had little impact on PN, it's the squeeze on domestic hot money  (which keeps interchanging b/w Zaveri Bazaar & Dalal Stteet) & flow-back of FPI money to the U.S. which is impacting our market. If the market has still not catapulted to the level seen in 2008 it is possibly due to consistent buying by MFI/LIC/ Private Insurance Cos. & investment in ETF by EPFO. All said, the market sentiment is negative & will slowly open up opportunities for investment. Is it then time to come out with the fishing rod to catch the big fish? I feel not yet though one can start testing the waters before taking the plunge

By Sh GRChari

The technical set-up for Bank Nifty is weak /negative & it will most likely break the support at 18,000 & move down to touch the next support available at 17,000. This will drag not only banking stocks but the broader market as well. You will see a collateral damage in IDFC Bank & other bank stocks also. Expect the price of IDFC Bank to go down from current Rs.60 level to about Rs.50 in the coming days & weeks. Sell on rallies to 65-67.

By Sh G R Chari

Technical View:Coal India

Coal India has been trading in downtrend for last one year or so and currently hovering below the resistance zone of its long term average( 100, 200 EMA) on multiple time frames. Chart pattern and resistance of moving average ribbon clearly indicates sideways to negative will continue. It's trend will only reverse above 340 spot while in case of decline, 290/284 would act as support

Technical View: Kaveri seeds company Ltd:.      

Kscl is being accumulated at its annual weighted average price of around 389.60. Scrip is likely to rally towards 428 in the short term. Fresh build up and good cash buying might take scrip to Rs 428 in short term(December Expiry)

Stock faces resistance at Rs 450

KSCL upgrade to BUY with PT of INR489.

**KSCL's rev up 2% to INR678m (est. INR1,261m) in 2QFY17. EBITDA stood at INR34m (est. INR14m), and margins at 34%. Adj PAT at INR77m.

**Cotton seed vol in India declined 15% YoY, but Kaveri's vol moderated by just 4% as it gained market share in states like AP and Telangana.

**KSCL headwinds now behind, majority write-offs already taken, improved outlook for cotton acreage and clarity over distribution of cash in hand through special dividend or *buyback*.

** Expect FY18 rev/PAT growth of 20.5%/25%) and FY19 to continue witnessing healthy growth pace.Upgrade to buy with PT of INR489.

*Our Take: Even MOSL report mentions about Buyback. As per our source, Kscl will announce Buyback worth Rs 100 cr or more @ 480-500 and we estimate FY17 NP at 200+cr*

*Kaveri Seed Company Ltd.*

_Sharply improved results_

Net Sales came at Rs. 67.8 Cr vs YoY Rs. 66.3 Cr

EBIDTA came at Rs. 3.4 Cr vs YoY Rs. -44.6 Cr

EBITDA Margin came at 5%, vs YoY -67.3%

PAT came at Rs. 7.7 Cr vs YoY Rs. -48.2 Cr

Despite excellent nos, stock was hammered down yesterday due to aggressive selling by DII.

Some brokerage houses estimating FY17 NP at 140cr. However denofwealth is confident that *FY17 NP will be 200+crores* ( as per our interaction, Q3 and Q4 will be far better YoY)
FY18 NP can be 240+cr

_Stock is trading @ 13.45xFY17Eeps and 11xFY18Eeps_

Strong upside possible
Investors may add more who bought earlier at higher price on our recommendation.

Another Downgrade:

Coal India Ltd

Macquarie TP Rs 252

Macquarie has rated CIL as _underperform TP 252_

However denofwealth estimates CIL may fall to Rs 225 in less than 6 months.

1. All global brokerage houses have estimated FY17 Dividend to be Rs 18-20 per share and giving TP factoring High Dividend Yield. However we feel that such high Dividend will not happen as recently 3500 Cr drained out by buyback ( co had to break FD) in Oct16

2. Current year EPS to be considerably LOWER. All brokerage houses estimating FY17 eps between Rs 18-21 per share which is completely unrealistic . Looking at H1 NP, CIL can report such high Eps _only if H2 Eps is Rs 13-16 and it is impossible because CIL did not report such high Half yearly Eps when Coal prices were LIFETIME high_

For higher gains, we advise to roll over position to Jan17 series. Stock should make new 52 week low in Jan17

*CLSA ON COAL INDIA:TP260*
Profit drop driven by sharp fall in e-auction ASPs, higher-than-expected mining and staff costs
Believe Coal India's volume growth should improve 2H onwards
Believe pressures from weak e-auction prices and rising costs could continue
See another price hike as unlikely until FY18
see high risk of Coal India cutting dividend payout, which would remove key valuation support
cut FY17-19CL EPS by 7-9% and now forecast -3% EPS Cagr over FY16-19

*MS ON COAL INDIA:TP 268*

miss was led by all-around earnings weakness; realization under FSA, e-auction below estimate
believe volume growth and e-auction realization will improve from current levels
Believe cost per ton will also decline with ramp-up in volumes
believe CIL has not been able to fully pass on impact of regulatory cost increase
Increased capex, ltd price flexibility, looming wage hike will mean muted earnings growth in F17

OUR TAKE: denofwealth was only co in India to accurately forecast Q2 nos and *estimates of all brokerages proved wrong by massive margin* Now brokerage houses are estimating ONLY 6-10% decline in FY17 EPS . Again they will prove wrong in a big way:
A. Coal offtake still not high. You may check Oct Nov despatch at Bse
B. Diesel cost likely to rise which will dent margins
C. SALARY: *In Q2 wage hike on ad-hoc basis 12% which is not final. Actual wage hike may be 18%*. It can significantly reduce profit margins in H2. Original demand of Unions 42%.

Hence *denofwealth estimates FY17 earnings to decline 20% or even higher*

CIL can decline to 272-276 in 2-3 weeks
Can be 225 in 6 months

Coal India forms committee to revise pay of 3 lakh employees

Coal India Ltd (CIL) has constituted the 10th joint bipartite committee for the coal industry (JBCCI) to revise pay of over three lakh non-executive employees across its subsidiaries.

A decision to this effect was taken at the 15th meeting of the standardization committee of JBCCI-IX held in CIL headquarter in Kolkata last Wednesday. Representatives from five Central Trade Unions — Indian National Trade Union Congress (INTUC) (04), Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangha (BMS) (04), Hind Mazdoor Sabha (HMS) (04), All India Trade Union Congress (AITUC) (03) and Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU) (03) and equal number of management representatives will participate in the JBCCI-X to determine the pay revision for workers in CIL.

The first meeting of JBCCI-X is expected later this month to determine the wage structure of (National Coal Wage Agreement) NCWA-X, which will be effective from July 1, 2016.

Over 20,000 non-executives (workers) of Mahanadi Coalfields Ltd (MCL) will be among more three lakh beneficiaries at CIL subsidiaries of — Eastern Coalfields Ltd (ECL), Central Coalfields Ltd (CCL), Bharat Coking Coal Ltd (BCCL), Northern Coalfields Ltd (NCL), Western Coalfields Ltd (WCL), South-Eastern Coalfields Ltd (SECL) and Central Mine Planning and Design Institute Ltd (CMPDI).

It may be noted that the central government has effected a 42% rise in minimum wages of non-agricultural workers in the 'C' area category from Rs 246 to Rs 350. For the first time, there has been simultaneous increase in the minimum wages of all sectors in the central sphere.

Nahar Industrial Enterprises Ltd:

Due to profit booking by traders, stock may consolidate at current level. However cmp is still lower than recent high of 132.
Barring unforeseen, NIEL should make new high in 1-2 weeks.
Much smaller textile stocks trading at much much higher PERatio.
NIEL is large sized and fully integrated with captive power

Sugar industry is doing well. If mgtmnt decides to demerge Sugar division, NIEL can spurt much faster

Stock should easily touch 250 in 2017

Q2 NP ZOOMS _1400%_
H1 NP ZOOMS _700%_

_Nahar Industrial Enterprises Ltd_

Has reported HIGHEST ever NP in Q2 30.21cr vs 2.02cr. H1 NP 49.95cr vs 6.43cr

*A) *Tdg @ 4.15xFY17Eeps and 3.75xFY18Eeps*

*B)Tdg @ 2.45xFY17ECEps and 2.36xFY18ECashEps*

C) *H1 NP rose BY 700% YoY*

*D) Mktcap 395cr vs expected Cash Profit of 328 cr in FY17,18*

*E)Book Value Rs 165*

FINANCIAL:

                 Q2:FY17. FY16
                   Rs/Cr.    Rs/Cr
Sales.        432.        387
PAT.         *30.21.     2.15*
Equity.        39.84
*Eps           7.59.       0.51*

PROSPECTS:

                      FY17.  FY18

Sales.        1875.    1950.  

Dep                   66.    62

NP.                   95.    105

Cash Profit.   161.  167

*EPS.         23.85.  26.35*

Cash EPs.  40.42.    41.92

About NIEL:

271000 spindles
7832 Rotors
53MW power plant
2500 TCD sugar
112 million mtr  Fabric mfg capacity
Huge yarn dyeing: 13 TPD
Spread over 7 plants

Peer Comparison:

                    PERatio

Sangam.        13
KPR.                23
Nahar Spg.     10
*NIEL.            4.15*

Despite being amongst the biggest textile co, NIEL is cheapest textile stock

Even if NIEL gets modest PERatio of 10, stock should be Rs 250

Now I am getting higher conviction that Tera can be best bet in I T sector. TSL appears for a vertical takeoff:

A. GSPS: There will be many players but this is such a huge opportunity that each player will get sizeable biz. But TSL will have first mover advantage and already established setup with proven track record

B. Last Mile connectivity to be provided to ONE LAKH institutions in AP. Here again TSL can get biz worth 1000+ crores to execute in 2-3 years

C. Lastly AP govt to provide CPE for Triple Play to EIGHTY LAKH households. TSL already got trial order for 50000 households

Above new developments are apart from its regular projects of eGovernance

Barring unforeseen, TSL can be 300-400 in 3 years

Big Big development for Tera Software Ltd:

A) TSL has become approved vendor with A P state Fibre Net Ltd to provide Last Mike InterNet Services to Govt entities. _one lac Schools, PHCs, Police, Revenue dptmnts in A P state will be covered_

As per our info, TSL expects orders worth 700-1000 Cr to be executed in 2-3 years

*Most undervalued IT co which may touch 200 by 2017*

More big developments expected

Do not be impatient to cash-in into the market right now or be in a hurry to buy stocks (even of fundamentally strong companies) from a medium to longer term perspective. The markets are going in for much deeper correction and this possibly indicates more bad news is in the offing. My advice will be to bide your time as there are too many uncertainties surrounding our market and it is likely to be reactive to both internal & external news and developments. Any future rally is more likely to be a technical, pull-back rally and will not be sustainable unless the market goes through a period of consolidation, say, for at least 2-3 months -- the longer the better for a strong rally in the future like the recent one which ran it's course from March to September 2016. .At the moment, I see a dis-connect between the Indian & the US market -- while Bond prices are falling and stocks are rising in the US in expectation of increase in the interest rate and reflation, the opposite is happening in India. Also, contrary to public perception, a deflationary process of falling prices is likely to curtail demand and it will not provide the required impetus to the economy to race ahead. Consequent upon demonetization, the economy will experience a liquidity crunch as people and corporates will need time to adjust to the new environment as well as the unpredictability of the new challenges that are thrown at it. In the circumstances, I don't think the markets have bottomed out and I expect the broader market to correct another 5-7% from current levels (though select individual stocks may correct more) and,after that, the market is likely to go into a consolidation phase, at least till February 1, 2017, when the budget for the next fiscal will be presented. [Refer to my WhataApp message sent a couple of days back]. 

After factoring the above, the indicative prices for the stocks are given below which may be a safe level to buy. However, it will be prudent to keep some 10-15% cash handy to buy in case the stocks correct more than the price indicated by me.

NMDC: Rs.95-100.

Coal: Rs.275-280.

Syndicate Bank: Rs.55-60.

TFCI: Rs.40

Sumeet: Rs.25.

Moil: Rs.275

GR Chari

It is a truism that misfortunes never come singly & it is no exception for the market. The TRUMPism in the USA,  the demonetisation of Modi & the imbroglio in the Tata House have all converged to change the sentiments & direction of the market. This correction is also a knock on the head to naive investors who think that the market is a one way street. So, what's in store for the market for the balance part of the year? For one, the market, at the fag end of the year has started giving both time-wise & price-wise correction and the short term momentum indicators have started trending down decisively. As indicated by me on 4/11, the major near term support for the market @ 8,000 has already been tested on 9/11 and it is very important that this level is not vitiated in the days to come. Mind you that, after yesterday's correction, we are once again close to the 8,000 level in the Nifty. The Nifty after touching 8,002 has rallied to the level of 8,550-8600 indicated by me & reversed ferociously from those levels. This is an advance warning that the state of the market is very brittle & even a small bad news can aggravate the fall. At the moment, the market has entered over-sold territory & a sharp rally cannot be ruled out. As the market cracked from the previous support level at 8,500, the pull back rally, when it happens, can retest that level. In short, I expect the market to trade in 8,000-8500 levels in the next 2-3 weeks as the market will wait for further cues from the FED & RBI on the interest rates. The spike in the Bond Market in the U.S. is a clear indication that the rate hike is a given thing. But our market can fall ahead of the forthcoming event and in case the 8,000 level is breached on the downside, I expect another falling knife which can take the Nifty all the way down to 7,500. This will be 3/4th correction of the rally from March to September 2016. This is the broader trend of the market and trends cannot be broken or reversed easily. Some stocks may try to defy the fall and don't be lured to buying them as they will later fall in line with the broader market correction. I expect the market may face more headwinds till the presentation of the Budget likely on Feb. 1, 2017 and the prudent thing to do will be to keep your nerves under control, stop playing the guessing game, use the rallies to exit stocks and stay in cash till some sign of bottoming is visible in the charts. Caution & Cash should be at your side at this critical moment. You are welcome to check with me before taking an investment decision and, may be, with God's benign grace, He will give me the power to give you the right advice.
"Risk is good, but not properly managing your risk is a dangerous leap". -- Evel Knievelwisdom.
The above is a toast for your
 financial health.

Valued Contribution by Sh GRChari

My take: Amongst 1000s of articles subsequent to demonetization, perhaps the most rational balanced analysis

*Once upon a Time there was Hitler*
1. Hitler had not got married
2. Hitler used to think that people of certain religion were enemies of the country
3. Hitler’s supporters could not tolerate any criticism against him
4. Hitler used to paint and sell colours in his childhood
5. All the means of publicity, newspapers, magazines were devoted to publicise Hitler
6. Hitler had crushed all Labour movements
7. Hitler used to call his rivals anti-nationals/traitors
8. Hitler had joined the Nazi party as an ordinary worker and gone on to finish all his rivals and had become the leader of the party
9. Hitler had come to power campaigning that he would end all problems in a jiffy
10. Hitler, after he came to power could not manage to end any problems, but he certainly managed to destroy Germany
11. Hitler had come up with a slogan to come to power--- *Good Times will Come—Acche din aayenge!*
12. Hitler’s party when it won, he went to the German Parliament for the first time and cried profusely
13. Hitler had come to power lying
14. Hitler used to love dressing up and look good
15. Hitler had the consummate art of making lies look like truth
16. Hitler always used to say, I, me, I, me, I, me always
17. Hitler used to love giving speeches on Radio (there was no TV those days)
18. Hitler used to have a lover whom he used to get spied on
19. Hitler always used in his speeches *“friends, friends” (mitron, mitron)*
20. Hitler used to love getting photographed

```P.S: This post is just and just about Hitler. If this post feels like it has any resemblance to anybody else except Hitler, you can blame it on your own imagination.```

PR warroom of BJP churning out new adulatory msg for Namo every few hours to brainwash the public and taking his plain rhetoric as reality.
Charity must begin at home:

1. If his intentions are really clean then FIRST he should have banned cash donations to political parties. All parties every year receive hundreds of crores of donation majority of which is shown in CASH and accounts of political parties should be subject to audit by CAG

2) Agriculture income above a nominal slab should invite income tax. A normal kisan ( which constitute  more than 90% of total kisan community) owns small parcels of land and barely survives. Majority of politicians use agriculture biz to launder black into white. These politicians never do any agriculture. Bought some tract of land using black money and each year, show agriculture income running in several crores which is TAX FREE. If Supreme Court takes Suo moto cognizance to find out the truth. Entire nation will be shocked to learn the scam which runs into thousands of crores. Politicians ( excluding bizmen turned politician) rarely pay income tax but have amassed Networth running into hundreds of crores only using agriculture income route/fraud

20 Microns Ltd
Hot Buy
Breaking News

One can buy. Co has mines in white minerals. Has been doing well. Full report tmrw. Investors may buy TODAY as Q1 results were excellent and Q2 should be better( Today)
Stock price should go up 50% in next few weeks.
Can be even 3x in 18-24 months

There is no let-up in the markets technical      set-up which is in a downward drift. The Nifty came once again close to test the crucial support level at 8500 on 2/11. Tomorrow's trading will decide if the mkt bounces back, once again, from 8500 and stays/closes > 8500 or plunges < 8500. If the latter happens, which is more likely given the trend of the market, be sure the "FEAR FACTOR" will set-in and take the Nifty down initially to 8400 & then 8350. The FII's, who are the movers & shakers of the market are in an unwinding mood & the tremors in NYSE will reverberate in BSE. The impact is already visible in front line stocks & it will percolate down & hit like an avalanche the mid & small cap stocks which are being supported by HNI's & MF's. Time to book profit (even a small loss), sit in cash & re-enter later. At the moment, it appears to me to be a correction in a bull rally and not a change in the primary trend of the market, which is still up. Even from a fundamental perspective, the market valuations are rich & Q2 results for front line companies are not earth shaking to warrant an upward spiral in prices.

Valued Contribution by Mr  G R Chari

High Tech pioneer co available Dirt Cheap:

_Shilp Gravures Ltd_

Ahmedabad based SGL is pioneer and leader In Electro Mechanical Engraving for flexible packaging industry.

This high precision technology involves making of Anilox Roller, Lamination Roller, Coating Roller.

Shilp technology chooses from Chemical Etching, Mechanical Engraving, Electromechanical Engraving, Digital Laser Technology to give wide range of Engraving parameters for varied applications in _fast growing flexible packaging industry_

Financials:

           Q1FY17

Sales.    16.80

NP.            2.13

Equity       6.15

Eps.           3.47

Future outlook:

           FY17E.    FY18E

Sales.    74.        88

NP.         9.10.    11

EPS.   14.80. 17.90

SGL is trading at *6.28xFY17Eeps and only 5.20xFY18Eeps*.
Such low valuations are exceptionally low by any yardstick( In Q4 of FY16, SGL had made one off expense of 2.76 Cr)
Gravure printing is extremely high technology. And at a time when companies with low earnings are commanding irrationally high valuations, SGL undoubtedly a tempting pick

In fact, _some foreign companies keen to buy out promoter at very high valuations but promoter not keen_

TP Rs 175 in 18 months
TP Rs 250-275 in 30 months

1. Step 1- Download Telegram and install it from Google Playstore.
2. Step-2 Search for "denofwealth" in search bar.
3. Step3- Denof wealth will come in the search result.
4.Step4-Click on "JOIN".
Congrats you have boarded successfully.
or Click on this link www.telegram.me/denofwealth

_denofwealth shall be providing more than 30 equity ideas and Breaking News upto Nov16. It may not be possible to intimate each Whatsapp group ofEACH report. Hence, you can register at Telegram so that automatically you will get it on your mobile as EACH idea is posted on Telegram_
It is absolutely free service

*Hot Buy: Breaking News*:

_Quantum Jump Q2: JKPaper_

JKPaper set to announce Fabulous nos  for Q2 on 27th October:

*For Q2, denofwealth estimates JKPaper to report whopping 145% rise in NP YoY and 90% rise QoQ*

_Q2 NP can be 48 crores vs 19.81cr vs 26.66 cr_

JKPaper has emerged amongst leading paper companies in India and is set for rerating

TP Rs 121

Highest Dividend Yield Likely

*Shipping Corpn of India*

1) Equity.                465Cr
2) _NetWorth.      7083Cr_
3) PAT FY16.          377Cr
4)OneTime Exp.    135Cr
    In FY16
_5)CASH IN HAND1250Cr_
6) Equity with GOI.   65%
7) Equity with MF.     20%
8) FIT.                            3%
9) Public.                    12%
10) Baltic freight Index up from 290 to 800
11) New MD from Pvt sector
*12) As per DPE guidelines, Co should declare Dividend 5% of Network or 30% of NP whichever is Higher. It means SCI will have to pay Dividend of Rs 7 per share for FY17*

At CMP, Div yield 10%

Interim Div of Rs 2 likely with Q2

52week high Rs 100

In last 2 weeks, shipping stock like Essar have risen 50%.

SCI TP 85-90

Peer Comparison:

_Nahar Industrial Enterprises vs Sangam_

Both companies have 40 Cr Equity although Sales of NIEL higher

              Sales.   Mkt cap

Sangam. 1511.   1233

NIEL.         1775.    480

Sangam is trading @ .8xSales

NIEL is trading @.27xSales

Lowest valuation of NIEL in textile space

TP 160-170 by Nov16
Long term tgt Rs 350-450

Hind Aluminium Ind Ltd:

_Proxy for booming Power sector_

CMP 125. TP 250

HAIL , belonging to Mumbai based Associated group, is engaged in production of Aluminum & Alloy Conductors and aluminium Rods catering to Power Transmission & Distribution applications. Co has capacity to produce  30,000 tonnes Aluminum conductors and 45000 tonnes Aluminum Wire Rods

Its clients include PGIL Tata Steel JSW KEC Sterlite etc

Financials:

               Q1/FY17.  FY16

Sales.    160.            720

NP.         3.41.          9.01

Equity.    6.30

EPSRs.    5.41.       14.30

BValue.    118

HAIL had reported EPS of 14.30 for FY16 and paid 16% dividend

For Q1, co has performed well as NP rising 32% YoY to 3.41 cr. Q1 EPS is 5.41

               2016-17E

Sales.     680

NP.         10.50

EPSRs.   16.65

Current mktcap is less than 80 crores

_HAIL is tdg @ 7.50xFY17Eeps. If stock deserved moderate PERatio of 15, stock price should be Rs 250 in 12 months_

Upgrading Sumeet Ind: TP Rs 120.        
_Interview of promoter_

         In Q2CFY , its revenue went up 20.4 percent by YoY to Rs 347.17 cr and profit was up 228 percent YoY to Rs 15.62 cr. Promoters who had sold around 5 percent stake earlier this year are expected to buy that back before December.  Volume is not increasing very fast as it has not added any new capacity. *Plant is running at 120 percent.* It is increasing quality, increasing production and increasing value added products. Hence the profit is increasing. Standalone profit last year was Rs 28 cr and in H1CFY, this is Rs 30 cr.... in half year we earned profit equal to last year. *Profit in CFY is expected to be around Rs 70 cr* against Rs 28 cr last year. _In the next one or two years, this can touch up to Rs 100 cr._ Planning to add some capacity. It has low debt of about Rs 150 cr as it has not expanded in since 2012. It plans to manage funds and in the next 1-2 years double the production  capacity.

OUR TAKE: Sumeet has emerged as extremely efficient mfr of yarns , reflecting directly in sharply enhanced margins
_Stock can be 120 in next 15-18 months_

Next Multi bagger in Paper Industry:

*Cosboard Industries Ltd*:

In booming paper industry Cosboard can be new winner. I am yet to prepare Buy Report.
Q1 PBDT was much superior. Q2 will be still better. Co has made presentation to some big investors whom mktmen follow blindly. 2-3 have already started buying as convinced about future outlook. Once their names come in shareholders list, there can be frenzied buying.
Promoter has promised to reduce debt significantly by March 2017.
Stock can at least double in coming months.
Buying _strongly recommended_

Another Multibagger Idea:      

_TRIVENI GLASS LTD_

            Q1/FY17 Q1/FY16

Sales.      19.50.    14.70

NP.            2.50.       1.14

Equity.      12.62

EPS.           1.98.       0.89

Outlook:

                 FY17E.  FY18E

Sales.        80.       90

NP.             11.    14.50

EPSRs.      8.70.  11.50

TGL is mfg Figured/Designer glasses used by Interior designers in Offices, Homes, Hotels for doors, partitions, aesthetic enhancement
For Q1 TGL reported 110% rise in NP. Earlier only 1 production line was operational. In Q1 TGL resumed prdn on 2nd line as well leading to sharp jump in financials.
_Actual holding of promoters is 30%+. Promoters have FROR to buy equity held by SASF. As and when this transaction takes place, promoter stake can rise to 40%+_

1) TGL had already finalised OTS with IDBI. And has started payments from internal accruals

2)TGL has 72 acres land in Allahabad. Has already recd  25 crores as advance payment against proposed sale of this land

3) Once co gets written confirmation of OTS from IDBI, co will have +ve  networth

_4)BIGGEST TRIGGER_
Upcoming capital city Amravati is just 75 km from TGL plant. And there is no other factory in 200 km radius. Hence, demand for TGL glasses will far outstrip its entire production. *It will provide strong pricing power to TGL and BIG jump in its margins*

Stock is tdg @ 2xFY18Eeps.  Mktcap just 28 cr.
Very tiny qty of promoter holding was physical. Same under dmat. Once dematting is done, stock will be out of T group.
TP 100+ in 2018

Top pick in Dark Horse category. Negligible downside but HUGE upside possible

Time to Buy Triveni Engineering:Record date to be announced soon
_TP 90 in 2 months_

1) Holds shares of Triveni Turbine *worth Rs 900 cr vs mktcap of Rs 1420cr*

2) Demerging Sugar &allied business , post which TEIL will have engineering biz and Triveni Industries Ltd (TIL) comprising 7 sugar factories, 105MW power and 160KLPD distillery would be listed. *Shareholders will get one share each of both companies*

3) Q1 PAT 49cr vs Loss of 89cr. Q1 Eps 1.88 vs -3.46

4) *SUGAR BUSINESS*: Unrealised profit of inventory  
as on 30th June is 187cr( only sugar, excluding distillery, power).
*FY17E EBIT 390CR, PBT 290CR, PAT 225CR. EPS 9*
Even if Sugar (TIL) gets PERatio of 8( prevailing industry is 10), TIL (sugar biz) should be Rs 60-62 in 3 months of listing

TEIL (engineering biz) should quote 30-35 in Nov16 ( will also have TTL shares worth Rs 35/ share).
*Triveni Turbine was listed @ 40. Similar rise expected in T Engg after demerger  as water div will have vertical growth and gear div will have bright future due to tie-up with GE*
_Q2 NP to rise 100%+ YoY_

Fabulous Q2:
_Sumeet Industries Ltd_

              Q2: FY17. FY16

Sales.            348.  289

PBT.            20.77. 5.13

PAT.            15.62.  4.76

EPS.              2.69.  0.82

For Q2, steep rise in profit margin as sales have risen 20.42%, But NP has jumped 228% to 15.69%. Coming quarters will be equally good or even better as new 4.8MW power plant has become operational.
We revise upwards our FY17 EPS estimate to Rs 8.50-9 and FY18 EPS est to Rs 12.

*Stock is still tdg @3xFY18Eeps, leaving scope for further rise

TP Rs 80 in 12 months

Amongst Largest Textile Co but Most Undervalued:

_Nahar Industrial Enterprises Ltd_

*A) *Tdg @ 5.20xFY17Eeps and 4.55xFY18Eeps*

*B)Tdg @ 2.83xFY17ECEps and 2.70xFY18ECashEps*

C) *Q1 NP rose BY 400% YoY*

*D) Mktcap 450cr vs expected Cash Profit of 324 cr in FY17,18*

*E)Book Value Rs 155*

FINANCIAL:

                 Q1:FY17. FY16
                   Rs/Cr.    Rs/Cr
Sales.        470.        432
Dep.             17.        23.70
PAT.           19.74.      3.91
Equity.        39.84
*Eps              4.95.     0.98*

PROSPECTS:

                      FY17.  FY18

Sales.           1950.   2075

Dep                    72.       68

NP.                    86.        98

Cash Profit.     158.      166

*EPS.             21.60. 24.60*

Cash EPs.    39.65.   41.70

About NIEL:

271000 spindles
7832 Rotors
53MW power plant
2500 TCD sugar
112 million mtr  Fabric mfg capacity
Huge yarn dyeing: 13 TPD
Spread over 7 plants

Peer Comparison:

                    PERatio

Sangam.        15
KPR.                26
Nahar Spg.     11
*NIEL.             5.20*

Big scope for PERatio expansion

TP Rs 350 in 18 months

Sumeet likely to announce 125% rise in Q2 NP YoY on 17th. New power plant operational. With closing down of small factories in unorganized sector, Sumeet has bright prospects. We firmly believe stock to be 80 in 12-18 months

Acrylic fibre industry has started facing margin squeeze and demand has come down. Hence investors are advised to book profit in Pasupati Acrylic immediately

Post demerger potential of Triveni Engineering:
Investors may remember that Triveni Turbine was listed at 40 and then it's share price trebled

Once sugar div is demerged, we expect:

1. Demerged sugar div Triveni Industries Ltd to quote @ 60-65 ( in 3 months of listing) as demerged sugar div will report Eps of 9 for current year

2. After demerger, engineering div consisting of water and gear known as Triveni engineering should quote ( ex basis) @ 40. But can rise to 100+ in 18 months as water div NOW gtg huge orders n mgtmnt expecting 30% CAGR

_Investors can now buy Triveni engineering. Sell Triveni Ind when it is listed post demerger. Thus shares of Triveni engineering post demerger will be ABSOLUTELY FREE_

Edelweiss Buy on- Tourism Finance Corporation of India Ltd


Loan book to grow at healthy rate: We expect TFCI to report healthy credit growth as fresh capex is expected in the tourism industry. Hotel industry reported 3.9% supply growth while demand increased by 10.5% in FY16, which resulted in a significant jump in occupancy rate to 67-68%. Increasing occupancy level will create demand for new hotel in next two years. We expect 25% loan growth over FY16-18E on back of strong demand for new hotels. We believe the diversification of loan book will provide the stability in long term.Asset quality to improve: Company reported a very healthy asset quality between FY08 and FY15 but in FY16 asset quality deteriorated significantly. The absolute gross non-performing asset (GNPA) of the TFCI was INR 159 crore by March 2016. In Q1FY17, company recovered INR 20 crore and we expect INR 30-35 crore recovery/resolution/up-gradation in Q2FY17 and INR 100 crore recovery/up-gradation/resolution by the March 17, translating outstanding GNPA to INR 55-60 crore by March 2017.Healthy sanctions & disbursement: TFCI reported an average of INR 697 crore sanctions and INR 462 crore disbursements over FY12-16. During the H1FY17, the total sanctions and disbursement stood at INR 1000 crore and INR 600 crore. We expect 50% and 60% growth in sanctions and disbursement over FY16-18 to INR 1,442 crore and INR 973 crore respectively.Margin is expected to remain under pressure:TFCI has been reporting a very healthy NIM as interest outflow is slightly lower due to lower leverage. We believe the incremental disbursement will increase the leverage which will have the marginal impact on the net interest margin (NIM). Currently TFCI’s NIM stood at 5.78% which is expected to fall by 49 bps over FY16-18 to 5.29%.RoE to improve: Gradual decline in leveraging ratio and healthy advance growth is likely to boost the profitability. Company has been reporting slightly low RoE due to high equity. We expect net profit to report 16% CAGR over FY16-18E to INR 72 crore in FY18. Currently TFCI is reporting 10.8% RoE, which is expected to improve to 12.33% in next two years.

In FY16, hotel industry reported 3.9% supply growth while demand growth was 10.5%, which resulted in a significant jump in occupancy rate to 67-68%. We expect fresh capacity addition requires in next two years. Considering the initiatives of central Govt. such as ‘Make in India, Smart-cities, Ease of Doing business and Digital India, we believe demand for hotel room will increase substantially.

At CMP of INR 66 per share, stock is trading at 0.9x FY17 adjusted book value (ABV) and 0.8x FY18 ABV. We believe the healthy credit growth and incremental capital borrowing from money market will enhance the profitability. Hence we have a positive outlook.

AXTEL INDUSTRIES LTD:

*An Engineering co available  for peanuts*

Q4 FY16 Sales 32 cr vs 21 cr in corresponding period of previous year (50% rise)

Q4 PAT 6.73 cr vs 1.63 cr in corresponding period of previous year(up 400%)

Normally, Q4 of AIL is peak quarter

FY16 Sales 67 cr vs 40 cr in FY15

FY16 PAT 4.80cr vs 7.54cr LOSS in FY15

AIL is engaged in production and marketing of processing
equipments/machineries for FOOD PROCESSING and PHARMA Industry.
Hence, has huge growth potential.

*Q1FY17 Sales 14.50 vs 6.67cr*
*Q1 NP 2.06cr vs Loss 3.77cr*

FY17E Sales 90 cr    PAT 11.50 cr

FY18E   Sales   130 cr  PAT  18 cr

Stock can be in 3 digits in next  6 months. investors who can hold the
stock for 12-36 months should try to buy for big big appreciation.  An
engineering company (with clientele in highest growth industry of food
and pharma) available at market cap of just 100 crores.
_Barring unforeseen, AIL can be Rs 200 in 15-24 months_

SHORT Coal India Ltd @ 328.60. SL 333. Target 325, 320 intraday
Chinese miners raise output after Govt call to curb Coal prices- Reuters ( big negative for Coal)

Highly informative :Triveni Engineering:
Post demerger, Triveni Industries Ltd will consist of 7 sugar plants, 105MW Cogen power and 160KLPD distillery ( amongst largest in  India) and our projection for TIL as under:

                     FY17E. FY18E
Cash Profit.  320cr.  360cr

Repayment
Term Loan.    130cr.  185cr

*TIL likely to be DebtFree( term loan) by 2020*

Demerged TIL (sugar/ allied biz) projection:

                             FY17E
Reserves.            620cr

Tangible NW.      730cr

Total Assets.     2800cr

Current Assets. 1900cr

Current Ratio.     1.20

*D:E Ratio.            0.64*

Interest Cov
Ratio.                    3.50

With expectation of sharply reducing debt and high profits and above sound financials, post demerger *TIL can be Rs 60-70 by March 17.*

Hence if investors now buy Triveni Engineering ( cum basis), TIL can be sold and will be holding *Triveni Engineering( ex basis) absolutely free of cost*

Sugar Spot :Overnight Blasted +6.35%
Weekly jump of +8.95%
YTD is up by 42.95 %
Heading towards $0.247-0.262

TRIVENI ENGINEERING holding stock of 28 lac quintal ( valued @ 29.15) as on 30th June is big beneficiary of sugar price rise. Profit from this Inventory *nearly 200cr*
Stock should be Rs 90 on record date for demerger in November 16

*Debt Free Engineering co available at attractive valuations: DHP India Ltd*

Calcutta based DHP India Ltd is engaged in production of Valves and
other accessories used in gas cyliners.   Gas cylinders are used by
all OMCs like HPCL, BPCL, Indian Oil. DHP has reported fabulous nos
for Q1 and is available at very low PE Multiples and only 1.1xBook
Value with high promoter holding and hence, the recommendation.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE:

      Q1/FY17   Q1/FY16      

Sales     10.67      9.42            

PBT         1.80     0.93              

PAT        1.32       0.63              

Equity                   3.00                  

                                   

Book Value Rs                                       119/

Eps Rs     4.40          2.09            

DHP India had reported EPS of Rs 16.34 for FY16 and stock is available
at PE Ratio of 7.90xFY16 Eps

FUTURE OUTLOOK:

DHP has reported fabulous for Q1 wherein Sales have gone up by 10% but
PAT has flared up 100% from 63 lacs to 1.32 crores. Q1 EPS is Rs 4.40

           2016-17E  2017-18E


Sales          44            48

PAT             6.60        7.80

*EPS Rs        22           26*

DHP India, in the field of high precision engineering, is an
attractive buy considering:

1. DHP is trading at 5.85xFY17E Eps

2. DHP is trading at 4.96xFY18E Eps

3. CMP is 1.10xBook Value

4. *Debt Free*

5. As per Graham method, valuation of co works out to Rs 210 per share

6.  Promoter stake 74.37%

Even if DHP gets modest valuation of 12, stock price should be Rs 250
at least. Equity is so small that if big buying from HNI investors
emerges, stock can be even Rs 400 in 18 months

Crompton Greaves Ltd:SELL

 Morgan Stanley has equal-weight rating with *target at Rs 61* per share as ongoing restructuring leads to margin uncertainty

*IDFC has given Sell call TP 72*

HDFC too has given Sell call TP 76

*Fundamentally also stock is overpriced as Q1 Eps (0.15) and cmp much higher than 52 week low of Rs 33*

Our take: CG can come down to 74 Sept expiry. SL 81.80

HORRIBLE Q1:COAL INDIA TP 300-305 SEP EXPIRY

Net Sales 17796 Cr vs 18956 Cr, *down 6.11%*

Ebidta 4254Cr vs 4801Cr, *down 11.40%*

PAT 3065Cr vs 3596Cr, *down 14.85%*

*NP after Comprehensive Income takes bigger hit* DOWN 17.55%(3130 vs 3796)

AUGUST DESPATCH DOWN 9.6%

CIL BREAKING FD TO FUND BUYBACK 3650 CR

INVENTORY PILE UP DUE TO SLACK DEMAND

*Outlook for Q2,Q3 Weak*

CIL can be 282-288 Oct Expiry

Results of Coal India: As estimated by denofwealth, CIL has missed on all parameters ( sales, Ebidta, PAT). Stock may tomorrow open gap down at around 320-322.  Stock may touch 300-305 Sept Expiry

Q2 unlikely to see any recovery as August despatched already down 9.6%. Coming months also, despatch may remain subdued due to closure of some power plants. No silver lining in near future for CIL.
Sell. Sell. Sell

KAMADGIRI FASHIONS LTD: TP Rs 105/

Rationale for Recommendation:

1) Own brands TRUE VALUE and TRUE LINEN gaining popularity

2)Strategic tie-up with FUTURE group to supply 2 million garment
pieces every year

3) Kishor Biyani holds 33.53% stake in KFL through his unlisted companies

4. Consitently dividend paying company

5. Supplying garments to all leading brands in India including
Raymond, Park Avenue, Indigo Nation, Wills, John Players, Blackberry
etc

Mumbai based Kamadgiri Fashion Ltd (KFL) is engaged in production of
Textile Fabrics and Garments.

a) WEAVING DIVISION:  KFL has modern weaving plant comprising of
Sulzer, Somet and Psudocama  weaving machines

b) GARMENT DIVISION: KFL has been supplying
garments to all leading players like Parx, Lee Cooper, UMM, Rig, Park
Avenue, Arrow BlackBerry, Raymond etc. KFL is one of the major
supplier of garments to Future group and now, through strategic
tie-up, will supply 2 million pieces of garments to Future group each
year.



FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE:

For FY16, KFL has reported turnover of Rs 300 crores with PAT of 1.90
crores. Equity had increased from 5.06 crores to 5.44 crores after
allotment of shares to nonpromoter group @ Rs 62 per share.  KFL has
declared div of Rs 1.50 and CMP is cum-dividend

                           Q1/2016-17      Q1/2015-16

Sales                      70                  68

PBT                       1.22              0.19

PAT                        0.80              0.13

Equity                    5.87               5.06

EPS Rs                 1.36                0.13

 KFL has posted VAST
improvement in profit margins for Q1 wherein its sales have gone up
only 3% but PBT has zoomed from 19 lacs to 1.22 crores. PAT stands at
80 lacs vs 13 lacs.

                          2016-17E         2017-18E

Sales                    320                350

Net Profit               4.20               5.50

EPS Rs                  7.15              9.35

VALUATIONS:

Current market cap is only 46 crores vs sales of 300 crores for FY16.

Strategic tie-up with FUTURE group to supply 2 million garments every
year ensures steady business growth for KFL.

In House brands TRUE VALUE and TRUE LINEN gaining popularity and will
enhance KFL profit margins

Kishor Biyani holds 33.50% stake

At cmp, KFL is trading @ 8xFY18Eeps which is on lower side

Even if KFL gets modest PERatio of 15, its share price should be Rs
105 based upon FY17 earnings and Rs 140 based upon FY18 earnings

CLSA ON SUN PHARMA:

Raise target to Rs 1050 from Rs 1020 Maintain Buy
* Halol clearance will be a key catalyst for the stock
* Increase our FY17CL EPS estimate by 3% post the 1Q results
* Key geographies delivered growth in line with our expectations


*CITI ON SUN PHARMA:

 Maintain Buy, Target Rs 975
* 1Q results are not as strong as headline suggests, buoyed by one time sales
* Competition in Gleevec & US derma market could put some pressure on profitability
* Synergies from Ranbaxy integration, Halol resolution are potential positives

Technical Outlook: Sun Pharma heading towards 796, 825. If it cross, 888 possible

Dividend Yield:TFCI vs others:

Name.    Paid Rs   Yield

SKS.          Nil.           Nil

Canfin.      10.         0.70%

DHFL.          2.          0.76%

IBullHF.        9.          1.10%

LICHF.        5.50.      1%

TFCI.       1. 80.    *4%*

TFCI miles ahead of ALL other NBFCs in terms of Dividend Yield and payout ratio
Dividend of TFCI for FY17 should be Rs3

Multibagger stock in Packaging industry:

HINDUSTAN ADHESIVES LTD Bse code  514428

HAL is engaged in production of adhesive tapes for industrial and consumer packaging.

Stock is trading @ 4xFY17Eeps

Mktcap only 20cr

Introduction of Shrink Film, a high margin product

 Q1 PAT rises 550% to 92 lacs vs 14lacs. Q1 Eps 1.80

FY16Eps was 5.12
FY17Eeps  9.50-10
FY18Eeps 12-14

Awesome Q1 Tourism Fin Corpn Ltd:

Q1FY17 PAT 20.15 vs 3.25 Q4FY16, rising BY 520%

Q1FY17 PAT 20.15cr vs 16.45cr Q1FY16, rising 22%

NII 53.95cr vs Q4FY16 36.49cr, rising 47%

NII 53.95cr vs Q1FY16 46.97cr, rising 15%

Annualised Eps  Rs 10

Cmp 0.70xBValue, lowest in NBFC industry. Scope for huge expansion

TFCI has stopped funding to Real Estate and Equity.

Even if TFCI gets modest PERatio of 12, based upon current year earning, stock should be 120 in 6-9 months.

Some big development taking place. Stock can be 300+ in 2018. Undersigned had recommended Canfin @ 110 in 2013

Triveni Engineering: TP Rs 90 in 3 months:

1) Holds shares of Triveni Turbine worth Rs 900 cr vs mktcap of Rs 1420cr

2) Demerging Sugar &allied business , post which TEIL will have engineering biz and Triveni Industries Ltd (TIL) comprising 7 sugar factories, 105MW power and 160KLPD distillery would be listed. Shareholders will get one share each of both companies

3) Q1 PAT 49cr vs Loss of 89cr. Q1 Eps 1.88 vs -3.46

4) SUGAR BUSINESS: Unrealised profit of inventory
as on 30th June is 187cr( only sugar, excluding distillery, power).
FY17E EBIT 390CR, PBT 290CR, PAT 225CR. EPS 9
Even if Sugar (TIL) gets PERatio of 8( prevailing industry is 10), TIL (sugar biz) should be Rs 70-72 once it is listed (in Nov16)

TEIL (engineering biz) should quote 40 in Nov16 ( will also have TTL shares worth Rs 35/ share). Detailed report on engineering prospects separately afterwards.

Our Top Pick in Sugar industry

Crompton Greaves Ltd:SELL

 Morgan Stanley has equal-weight rating with target at Rs 61 per share as ongoing restructuring leads to margin uncertainty

Our take: Stock appears highly overpriced. Short covering over. We feel that stock should be down 8-10% in September series ( if mkts don't shoot up).    

IDFC has also given SELL with TP Rs 72

 Technical view of a leading brokerage firm:

 Resistance at 87 and support at 79 . Target 75, once it breaches 79

Standard Industries Ltd:

Huge upside. Can be even 8x in 3-4 years

1) Has 63 acre land in Ghansoli N Mumbai where going rate is Rs 18-22 cr per acre. SIL thru JV with a big brand developer of Mumbai will get 300+cr cash and 6 lac s f built up area of I.T. park. It will fetch 40+cr lease rent annually
In this city, Cidco had sold residential plots @ 90 cr/ acre

2) SIL owns 30000 s f in Stanrose Aptmnt sea facing prime location. Value 150+cr

3) SIL also has 16835 s f plot in Sewree Mumbai. Value Rs 180 cr approx

4) Finally SIL has 3200 acre ( yes 3200) Salt Pan land in Surat

Best play in real estate segment

Downside negligible
A definite multibagger

Crompton Greaves Ltd:SELL

 Morgan Stanley has equal-weight rating with target at Rs 61 per share as ongoing restructuring leads to margin uncertainty

Our take: Stock appears highly overpriced. Short covering over. We feel that stock should be down 8-10% in September series ( if mkts don't shoot up)

Crompton Greaves: Best Sell

Big Brexit blow          

 Stock has run up from Rs 44 as CG had announced sale of its overseas loss making T&D biz for 115 million Euro on Debtfree cashfree basis. This inflow of 115 million Euro would have helped to reduce debt and hopes of improving profitability. However, this deal has been called off. Announcement anyday. We also believe recovery of domestic capex cycle is still not visible and even if there is a recovery, capacity constraints and highly competitive PT market will limit gains.  Pricing pressure continues in the overseas markets too, as suggested by peer commentary.

Q1 results (today)will be the worst in 2 years with profit coming only 1/3rd of what is expected by the market. Stock likely to be downgraded

Will stock touch Rs 65 Sept expiry?

Triveni Engineering: Huge Value Unlocking through Demerger: *Tgt Rs 90 in 3 months*

Valuation based upon FY16-17E:

Sugar Revenue(Cr)  2200
Value of Sugar Biz@
1.0xRevenue (Cr)     2200

Gear Biz Sales(Cr).    135
Value of Gear biz@
8xSales (Cr).              1000

Water biz Sales(Cr).   250
Value of Water biz @
1.2xSales (Cr).             300

Value of Triveni
Turbine stake(Cr).      900

*Total Value of co*. 4400cr
Long Term Debt.        528cr
*Net Value of co*.    3872cr
Discount before
Demerger@25%.        968cr

*FINAL NET VALUE*2904cr

Current Mktcap.        1480cr

*Potential for appreciation in next 3 months before record date: 90%*

Most Hot: Triveni Engineering Ltd: Buy NOW

Co will declare Q1 results today. With 7 sugar factories, Triveni is amongst largest sugar mfr in India.

As per denofwealth estimates, co can report *NP of 65-70 cr for Q1 alone vs Loss of 86 crores*.

FY17 NP of sugar division alone should give Rs 8-9 Eps. If  PERatio of 10, sugar division ( as engineering division getting demerger) alone should quote @ Rs 80-90 next year.

Investors can buy this stock for core portfolio.

Tgt Rs 85-95 in October 2016

Combined ( adding share price of 2 demerged entities)  value of listed entities can be *Rs 150 by 2017end*. Full detailed research report with electrifying details on Monday

Dividend Yield:PFC vs others:

Name.    Paid Rs   Yield

SKS.          Nil.           Nil

Canfin.      10.         0.70%

DHFL.          2.          0.76%

IBullHF.        9.          1.10%

LICHF.        5.50.      1%

PFC.       13.90.    6%

PFC miles ahead of ALL other NBFCs in terms of Dividend Yield and payout ratio

As per our source, Div for FY17 on increased equity ( after bonus) can be Rs 10

96% with Govt and institutions. Only 4% public holding.

Stock should be 254 August expiry

For investors, stock can be 200 ex-bonus by 2017end

Big market ahead for Triveni Glass Ltd:
Amravati proposed New capital of Andhra is just 80 km from TGL plant. When construction of Amravati gathers momentum, demand for building interior materials in that area will soar. TGL Will be amongst big beneficiary as there is no other glass plant in 200 km radius. Transportation of glass from long distances is not only risky ( breakages) but very expensive as well. Hence, TGL should witness never-before-seen demand boom for its designer glasses. Once OTS is fully implemented, co may go for massive Expansion considering impending demand explosion. And TGL can improve profit margins substantially. Still our Top Pick in Dark Horse segment with TP of 100+ in 2 years.

Highest ever quarterly NP, Q1 loan sanctions zoom 76%, and still Cheapest NBFC

POWER FINANCE CORPN:

Excellent Q1 nos:
NII grows 5% vs CNBC est of 7% degrowth

NP 1712 cr all time high qrtrly 21.85% up vs Bloomberg est 1405cr

NP up 36% QoQ

NP up 17% vs CNBC est

NP up  9% YoY


Q1 STRONG POSITIVES:

New sanctions increase whopping 76% to 34613 cr vs 19638

CAR 21.10%

Return on Net-worth 21%

Cost of Funds down to 8.46% vs 8.72%

Yield on Assets 11.94%

Tdg @ 0.87xBookValue

Annualised Eps 51.89

Tdg @ PERatio 4.30 only

52 week high 257
Stock to flare up as Bonus issue record date (29th) nearing
denofwealth hopeful that stock should bounce to 250  August expiry.                
POWER FINANCE CORPN:

BUY : Tgt Rs 250:Axis Direct

PAT above estimates, sanctions rise
Power Finance Corporation (PFC) reported profit of Rs 17 bn in Q1
(up 9% YoY) – above our estimate – aided by higher NII and
significantly lower-than-expected provisions (down 70% QoQ despite
135 bps improvement in coverage ratio). Asset quality was stable –
absolute GNPA stagnated at ~Rs 75 bn though headline GNPA ratio
optically slipped 20 bps down due to a consolidating loan book
(down 5% QoQ).
Although disbursements were flat YoY at Rs 77 bn, sanctions were up
76% YoY to Rs 346 bn, alleviating some concern on future growth after
conversion of discom debt into cash under the UDAY scheme.
Outstanding sanctions at Rs 1.55 tn (3.5x avg annual disbursements).

Our take: Record date for Bonus shares 29th August. Stock should rise sharply . 96% equity with Govt/DIIs/FIIs. Only 4% with public. We estimate PFC to be 150 ex-bonus ) in 2-3months

BUY now: JUST DIAL. Q1 Results will surprise.

denofwealth estimates PAT at 44cr vs HOS of 30 cr vs Bloomberg est 35cr. Just Dial market cap 3300 cr.

*Cash Balance around 900 cr. Nearly Rs 150 per share cash*BUY JUST DIAL all out

Huge Short Covering likely.

Month high Rs 588

DHP India Ltd: Q1
DHP has reported bumper nos:

Q1 NP 1.32 cr vs 62 lacs
Q1 Eps 4.40 vs 2.09
DHP on course to report Eps of 22 for FY17
Stock should cross 150 in 2-3 tdg sessions and Rs 350 in 18 months

Sun Pharma Q1 result today( after mkt hours):

Likely to beat Street est:

denofwealth est Sales @ 8300cr vs Bloomberg est 7876 cr

PAT can be 2040cr vs mkt est 1894cr

Stock has potential to open gap-up on Monday

SL. You decide

Breaking News:

Simmond Marshall Ltd: Set to announce bumper Q1 today:

denofwealth est Q1 PAT 2cr vs 89 lacs in Q4FY16, rising 124% QoQ. Huge improvement due to cost cutting.

Small Equity 2.24cr

Q1 Eeps 1.78 vs 0.79

Coming quarters to be still better

FY17Eeps Rs 8.

One of the oldest mfr of Fasteners and Nut/Bolt for Auto and engineering industry ( same as Sundaram Fasteners, Sterling Tools)

Even if SML gets PERatio of 15, stock should be Rs 120.

52 week high 132.

Awesome Q1 Tourism Fin Corpn Ltd:

Q1FY17 PAT 20.15 vs 3.25 Q4FY16, *rising BY 520%*

Q1FY17 PAT 20.15cr vs 16.45cr Q1FY16, rising 22%

NII 53.95cr vs Q4FY16 36.49cr, *rising 47%*

NII 53.95cr vs Q1FY16 46.97cr, rising 15%

Annualised Eps  Rs 10

Cmp 0.70xBValue, lowest in NBFC industry. Scope for huge expansion

TFCI has stopped funding to Real Estate and Equity.

Even if TFCI gets modest PERatio of 12, based upon current year earning, stock should be 120 in 6-9 months.

CLSA ON ADANI PORTS

Maintain Buy, Target `305

Promoter commits to unwind intergroup loans by 4QFY17

Promoters assurance on loans, turn in traffic are re-rating catalysts

Strong volume rise at Dhamra, Hazira and CT3 validates are drivers

See 50% growth in port Ebitda over FY16-19 despite a tough global trade

Our Take: Adani Port TP 262 August expiry

SBI Cap: Adani Ports and SEZ 1QF17 result review | TP – Rs303 (+26%) | Rating: BUY

Adani Ports and SEZ Ltd’s (APSEZ) 1QF17 results overshot SSLe, primarily driven by increase in cargo volumes across various ports. On a consolidated basis, APSEZ’s volumes grew 6.9% YoY to 42.3MMT (6% above SSLe) in 1QF17, mainly due to higher containers volumes and pick up in costal shipping. The company’s revenues grew by a healthy 6.5% YoY to Rs18.3bn, largely driven by - a) 6.9% YoY increase in volumes and b) higher SEZ income. On the operating front, EBITDA grew 7.1% YoY, whereas EBITDAM expanded 36bps YoY to 66.6% (SSLe: 65%). Margins expanded with the help of better cargo mix and optimization of port efficiencies. Adjusted PAT grew 29.6% YoY to Rs8.6bn (21% above SSLe) due to a) healthy top-line performance, b) rationalization of interest cost (down 23% YoY) and c) lower effective tax rate (6.9%) on account of MAT credit. Going forward, we expect APSEZ’s topline and bottomline to grow by a CAGR of 7.1% and 2.2%, respectively, over F16–F18e. We maintain BUY on the stock with a SOTP-based TP of Rs303

Power Finance Corp Q1 today:

Will beat ALL estimates by big margin

denofwealth est PAT @ 1680cr vs Bloomberg est 1405cr, huge beat by 20%

33% higher QoQ vs 1259cr

Beats ALL estimates

Stock likely to be UPGRADED  by all brokerage houses

Technical Outlook: PFC short term Target 240-250(cum Bonus). Good medium term Buy

52 week high 257. Will PFC make new high next month?

Coming quarters to be equally fabulous: 80% loan book to govt sector ( so no more NPAs due to govt guaranteed bonds). In balance 20% loan book to Pvt sector, all critical accounts hv bn accounted for. Hence future slippages to be negligible as Pvt sector Outlook improving. We advise to buy and hold for 1-3 weeks for high gains

Adani Port Q1 nos today:

Best buy for August series

denofwealth est PAT @ 780cr vs Bloomberg est 640cr, up 22%

Up 26%YoY vs 619cr

Beats all estimates by big margin.

denofwealth TP 265 August series

TECHNICALS from 2 analysts:

1. Breakout above 240. Support @ 233.50. Next target  248-256-262 this series

2. Has bottomed out. Short to medium term outlook is good. Stock has resistance @ 250. If goes past 250, it can test 300

we shall be BREAKING NEWS of 2 frontline/derivative as well as 2  cash stocks TOMORROW. In order to get all this info INSTANTLY absolutely free(*on Telegram we did Breaking News on Pasupti on Friday @27 and today it touched 34*) investors are advised to
register themselves( to avail of Hot and Hit news) at Telegram as per undergiven procedure:
1. Step 1- Download Telegram and install it from Google Playstore.
2. Step-2 Search for "denofwealth" in search bar.
3. Step3- Denof wealth will come in the search result.
4.Step4-Click on "JOIN".
Congrats you have boarded successfully.
*Those who have not registered are advised to do even now as many more Breaking News in next 1 week*

Mudar Pathreya (known for his Dark Horse Picks)in Business Standard.

 Sumeet Industries Bse Nse:No-brainer yarn spinning opportunity. A company that reported quarterly earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amoritsation (Ebitda) of Rs 27.58 crore is being valued for a market cap of around Rs 95 crore (which means on an annualised basis, the Ebitda could well be larger than the prevailing market cap, an investor trust deficit waiting to be corrected). Interest cover was a modest 2.55 times for a growing company in a capital-intensive sector; pre-tax profit was Rs 11.8 crore on an equity of Rs 58 crore (Rs 10 face value). The story gets more interesting when you consider a prospective expansion (manufacturing capacity and power plant) will increase revenues on the one hand and reduce costs on the other, the benefits of which one could start seeing from 2017-18 onwards. So, even as the company is quoted at a ridiculous discounting, this discount could deepen if it can maintain its current run rate and add expansion benefits. Could be quite a two-year story from this point.

Q1 PAT rises 160%:

Sales 127cr vs 151cr

Ebidta 26.89cr vs 13.15 Cr

Ebidta margin 21.19% vs 9.67%

PBT 24.03cr vs 10.08cr

PAT 18cr vs 6.95cr

Pasupati Acrylon has reported massive improvement in Q1 nos:

Q1 Eps 2.03 vs 0.78, rising 160%
Ebidta margin rise by 104%
Sales volume rises 2%
Sales lower by 7%, due to fall in raw material cost
Stock trading @ 3.75xFY17Eeps
TP Rs 35 this week, Rs 45 in 1-2 months

Most Hot Buy: Buy NOW

Pasupati Acrylon Bse 500456: Result tomorrow

Q1 NP as per denofwealth estimates should be 150% higher YoY

Q1 NP should be 17 cr or even higher. Highest ever quarterly NP

Stock trading at only 3.50xFY17Eeps

TP Rs 35-37 in 4-7 trading sessions

Rs 45 in 1 month

Big market ahead for Triveni Glass Ltd:

Amravati proposed New capital of Andhra is just 80 km from TGL plant. When construction of Amravati gathers momentum, demand for building interior materials in that area will soar. TGL Will be amongst big beneficiary as there is no other glass plant in 200 km radius. Transportation of glass from long distances is not only risky ( breakages) but very expensive as well. Hence, TGL should witness never-before-seen demand boom for its designer glasses. Once OTS is fully implemented, co may go for massive Expansion considering impending demand explosion. And TGL can improve profit margins substantially. Still our Top Pick in Dark Horse segment with TP of 100+ in 2 years.

Few Updates/ Calls of denofwealth vs CNBC/CLSA/ other big brokerage houses:

A. We gave buy call on Maruti @ 4550 that stock vl make new high and in less than a week, stock crossed 5000
B. Bajaj Auto: When almost entire India was giving SHORT call as we had conviction. And with God's blessings, we emerged winners. Stock rose sharply.
C. Larsen: We gave SHORT call at 1555. Almost all investors were on cloud Nine when whimsical CLSA and others upgraded Larsen that we shall be proved wrong. But stock had already slipped Rs 80 since then. Again God helped us
D. Voltas : Despite best ever results, Clsa and CNBC and others gv sell call. We hope in few days, we should prove right.
Least said about Clsa, better it is. Since they gave sell call on BIOCON few months back, stock has more than doubled. They r so egoistic that even now repeating sell on BIOCON with TP 450. I remember around 3 years back Clsa had gvn Buy on an auto ancillary @ 100 or so. Thereafter stock plunged below Rs 10

Result Update on Voltas:
NP little lower than our est. Still significantly higher than Bloomberg estimate. Panic selling. We advise our investors to hold. Brokerage houses likely to upgrade. Stock came down as leading channel gave SHORT call. However we have conviction that stock will rise again

VOLTAS Q1 result today:

Best Ever Results. Stock to make NEW Lifetime High

BTST TP 390+

August Expiry TP 435

denofwealth est EBIDTA to be 220cr vs Bloomberg 165cr, beating by 33percent

denofwealth est PAT @ 172cr vs Bloomberg est 125 cr bearing by 38 percent

Rising 108percent QoQ

Huge improvement due to benign R/M costs and excellent high margin biz in M East

Suggest positional trade for higher return

Stock can cross 400.

Annualised Eps Rs 18. With PERatio of 30 ( this stock/ industry gets), stock worth Rs 500+ in 9-12 months

Big Trigger forTriveni Glass Ltd:

In FY16, TGL was operating only 1 plant. However in its Rajahmundry factory only, 2nd plant was lying closed. Now, 2nd plant has also become operational. Although capacity of 2nd plant is same as of 1st but capacity utilisation of 2 nd plant will be around 60 percent. Hence capacity of TGL stands enhanced by 60 percent. Figured glass being high margin biz, TGL should achieve Rs 12 Eps for FY18.
Stock is still available @ 1.90xFY18Eeps.
Stock should come out of T group next month as only few hundred promoter shares remains physical. Even if stock gets modest PERatio of 10, stock price can be Rs 120 in less than 2 years.

Larsen Toubro Ltd:
Q1 result today( after mkt hours)
May fall how our sell recomm Dr Reddy fell

Denofwealth estimates Q1 Ebidta to be 2140cr vs CNBC est of 2500cr, whopping 14 percent miss

Denofwealth estimates PAT to be 630cr vs CNBC est of 770 cr and Street est of 790cr, again big miss

Results expected to be weak despite Ind AS ( due to revised accounting standards many large corporates making big gains)

Stock is 50 percent higher than its Feb16 price of 1016.

One month high 1615

Technically also, stock looking weak and Once 1520 is  breached, TP Rs 1401 in 2-4 weeks

Appears strong sell

Poised for upsurge.                  

Virtually Debtfree. Graham Valuation Rs 209.63. Intrinsic Value Rs 463.97.Cmp Rs 135

FY16 EPS 16.34

PERatio only 8.20

Q4FY16 Eps 5.63

BValue Rs 118

Produces Valves and other accessories for Gas Cylinders (HPCL BPCL IOC etc)

Promoter 74 percent

FY17Eeps. Rs 22

Tdg @ 6.10xFY17Eeps

Even if gets modest valuation of 12, stock price can be Rs 260

Small eq and high promoter stake may lead to still higher valuations

DHP India Ltd 531306 Bse

Bajaj Auto Ltd Q1:Buy

Short sellers may be trapped
Stock has bn pulled down from 2800 level as rumours in mkt that co vl report lower Sales and Lower Ebidta ( 1175cr). However denofwealth estimates:

Sales to be 5980cr vs Bloomberg est 5950cr and ETBrokerage est 5960cr

Ebidta Margin: Should be 20.9percent as against vs ETBrokerage 20.5percent and Bloomberg 21percent

Con PAT can be 1034cr vs 803cr for Q4/FY16

Other Income: Q1FY16 PAT of 1014cr had Other Income of Rs 437cr. Other Income in Q1/FY17 to be significantly lower. Motilal Oswal est of Other Income 326cr. Actual Other Income to be lower than MOSL est as well

We feel stock should go up.

SL you decide. WhatsApp msg circulating in mkt (ebidta 1175cr) should prove wrong

Our buy calls of yday on Maruti @4500 and Sell on DrReddy @ 3470 gvg big big profit.

 B Auto should also

Shriram Transport FinanceQ1 result today:

CNBC estimates PAT of 400 cr and Bloomberg est is 379 cr
Denofwealth estimates PAT to be 375 crores

TRIVENI GLASS LTD Q1

NP rises BY 121 percent YoY
Sales rise by 50.8 YoY
Q1 Eps 1.98

FY17Eeps Rs 9
FY18Eeps Rs 12
Sure Big multibagger in 2 years

Dr ReddyQ1 result today

Huge Miss

denofwealth estimates sales
at 2963 cr vs CNBC est 3777cr
Ebidta at 629 cr vs CNBC est  of 848 cr

PAT 420 cr vs CNBC est 456 cr

MARUTI Q1: can make new lifetime high. Highest EVER quarterly NP

Denofwealth estimates Q1 NP @ 1578cr vs 1133cr for Q4/FY16, 39 percent rise QoQ

32 percent rise YoY(1192cr)

23percent beat vs CNBC est of 1276cr

Beats est of EVERY brokerage house

Grossly Undervalued; TP Rs 40-50 in 2017

BValue Rs 42 vs Cmp Rs15

FY16 Eps Rs 3.26

FY16 CASH Eps Rs 8.44 (adding DTax, Dep to NP)

FY16 CASH Profit 49cr vs Mktcap 87cr

FY16 Sales 1235cr vs Mktcap 87cr(7%xSales)

Produces POY, PFY, Dyed Yarn and Fancy Yarns

Plant in Surat (major consumption centre)

Q1 PAT @ 8.30cr rises BY120% QoQ

Q1 PAT rises BY 74% YoY

Q1 EPS Rs 1.43

Q1 Sales 369 cr

Name : SUMEET INDUSTRIES LTD Bse, Nse

Sharp jump in profit margin as SIL has started saving Rs 1.50 cr per month by taking electricity from Open Access. Hence, remaining quarters should also be as good as Q1 

FY17Eeps Rs 6

PERatio only 2.50

(Competitor Filatex FY16 with sales of 1278 cr, EPS 8.21 for FY16 trading @ 9.50xFY16Eps has Mktcap of 250Cr)

Sumeet Mktcap 87 cr vs 250cr Mktcap of Filatex (almost same size of both)

If SIL get modest PERatio of 8, stock price can be Rs 48 (FY17Eeps)

FY17 sales can cross 1450 crores.

FY18E Sales 1650 cr(expansion under way) with Eps of Rs 8.50-9

Potential of Real Multibagger

TRIVENI GLASS LTD 502281

TGL is engaged in manufacturing of Figured/Fancy glasses for homes, offices, hotels etc, used by interior designers for beautification of buildings and homes.

FY16 Sales 60.34Cr

NP               4.85cr

Equity         12.62Cr

Eps Rs         3.20Cr

Performance of FY16 would have been much better but for extraordinary provisioning in Q4. In Q4, co's Other Expenses rose from 70 lacs to 4.33 cr( QoQ)

BREAKING NEWS:

TGL will declare Q1 results on 26th July. We estimate:

Q1 Sales 18.50Cr vs 14.71Cr 

Q1 NP 2.55Cr vs 1.13Cr (Rise of more than 100%)

TGL is slated to achieve for FY17 Sales of Rs 76-80 Cr and NP of 10.50-11.50Cr

FY17Eps should be Rs 8.50-9

MAJOR TRIGGER:

TGL has 72 acre surplus land in Allahabad. Co is selling this land and has already RECEIVED 28crores advance  payment. A

TGL HAS ALREADY FINALISED OTS WITH IDBI

And hopes to become DEBT-FREE once balance payment from land sale is received.

TGL is trading at just 2.20xFY17Eeps.

TP  Rs 50 in 6 months, Rs 100+ in 18 months