*100% growth YoY*
JINDAL SAW LTD
Leading pipe mfr of India Jindal Saw will declare Q1 nos on 3rd
Co had reported NP of 66 Cr for Q1/FY17
DoW estimates Q1/FY18 NP can register 100% growth YoY. It means Q1 NP can be *130+Cr*. Q1 EPS will be 4.
_FY18 EPS can be 18+_
Stock price can be 120 in few days
Can be 160 in 6-9 months
(DoW will not be surprised if Q1 touches even 140cr)
*CLARIS LIFE:BIG BREAKING NEWS*
Current market cap of the company is 2000 crores and they will receive 4250 crores from Baxter from sale of the injectibles business. *ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT RECEIPT OF MONEY LIKELY BY TOMORROW*and post which company will announce a 2500 crore *buy back (to delist)at 425-450* per share. Also a part of proceeds will go into dividend payments. BUY for 15% UPSIDE
*Huge Hidden Value*
Kaveri Seed Company
KSCL has never revalued it's land and still shows it in its books at Cost
However it is believed that FAIR MKT VALUE OF ITS LAND IS 800+CR
Stock is under ban in FnO and is being aggressively _bought in cash by FIIs_
KSCL is poised to report *HIGHEST EVER QUARTERLY NP*
TP Rs 1000 in CY17
(Stock was in 4 digits when Nifty was much lower)
Positive for KSCL: *TP 1000 in CY17*
Cotton acreage this season improved significantly....Cotton Sowing(in Lac Hectares)as On 30/06
*Total: 47.91 Vs 30.6 Last Yr, +56%*
NORTH:13.74 Vs 10.71, *+ 28%*
GUJ: 6.77 Vs 3.27, *+107%*
MH:16.43 vs 5.32, *+208%*
MP:3.04 Vs 2.72, *+11%*
AP:1.45 Vs 0.48, *+ 202%*
T-gana:8.81 Vs 5.89, *+50%*
Such sharp rise in sowing leading to disproportionately high spurt in margins
AUGUST END TP 800
*Huge Hidden Value*
Kaveri Seed Company
KSCL has never revalued it's land and still shows it in its books at Cost
However it is believed that FAIR MKT VALUE OF ITS LAND IS 800+CR
Stock is under ban in FnO and is being aggressively _bought in cash by FIIs_
KSCL is poised to report *HIGHEST EVER QUARTERLY NP*
TP Rs 1000 in CY17
(Stock was in 4 digits when Nifty was much lower)
*SAVINGS OF 4200CR*
JP ASSOCIATES LTD
JP ASSOCIATE will save massive 4200 Cr annually after concluding Ultratech deal and transfer of 1000 acre land to lenders.
*Now JP Associate debt stands at 6000 Cr @9.50% interest*
1). For FY 17, total interest outgo was 3667cr. Now on reduced debt, interest outgo should be 700cr or so. Thus, *co will save nearly 3000cr in Finance Cost*
2). Depreciation should come down to 500cr from 913 Cr, *saving of 400cr*
3) Employees Cost was 640cr in FY17 which will stand reduced to around 350cr, *saving of 300cr*
4) Other Expenses which stood at 1468 Cr can come down to less than 1000cr, *saving of 500cr*
WITH QUARTERLY SAVINGS OF 1000+CR, JP ASSOCIATES BOUND TO REPORT PROFIT FROM Q2. It will lead to rerating of Stock
_JPA has received big orders in EPC segment_
*TP Rs 60-80*
Investors know about Big Bull holding stake in JP. Investors don't know about BIG position of Big Bull in FnO, due to which scrip in ban
Price History: JP Associates:
ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN
Trading at Rs 9.85 in 2004, JP Associates leapfrogged to *lifetime high of Rs 335 in 2008* but to crash to 32. Again bounced to 180 in 2009. Again fell to Rs 28 in 2013. Shot up again to 91 in 2014 and *crashed to just Rs 5* in 2016 and tripled to Rs 17 in Feb 2017 but came down to 9.25 in May 2017
*Now there is no looking back for JP Associates. When most of debt ridden companies in bad state , under IBC going to NCLT, JP Associates is ONLY co having sold cement Assets of nearly 17000 cr( no other promoter has done something like this which shows integrity of JP promoter)*
Beginning of Achhe Din in real sense for JP stakeholders. Inherent prejudice of investors keeping price so low as no one has looked at Huge Assets, non-current investments of JP Associates
We reiterate:. TP 60-80 in 2018
*BIG BULL ENTERS JAYPEE INFRATECH*
When Big Bull bought 2.50crore shares of JP Associate, DoW came to know same day (bought in 2nd week June in 2 tranches). Now _Big Bull has started buying JAYPEE INFRATECH and his name should come in Q2 shareholding pattern_. Investors can buy JIL now only as stock can be 35 in October
*_HIDDEN TREASURE OF HEALTHCARE_*
JIL owns 2 hospitals:
1) Noida hospital has 25 Acres. Hospitals never have such big land space. Mktvalue of land ALONE should be 500+crores. 525 beds already operational (can be expanded to 1200 beds IMMEDIATELY). And such a vast land area can have up to 3000 beds. And this is world class hospital where *even heads of nations come for treatment*. Silent performer. No hype
2) Bulandshar Hospital: This is 289 bed facility
Recently listed Artemis has mktcap of 950 crores. If same yardstick is used for JIL, mktcap of *healthcare division of JIL should be 1500+crores*
DoW is only entity bringing to public domain
existence of healthcare division of JIL
LARGEST LANDLORD OF NCR
JIL has *land bank of 6175 acres* and no other builder/company has such big landbank
_Moreover JIL got this land for free_ for building Yamuna expressway
And Mktcap only 2800 cr
Most Undervalued Infrastructure cum Real Estate company
TP Rs 200 in 4-5 years
*ABOVE & BEYOND*
Jaiprakash Associates
DoW was ONLY stock mkt entity in India which started recommending above stock @ 9. Our followers who are aware of awesome track record of DoW believed in us. However, many many investors/ so-called analysts/ pseudo-experts began smear campaign against DoW that DoW is promoting junk stock, _that JP Associate will close down, that co can never revive due to huge debt, that promoter is thief, that don't believe DoW recommendation etc etc etc_ . In the process, such persons were exposing their illiteracy/ignorance and underbelly ( apart from being uncivilised undignified)
Even our acquaintances holding high ranking positions were skeptical.
However, since we had done never-before in depth study of JP Associate, we even in face of vilifying onslaught, DoW persisted with its conviction and continued to disseminate info pertaining to assets of co.
Now our stand has been vindicated by Big Bull acquiring stake in JP Associate
*WE REITERATE OUR PRICE TGT 60-80 IN 1YEAR OR SO* on pure fundamentals
_Valuation only of Land Bank_
JP Associate has 4061 acres of land. Out of it, 1000 acres is being transferred to SPV to acquire 13000 Cr debt.
When 1000 acre land is valued (distress valuation, real value at least double), *investors can calculate market value of balance 3061 acres*
Next week wait for further info on HUGE ASSETS OF OTHER VERTICALS
_Can Be Upper Circuit today_
*LARGEST LANDLORD OF NCR*
JAYPEE INFRATECH LTD
TP Rs 100-110 in 2 years
JIL has *land bank of 6175 acres* and no other builder/company has such big landbank
_Moreover JIL got this land for free_ for building Yamuna expressway
And Mktcap only 2800 cr
Most Undervalued Infrastructure cum Real Estate company
*Havells India Ltd.* | *CMP* Rs. 463 | *M Cap* Rs. 28944 Cr | *52 W H/L* 526/303
(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)
*Result is below expectations*
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 1860.5 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 2057.6 Cr, QoQ Rs. 1710.2 Cr, YoY Rs. 1466.8 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 172.4 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 244.2 Cr, QoQ Rs. 229.6 Cr, YoY Rs. 200.4 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 9.3% vs expectation of 11.9%, QoQ 13.4%, YoY 13.7%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 121.4 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 168.5 Cr, QoQ Rs. 171.5 Cr, YoY Rs. 145.6 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 1.9
Share is trading at P/E of 41.4x FY18E EPS
*OUR COMMENTS*
*Stock appears very expensive. Q2 too should be bad due to big slowdown in sales caused by GST and inventory pile up*
*For SHORT SELL*
Havells Q1 nos today:
BIG MISS ON MARGINS
As per DoW estimate:
1) Havell can report PAT of 126-130cr *Vs Bloomberg est of 165cr*
2) Ebidta can DECLINE to *180-184 Cr Vs Bloomberg est of 240cr*
3) Margins to witness sharp decline at 8.70-8.80% Vs 11.50 est
Stock should fall to 442-444 levels
SL You decide
*High Entry Barrier/Global Peer Comparison*
KAVERI SEEDS CO LTD
1) Germination of Seed is 8 year process. Hence KSCL ( largest Seed co in India) benefits most from such high entry barrier
2) Globally, Seed companies trade at PERatio of 40-50 Vs 13-15 in India.
It is estimated that next year, large seed player like KSCL ( and small equity) are scheduled for BIG UPGRADE ( to command PE Ratio of 25-30)
TP 1000-1100 by 2017 end
Rs 2000 in 18 months
BIG UPTICK:
*Jaypee Infratech Ltd*
JIL had made 165km long Yamuna Expressway operational in less than 5 years which is a RECORD IN INDIA and speaks of execution skills of mgtmnt. Now. Toll collection is poised for sharp spurt :
1) Once Lukhnow-Agra expressway becomes _fully_ operational, traffic on Yamuna expressway (Agra-Noida) will increase sharply
2) With announcement of Jewar airport, JIL is BIGGEST beneciary. First, real estate mkt has started reviving. So once people start occupying proposed townships, *traffic on Yamuna expressway will increase manifold*. Secondly, airport means heavy daily vehicular traffic ( going to and coming from airport)
*BY 2022, TRAFFIC ON YAMUNA EXPRESSWAY IS ESTIMATED TO INCREASE 8-10 FOLD WHICH MEANS ANNUAL TOLL COLLECTION OF 3500 CRORES*
Jaypee IPO was @104.
Stock can be in 3 digits again in less than 3 years.
_Best Dark Horse for Sureshot Mega Gains_
Dhanlaxmi bank vs CSB
Recently there is news that Catholic Syrian Bank ( not listed) may be acquired by Fairfax @ 160 per share.
FY17 Financials in terms of NPA and NP of CSB are lower/weaker compared to Dhanlaxmi bank.
Using this yardstick of Valuations, DBL going dirt cheap and _can definitely be in 3 digits in 2018_
DBL Nnpa already down to 2.58%. We estimate that *Nnpa for FY18 may be as low as 1-1.25%*
DBL AMONGST OUR TOP PICKS. Q1 NOs WILL RERATE DBL
Positive for Kaveri Seeds
Cotton acreage this season improved significantly....Cotton Sowing(in Lac Hectares)as On 30/06
*Total: 47.91 Vs 30.6 Last Yr, +56%*
NORTH:13.74 Vs 10.71, *+ 28%*
GUJ: 6.77 Vs 3.27, *+107%*
MH:16.43 vs 5.32, *+208%*
MP:3.04 Vs 2.72, *+11%*
AP:1.45 Vs 0.48, *+ 202%*
T-gana:8.81 Vs 5.89, *+50%*
Such sharp rise in sowing leading to disproportionately high spurt in margins
Important Update:
KSCL
Presently Buy Back @675 under way for 200 crores. Out of same, 100 crores reserved for promoter
As per our highly reliable source, *promoters will not tender their shares for buyback*
KSCL is estimated to post HIGHEST EVER NP for FY18 and performance for FY19 will improve further/sharply.
_KSCL will be rerated. Stock can be 1100-1200 in 6 months_
*Multibagger Banking Stock*:
DHANLAXMI BANK LTD
DBL is 90 year old bank
Board of Directors consist of experienced professionals including CAs, Company Secretary, exRBI, ex-Canara Bank etc
*DBL has 273 branches*,LOWEST MKTCAP PER BRANCH
DBL fell into trouble due to wrong selection of top managerial personnel who did extensive damage
Thereafter overhaul of Top management has led to strong Turnaround of it's operations
1) DBL has made *NP of 12.38cr in FY17 vs Loss of 209cr in FY16*
2) Gnpa have reduced significantly significantly at *4.78%*
3) Nnpa have come down to *2.58%*
4) CAR is 12%
5) _Provision Coverage Ratio is 80% which perhaps is HIGHEST in India_
DBL will report further significant reduction in NPAs for FY18 and ASSET QUALITY WILL SHOW BIG UPGRADES
_Some prominent personalities are holding 5% stake each( maximum allowed by RBI)_
*DBL can report NP of 80 cr for FY18 and Nnpa of 1.50% or even lower*
DBL (Rs 10FV)is the most UNDERVALUED stock in Financial Services/Banking sector
NO LOOKING BACK FOR DBL
TP 100 in 9 months
TP. 200 in 3 years
_Downside negligible_
_Huge upside possible_
CMP 315. TP 700
_Combo of Sugar, TyreCord, Fine Chemicals, API_
DCM SHRIRAM *IND* LTD
BseCode 523369 (10FV)
Rationale for Recommendation:
1. Diversified Product range
2. Highly profitable Boom in All divisions
3. *FY17 EPS 70*
4. *FY18EEPS 77*
DSIL is diversified conglomerate engaged in production of SUGAR, TYRECORD, API, FINE CHEMICALS
A. _Daurala Sugar_ : One of the oldest sugar Mills and well-known name in U.P., sugar factory produces Premium Packages Sugar, Sugar Cubes, Sugar Sachets and Pharma grade Sugar. Also has 45000 KL distillery to produce Liquor, ENA
B. _Shriram Rayon's_ : Again one of the oldest and most well known name in Tyre industry, produces Rayon Tyre Yarn/Cord/Fabrics and Nylon yarn
C. _Daurala Organics_: This division produces Organic/Inorganic Chemicals and Drug Intermediates
FY17. FY16
Sales. 1506. 1216
PBT. 152 40
PAT. 122 34
Equity. 17.40
EPS Rs *70.19. 19.60*
DSIL reported exceptionally good nos forFY17 with NP of 122cr vs 34cr. Such performance was possible not only due to boom in sugar prices but TYRECORD division too performed much better due to robust demand from tyre industry and improved performance of Chemicals. In fact, *tyre cord industry has become seller mkt with strong pricing power*
_Finance cost is just 2% of Sales which should come down further with increased earnings_
FY18E
Sales. 1550
NP. 134
EPSRs. 77.
DSIL is available at extremely attractive Valuations:
1) *Tdg @ 4.40xFY17eps*
2) *Avlbl @ 4.10xFY18Eeps*
3) BValue Rs 210
Even if DSIL gets modest PERATIO of 10, stock should be 700
( *We repeat Bse code no is 523369*)
*Derivative Stock for July/August*:
Kaveri Seed Company:
DoW had recommended JP Associate last month which was Highest gainer in derivative segment for June and those who followed our advice (Rs 10 to 22) made fabulous gains
Now KSCL is our TOP pick of derivative segment which can give highest appreciation in derivative segment . There are _many triggers including BEST ever nos_
STOCK WILL BE FAVOURITE OF FIIs AND WILL BE RERATED
No SL
*TP 780-820 August Expiry*
*KSCL to make new lifetime High*by Diwali
*Extreme Confidence*
PANCHMAHAL STEEL LTD
Promoter has increased his stake to 72.62% vs 70.79% QoQ
Many times promoters increase their stake when their stake is on lower side, say 40-50%.
However PSL promoter already held 70.79% and still buying another 2% from open market means that PSL HAS GREAT FUTURE
Moreover, _floating stock slowly drying up as 2 institutions holding 17.70 lac shares have completely exited_
*Yesterday delivery ratio was 99.23%* which proves interest of genuine investors
With mktcap of just 110cr, PSL is TOP PICK
*D*iscovery of DoW
TD Power Systems Ltd:
*BIGGEST TRIGGER*
TD is mfr of
Wind Turbine Generators
Gas Turbine Generators
Gas Engine Generators
HydroTurbine Generators
SteamTurbine Generators
TD had already reported fabulous nos for Q4 with top line up 100% and spurt in NP to 10 CR
GE has finalised *800 crores* order to TD. Official announcement in this regard anyday
TD top line for FY17 was 380 crores
Stock can be 270-280 in short term (1-2 weeks)
Can be 450 in 12 months
Wait Almost Over:
Breaking News
Tourism Finance Corpn
IFCI had invited bids from 10 Merchant Bankers for eAuction of its stake in TFCI.
IFCI has received aggressive presentation from these merchant Bankers. *IFCI likely to give mandate to any 1 of these in next 7-10 days.* Thereafter eAuction should kick off immediately and conclude in early August
*eAuction may end us at 140-150 as Reserve price itself can be set at 115-120*
Buying recommended ( add more) for sure shot gains of 50% in less than 2 months
*Readying to Take-Off*.
Jaypee Infra tech Ltd
JIL had sold 30000 units{ residential apartments} which are incomplete. JIL needs total investment of roughly 6000 crores to complete these apartments for possession. Receipt of funds from Yes Bank will enable JIL to commence construction and JIL will start getting construction linked EMIs from home buyers.
*JIL has to receive roughly whopping 18000 CR {receivables}from these home buyers against completion*
*Big Trigger: Jaypee Infratech Ltd*
Yes Bank has approved disbursement of Rs 1100 crore to JIL against securitization of Toll collection of its 165 km long Yamuna expressway ( discounting future Cash earnings ).
JIL will use this money for resuming construction of its incomplete Residential projects. Once construction of real estate projects starts, JIL can expect big inflow of funds by way of construction linked payment from home buyers
Sure Shot MULTIBAGGER
TP in 3 DIGITS in 2-3 years
