*Tata Motors (Rs 422)* is exhibiting a bullish chart pattern and the trend, in all time frames, is in an upward direction. Today the share made a high point on good volumes. The share has a minor resistance at Rs.450 in the short term, but the scrip is on track to make higher highs to Rs.500 in the next 1-2 months. Buy

Tata Motor: *Can make new 52 week high*

Q4: Huge beat over CNBC estimates:
1) Sales can be more than 80,000 cr vs CNBC est 74000 cr

2) Ebidta margin can be 15.20% vs CNBC est 13.70%

3) Ebidta can be more than 12000 cr vs CNBC est 10211 cr

4) *PAT can zoom to 5100+ cr vs CNBC est 3602cr*, massive 40% up

5) Jaguar Ebidta 16%

Stock can rise how our recommendation B Auto has risen from 2386 to 2600

*Hot Sell*

Shipping Corpn of India:
Q4 Results today:
SCI is sailing in choppy seas. SCI is set to announce horrible results for Q4 today:

*Q4 should have LOSS of more than 10crores as against NP of 101 cr in quarter ended March15*
Thus there is turn back of 110 crores YoY.
ICICI Direct estimates Q4 PROFIT at 135 crores. Thus, Big miss even here

*Another big setback*
It is reliably learnt that SCI's long-standing and big client ONGC has already served notice to SCI to end their contract ( one month notice required) as ONGC getting cheaper rates from a Chinese co. Loss of ONGC biz can be a big setback to fortunes of SCI.
Intraday TP Rs 61-63.
Rs 55-56 in June
SELL SELL

*This info should be as accurate as our info on Cipla, B Auto,Icici Axis,Exide*

CLSA ON PFC

Downgrade from Underperform to SELL;  cut target to Rs 155 from Rs 190

Profit fell by 19% YoY due to higher credit costs and weaker topline

Management sees potential for upgrades from restructured loans at 14%

Loan growth will stay weak as UDAY scheme is fully implemented

Slower rollout of UDAY can drive upside to 'reported' earnings

Investment in Tier II PSU banks' bonds dilutes capital allocation standards

RBI's offering of differentiated bank licence to long-term financiers will need to be watched out.

Shree Ajit Pulp and Paper Ltd(538795):

*Achche Din due to E-commerce boom*

Gujarat based SAPPL is engaged in production of Multi Layer Test Liners and M G Kraft paper with installed capacity of 90,000 tonnes. SAPPL has been doing well and stock looks undervalued at PERatio of 5.50xFY16Eeps of Rs 22(co has already achieved Eps of Rs 17.30 for 9 months:

            

            9m/FY16. FY15

Sales     166.       189

Dep.      3.86.       5.11

Interest  3.03.      4.48

PBT.       13.61.    9.88

PAT.        9.26.      7.12

Equity.                   5.35

BV.                         141

EpsRs.   17.30   13.30

SAPPL uses waste paper to produce Kraft paper which is mainly used by packaging industry including corrugated box mfrs. 

SAPPL has been doing extremely well in current year as *NP of 9 months is higher than NP of entire FY15*

*Stock is trading at 5.50xFY16Eeps and .85 Book Value*

MAIN TRIGGER/BRIGHT FUTURE: Due to unprecedented E-commerce boom, demand for corrugated boxes has zoomed which in turn had led to surge in demand of Kraft Paper. As a result,  *price of Kraft paper have risen 20% in last 2-3 months*

Recently Mr Dey, President of EICBMA had stated that " Recent hike of 20-25% in Kraft paper is unjustified due to shortage as production cost of Kraft paper have not gone up"

Co like SAPPL will be main beneficiary of sharp rise in Kraft paper prices.

*SAPPL can report Eps of 28 for FY17*

Stock is highly undervalued considering:

1) Trading@ 5.50xFY16Eeps

2)Quoting @.85Book Value

3) Book Value should further rise to Rs 160 as on 31st March2016

4) *Stock is tdg @4.30xFY17Eeps*

By all parameters, Shree Ajit Pulp is highly undervalued. If stock gets modest PERatio of just 8, it's share price should cross Rs 200 in next 6-9 months

*Q4 NP can grow 28% YoY*

Bajaj Auto Ltd Q4 result today:

1) Q4 NP should be nearly 800 crores as against 621 crores in quarter ended March15, decent growth YoY

2) FY16 NP should be more than 3600 crores as against 2814 cr for FY15

Stock is attractively priced as:
Month high Rs 2585
Weekly high Rs 2475
52week high Rs 2655

*TP Rs 2454 intraday. Rs 2508 May expiry*

CIPLA Q4:Worst Quarter


CNBC estimate:.      
      Sales 3293cr.                 Ebidta 610cr.
NP 362cr

Our Estimate:
Sales 3000 cr
Ebidta 240cr
NP 80cr
*Sales seen slipping 9%*
Cipla might have provided around 200 cr for inventory write-off.
After considering this one-off also (Ebidta would be 440cr and NP around 240cr) *Cipla margins  seem to be taking big hit*
Worst quarter in so many years.

DISH TV: Brokerage House Views:CLSA Upgrade DISH TV 6-8% TGT 116 From 110. JPM OVERWEIGHT MaintainTgt 115. CS Increase Tgt 108 From105

Update on Pasupati Acrylon: Although stock has touched new high today, we feel it is still worth buying:
1) Globally some acrylic fibre plants are on verge of closure. Formosa with capacity of more than 70000 tonnes is operating at half capacity and may completely close down its operations by next year
2) Viability: In India, new plants are unlikely to come up as Greenfield plant of Pasupati capacity will cost nearly 1000 crores. Hence, new plants not economically viable
Barring unforeseen circumstances, Pasupati can be 150-200 in 2-3 years

Religare on Dish TV:
Positional call:
*Buy Dish TV @ 95-95.50, Stop loss 92.80, Target 99.40*

*DISH TV*Q4 Breaking News:
Q4 NP should be 100 cr.
Which means:
*185% rise YoY* as NP for March 15 quarter was 35cr

*Beating Bloomberg est by whopping 35%*
Result today
Stock should cross Rs 100

Pasupati Acrylon Ltd:Q4

*NP 13.45cr vs Loss of 2.80 cr*
EBIDTA *22.94cr vs 3.72cr*
EBIDTA margin *16.87%*vs 2.91%
Cash Profits: *21.71cr* vs 1.52cr
Sales *11945mt* vs 8714mt
PAL has reported huge turnaround 20.19cr in Q4 yoy.
PAL has only 10cr long term debt and aims to become *Debt free* in FY17
Debtfree co with FY17Eeps of Rs 7: TP Rs 60 in 1 year

Power sector financing: PFC, REC might have to overhaul portfolio

The two state-owned and largest lenders to the power sector have had a dip in their loan sanctions over the past four years.

Power Finance Corporation's (PFC's) loan sanction are down 41 per cent from what it was in 2012-13, to Rs 44,328 crore in the past financial year. For Rural Electrification Corporation (REC), sanctions fell seven per cent in 2014-15, from 2012-13. In 2015-16, though, its loan sanctions rose to Rs 54,422 crore, owning to a rise in renewable energy (RE) projects asking for financing.

Loan disbursement is showing a similar downward trend in PFC, sliding 27 per cent in the past four financial years. As for REC, the disbursement numbers are mixed — RE at zilch, negative in generation and slight growth in transmission.

PFC officials said the pipeline of big-ticket generation projects was empty. As for independent power projects based on conventional fuel, 18-20 Gw capacity is without any power purchase agreement. In the past five years, no generation project has achieved financial closure, by market data.

“These projects will come for a loan proposal only when they sign purchase contracts. But, then, power prices in the spot market have come down to Rs 3 a unit, making states choose short-term power purchase than sign long-term agreements," said an official. Senior executives at REC and PFC acknowledged their top line could be hurt due to lack of investment in the sector, especially conventional power generation. “The bottom line (profits) would remain intact as existing loans undergo restructuring,” said a PFC official, requesting anonymity. The chairmen of REC and PFC did not reply to mails seeking their responses.

At Rs 1.33 lakh crore, PFC and REC are the largest lenders to the state electricity boards (SEBs), which are now cumulatively battling debt exposure of Rs 4 lakh crore. The new Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY) aims to restructure this debt by floating sovereign guaranteed bonds at market rates. It also restricts future borrowings by states till their respective distribution companies (discoms) clear their books.

In the bond issuance under UDAY by eight states, PFC and REC did not pick up any. The Union ministry of power had said there was no pressure on state lenders to pick up these bonds. This would help them fund fresh investment. Another round of lending to power discoms or SEBs would happen only after they turn around financially. “We have not accepted applications of the states for short-term loans, as UDAY envisaged. We will only finance operational expenditure and that would be a per cent of the SEB’s revenue  ast year. As most of them are loss making, UDAY is the hinge here for future lending proposals,” said a senior REC official, not wanting to be named.

Analysts said there was a looming downgrade threat for PFC and REC. With no new generation projects coming up and loans extended to the distribution sector undergoing restructuring, the two could be looking at a complete overhaul in their portfolio – moving more towards transmission and distribution and the upcoming RE segment.

However, challenges abound in these two sectors as well, as the lending model is different from typical power generation, and difficult. “These two lenders are used to long-term financing. Both transmission and renewables involve at least three cycles of re-finance,” said a Delhi-based sector expert.

In RE, there is a beeline of projects but foreign lenders are not comfortable with the terms and tenure of lending of state-owned lenders. The lenders, said the analyst, would have to change their terms to accommodate the upcoming sectors.

Source: Business Standard

Power Finance Corpn:
1) March 15 quarter:NP 1560crore
2) Dec15 quarter NP: 1582 crore
*Q4 should be 775-850cr( after Adjustments)*
With such steep decline(45-50%) YoY and QoQ, PFC should fall below Rs 160
SELL

Power Finance Corpn: Down 2%. Considering big upsurge in NPAs and deteriorating asset quality and big impact next year of UDAY scheme, stock is poised for a sharp fall. As per our sources , PFC didn't put some client accounts as NPA although same accounts marked as NPAs last year itself by other lenders. Hence, CAG is insisting to mark such client accounts as NPA. In view of same, NPAs of PFC bound to surge and profit margins to take hit

Pasupati Acrylon Ltd(500456):                     Huge Turnaround: *TP Rs 32 in 2 weeks, Rs 60-70 in 1 year*
PAL is the largest producer of acrylic fibre in India with production capacity of 40,000 TPA. Until 2 years back, co was suffering from high raw material prices ACN which is 100% imported in India. However, new plants of ACN came up ( earlier only in Europe) and Price of  ACN dropped to 900 dollars/tonne as against earlier price of 1400 dollars. It has led to change in fortunes of PAL.
a) FY15: Sales 543crores. EBIDTA Rs 40.18cr. PBT 25.24crores. Co provided one-off Rs 3.47crores ( CDR recompense) . After deferred tax of 7.20crores, NP was 14.57crorrs.However, *real NP Rs 25.24 CR as deferred tax only accounting entry and before one-off*
b) In current year, for 9 months, *EBIDTA is 38.31 crores*.After one-off Rs 3.07 crores and deferred tax, NP Rs 16.48 crores. But again *real NP is 28.59cr as deferred tax is accounting entry and without one-off*
c) GAME CHANGER: Due to steeply lower ACN, PAL is on threshold of take-off. For *Q4 alone, PAL should report EBIDTA of 23crores. Without/before deferred tax, Q4NP Rs 20 crores*and
NP ( without one-off/deferred tax) for FY16 Rs 48-49 crores.

*EBIDTA margin*
*FY15 :7.40%*
*FY16: 9.50% for 9 months*
*Q4FY16E: 18.4%*
 PAL has extremely bright future considering:
1) No expansion/new addition of capacity in acrylic fibre industry in last 15 years. As a result, due to demand-supply equilibrium, not only plant is operating at 100% capacity, but strong pricing power has emerged.
2) Raw material prices will remain benign due to huge new capacities.
3) No new capacities of acrylic fibre for next 2 years at least which means strong margin growth for PAL.
In FY16, PAL has 43000 tonnes and has emerged as most cost efficient acrylic fibre producer in India ( very low power cost and lower other overheads).
Further PAL *will become debt free soon as co likely to repay 10 crore debt in next 2 quarters*

*Q1 and FY17E: For Q1 of FY17, NP can be 22-23 crores. For FY17, PBT can be 85crores and PAT Rs 72-75 crores*
Considering largest producer of A Fibre, most cost efficient, *very high Ebidta margin* and FY17Eeps of 8+, PAL stock will be treated. *This writer will not be surprised if stock becomes Rs 150 in 2-3 years*
On 20th,PAL will announce Q4 results. Q4 NP can be 20 crores (Loss of 2.80cr in quarter ended March15).

SPICEJET Ltd:
Bloomberg estimate: Rs 122 cr NP
Our estimate/info: *Q4 NP to be more than 200 crores which means 70% higher than Bloomberg*
Result tomorrow. Stock can be in 3 digits soon
Spicejet may also go for strategic partnership/JV with Qatar Airways

Power Finance Corpn:Positional Sell: (Revised latest update)   *Big surge in NPAs: Dismal Q4*:  TP 164, 158
As against NPA provision of 293cr in 9 months *NPA provisioning in *Q4 alone can be 800+cr*
Bloomberg/market estimate is 1572cr

As per our reliable estimate/ info, *Profit will be Rs 1050 cr. That includes *one-time write back of 300cr*

After Adjustments,  *NP can be in 775-850 CR* . Huge miss *  Dont miss to SELL June Series

 *Smallcap Pharma Pick: SMS Pharma*:                          Doyens like RJ and MOSL are extremely bullish on Pharma stock. In such a scenario, Hyderabad based SMS Pharma is excellent pick in smallcap Pharma segment.                                Shortly, * value unlocking will take place as co will demerge it's non- regulatory biz into a separate entity* . Regulatory (USFDA) biz will remain in listed SMS Pharma. Shareholders will get 1 share of SMS Laboratories ( demerger ratio 1:1) which will be listed at Bse Nse. Estimated ratio of topline of demerger entities should be 50:50. Demerger will result in big wealth addition for the shareholders.                         In the meantime, SMS has reported *25% rise in NP for Q4*

SMS Pharma Standalone YoY Q4

Revenues at `157.3 cr vs `147 cr, up 7%

PAT at `12.92cr vs `10.34 cr, up 25%

Higher other expenses on US FDA charges, R&D and new plant setup costs.           SMS is targeting 15% CAGR for next 5 years.                     TP Rs 130 in 3 months, Rs 175 in 12 months

Technical View on UCO Bank by Mr Rajesh ( highly skilled technical expert):         UCO Bank *May series TP 29.4*                                         Positional target in  MTF 21.3

UCO Bank Ltd(TP Rs 21-24): *A must read: Bleeding on all fronts:Worst placed in Indian banking space*

DenOfWealth Exclusive:
1) *Actual Loss for Q4 Rs 3390cr*: UCO has declared Q4 Loss of 1715cr. However, this loss is after DTA/DTL write back of Rs 1681cr. Thus, ACTUAL LOSS from operations for Q4 is whopping 3390 CR.
2) UCO has shown FY16 Loss at 2799 CR ( after DTA/DTL Rs 1681cr). Thus, *actual Loss for FY16 is Rs 4480cr*
3)GNPA 15.43%
4) Nnpa 9.09%
5) Capital Adequacy Ratio has fallen to 9.83% which is much below RBI prescribed 12%. Moreover, this *CAR after considering Revaluation Reserve of Rs 2365cr. But for same, CAR would have bn still lower*
6) Fresh Slippages in FY 16 Rs 14942cr out of which *7794cr in Q4 alone. Fresh slippage are 11.02% of Advance whereas RBI guidelines prescribe fresh slippage upto 1% only*
7) Bad Loans ballooned from 1836cr to 6299cr
8)Pension fund from 630cr to 1228cr
9)*Advance down* 19.74%YTY
10)*Demand deposit down* 23.4% YTY
11)*Claims not acknowledged as debt* Rs 1725cr. If it crystalizes, another big blow
12)*Interest income* down 12.56% YTY
13)*Operating profit* down 26.61%
14)*Income from sale of investment* down 29%
*Q4FY16/Q4FY15*:
a)*NIM 1.63% only* (2.12%)
b)*Return on Asset*-3%(.35%)
c)*Return on Equity*-27%
d)*Profit per employee* :Loss 6.92lacs(.89lacs)
e)*Cost Income Ratio* 60.81%(39.26%)
f)*Yield on Investment* 9.10%(10.24%)
*Not one +ve. Each parameter -ve/down*
Finally borrowings have increased by 68.56%
Operational Risk Weight has increased from 9826 cr to 12702cr
With sharp deterioration on all fronts, revival of its fortunes is unlikely without HUGE govt support as Bank will not be able to raise funds thru IPO or Tier II
*Stock likely to make new low. SELL SELL*

We already gave 100% accurate Breaking News on many many stocks in last 2 weeks. We assure that we shall Break News on another 15+ stocks in next few days. Same are uploaded on our blog and Telegram imdtly. However many times we are not able to inform you guys thru WhatsApp due to paucity of time and we not whole time on WhatsApp as we have other biz interest also. Hence, in order to get INSTANT access to each recommendation, we advise you to register yrself at our denofwealth telegram. It is absolutely free. No fee

BUY NOW ( Result tomorrow)
*SMS Pharma* should report 40% growth in NP yoy
FY16 NP can be 49cr as against 35cr in FY15
52 week high Rs 137
Can be Rs 110-115 early next week

SMS Pharma: *Value unlocking through demerger in ratio of 1:1*

We feel that UCO should fall to our TP of 28 as Bank may have *negative Return on Assets of -2.5%*

Short UCO Bank, target Rs 32: Manoj Murlidharan

Manoj Murlidharan of Religare Securities is of the view that one can short UCO Bank for target of Rs 32

WORST ASSET QUALITY in Indian banking space: UCO Bank Ltd:            *GNPA 15%+, Nnpa 10% and FY16 Loss almost 80% of market cap*

Q4 results today.

1) *GNPA will be more than 15%(a record in Indian banking space)*

2) *Nnpa 9.50%+(again highest in India).*

3) *CAR falling to 9%*  Much lower than RBI prescribed 12%.

4) *FY16 Loss around 2900-3000 cr ( 80% of market cap)*
For Q4 *alone* UCO should report LOSS of *more than 1800crores*.
*Highest ever NPA in Indian banking space* So far no other PSB has reported such high NPA.

Further, huge fresh *slippages*
Large no of *top 50 defaulters* are UCO's clients
With such huge deterioration in asset quality and sharply low Capital Adequacy Ratio, bank may come under RBI's monthly supervision

*Sell Sell*

TP Rs 28

🔹UBS ON EXIDE

Maintain Buy, target `182
Sales 4% ahead of expectations, results ahead of consensus
Higher sales due to improved demand in automotive & industrial battery segments
Expect positive momentum of inverter sales in Q4FY16 to continue in Q1FY17
Buy rating driven by strong brand franchise & reasonable valuations

IDFC SEC: As Industrial houses will not get Bank licenses, the likes of Shriram (due to Piramal), MMFS & Rel Capital are ruled out from becoming Banks. Shriram  Transport Finance 👎🏿👎🏿👎🏿

Breaking News SKS Micro Q4 :
As against Bloomberg estimate of 87 crores, SKS should report NP of 83 crores

Shriram Transport Finance :      As expected, the scrip corrected yesterday after making year-high @ Rs.1127. The share can go down to Rs.1000 or even to Rs.990, a one-year strong resistance area, which has been comfortably broken on the upside, in spite of poor results. After this technical break-out, the share is likely to trade in the Rs.900 -1100 price range for about 2-4 weeks. If the new support area at Rs.1,000 is not held in the short term, then the price can fall down to Rs.900, which is a long term strong support area where the convergence of 100 & 200 DEMA is placed.

 G R CHARI

Our take: Mr Chari's accuracy ratio has been extremely commendable. Sharp spike in price on Monday was caused, apart from upgrades by various brokerage houses, by wild rumours ( Ajay Piramal taking mgtmnt control). Business model of co is good but Q4 financials in terms of drastic fall in NP and big spike in NPAs really bad.Moreover, upgrades by brokerage are normally long term TP but operators by spreading rumours did ramp up the price. We are hopeful that share price is poised for further fall

If the below doesn't convince u that stock markets are irrational.  Then might as well stop investing

Shriram Transport Finance Shriram Transport Finance Company rallied 14% to Rs.1,071.25.  The company reported standalone net profit of Rs.143.90 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2016, registering decline of 54.57% yoy and 61.63% qoq.
The stock is currently trading above its 50 DMA.

The scrip opened at Rs. 955 and has touched a high and low of Rs. 1082.2 and Rs. 955 respectively. So far 2525062(NSE+BSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs. 21408.4 crore.
The BSE group 'A' stock of face value Rs. 10 has touched a 52 week high of Rs. 1017.35 on 14-Oct-2015 and a 52 week low of Rs. 736.5 on 21-Jan-2016. Last one week high and low of the scrip stood at Rs. 998.4 and Rs. 928.25 respectively.
The promoters holding in the company stood at 26.05 % while Institutions and Non-Institutions held 26.19 % and 47.76 % respectively.
The stock is currently trading above its 50 DMA.

Shriram Transport Finance: Big deterioration in Asset quality

Q4 NP down 54% to 144:crores (317 crores).

GrossNPA up by 104% to 6.18%(3.80%)
NetNPA: up by 201% to 1.91%(0.79%)
TP May expiry Rs 885

ICICI Bank: TP 210 May Expiry: Q4 NP plunges 76% to 702 crores despite higher forex gain and higher income from Sale of Investments in subsidiaries.            
     ICICI Bank Would Have Reported Loss If Deferred Tax Adjustment Excluded:
ICICI Bank: Deferred Tax Credit Of Rs.2,199 Cr Vs Rs.247 Cr (YoY).
Once stock breaches 231, target 220