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Friday, 18 November 2016

Do not be impatient to cash-in into the market right now or be in a hurry to buy stocks (even of fundamentally strong companies) from a medium to longer term perspective. The markets are going in for much deeper correction and this possibly indicates more bad news is in the offing. My advice will be to bide your time as there are too many uncertainties surrounding our market and it is likely to be reactive to both internal & external news and developments. Any future rally is more likely to be a technical, pull-back rally and will not be sustainable unless the market goes through a period of consolidation, say, for at least 2-3 months -- the longer the better for a strong rally in the future like the recent one which ran it's course from March to September 2016. .At the moment, I see a dis-connect between the Indian & the US market -- while Bond prices are falling and stocks are rising in the US in expectation of increase in the interest rate and reflation, the opposite is happening in India. Also, contrary to public perception, a deflationary process of falling prices is likely to curtail demand and it will not provide the required impetus to the economy to race ahead. Consequent upon demonetization, the economy will experience a liquidity crunch as people and corporates will need time to adjust to the new environment as well as the unpredictability of the new challenges that are thrown at it. In the circumstances, I don't think the markets have bottomed out and I expect the broader market to correct another 5-7% from current levels (though select individual stocks may correct more) and,after that, the market is likely to go into a consolidation phase, at least till February 1, 2017, when the budget for the next fiscal will be presented. [Refer to my WhataApp message sent a couple of days back]. 
After factoring the above, the indicative prices for the stocks are given below which may be a safe level to buy. However, it will be prudent to keep some 10-15% cash handy to buy in case the stocks correct more than the price indicated by me.

NMDC: Rs.95-100.
Coal: Rs.275-280.
Syndicate Bank: Rs.55-60.
TFCI: Rs.40
Sumeet: Rs.25.
Moil: Rs.275

GR Chari

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