SHORT Coal India Ltd @ 328.60. SL 333. Target 325, 320 intraday
Chinese miners raise output after Govt call to curb Coal prices- Reuters ( big negative for Coal)

Highly informative :Triveni Engineering:
Post demerger, Triveni Industries Ltd will consist of 7 sugar plants, 105MW Cogen power and 160KLPD distillery ( amongst largest in  India) and our projection for TIL as under:

                     FY17E. FY18E
Cash Profit.  320cr.  360cr

Repayment
Term Loan.    130cr.  185cr

*TIL likely to be DebtFree( term loan) by 2020*

Demerged TIL (sugar/ allied biz) projection:

                             FY17E
Reserves.            620cr

Tangible NW.      730cr

Total Assets.     2800cr

Current Assets. 1900cr

Current Ratio.     1.20

*D:E Ratio.            0.64*

Interest Cov
Ratio.                    3.50

With expectation of sharply reducing debt and high profits and above sound financials, post demerger *TIL can be Rs 60-70 by March 17.*

Hence if investors now buy Triveni Engineering ( cum basis), TIL can be sold and will be holding *Triveni Engineering( ex basis) absolutely free of cost*

Sugar Spot :Overnight Blasted +6.35%
Weekly jump of +8.95%
YTD is up by 42.95 %
Heading towards $0.247-0.262

TRIVENI ENGINEERING holding stock of 28 lac quintal ( valued @ 29.15) as on 30th June is big beneficiary of sugar price rise. Profit from this Inventory *nearly 200cr*
Stock should be Rs 90 on record date for demerger in November 16

*Debt Free Engineering co available at attractive valuations: DHP India Ltd*

Calcutta based DHP India Ltd is engaged in production of Valves and
other accessories used in gas cyliners.   Gas cylinders are used by
all OMCs like HPCL, BPCL, Indian Oil. DHP has reported fabulous nos
for Q1 and is available at very low PE Multiples and only 1.1xBook
Value with high promoter holding and hence, the recommendation.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE:

      Q1/FY17   Q1/FY16      

Sales     10.67      9.42            

PBT         1.80     0.93              

PAT        1.32       0.63              

Equity                   3.00                  

                                   

Book Value Rs                                       119/

Eps Rs     4.40          2.09            

DHP India had reported EPS of Rs 16.34 for FY16 and stock is available
at PE Ratio of 7.90xFY16 Eps

FUTURE OUTLOOK:

DHP has reported fabulous for Q1 wherein Sales have gone up by 10% but
PAT has flared up 100% from 63 lacs to 1.32 crores. Q1 EPS is Rs 4.40

           2016-17E  2017-18E


Sales          44            48

PAT             6.60        7.80

*EPS Rs        22           26*

DHP India, in the field of high precision engineering, is an
attractive buy considering:

1. DHP is trading at 5.85xFY17E Eps

2. DHP is trading at 4.96xFY18E Eps

3. CMP is 1.10xBook Value

4. *Debt Free*

5. As per Graham method, valuation of co works out to Rs 210 per share

6.  Promoter stake 74.37%

Even if DHP gets modest valuation of 12, stock price should be Rs 250
at least. Equity is so small that if big buying from HNI investors
emerges, stock can be even Rs 400 in 18 months

Crompton Greaves Ltd:SELL

 Morgan Stanley has equal-weight rating with *target at Rs 61* per share as ongoing restructuring leads to margin uncertainty

*IDFC has given Sell call TP 72*

HDFC too has given Sell call TP 76

*Fundamentally also stock is overpriced as Q1 Eps (0.15) and cmp much higher than 52 week low of Rs 33*

Our take: CG can come down to 74 Sept expiry. SL 81.80

HORRIBLE Q1:COAL INDIA TP 300-305 SEP EXPIRY

Net Sales 17796 Cr vs 18956 Cr, *down 6.11%*

Ebidta 4254Cr vs 4801Cr, *down 11.40%*

PAT 3065Cr vs 3596Cr, *down 14.85%*

*NP after Comprehensive Income takes bigger hit* DOWN 17.55%(3130 vs 3796)

AUGUST DESPATCH DOWN 9.6%

CIL BREAKING FD TO FUND BUYBACK 3650 CR

INVENTORY PILE UP DUE TO SLACK DEMAND

*Outlook for Q2,Q3 Weak*

CIL can be 282-288 Oct Expiry

Results of Coal India: As estimated by denofwealth, CIL has missed on all parameters ( sales, Ebidta, PAT). Stock may tomorrow open gap down at around 320-322.  Stock may touch 300-305 Sept Expiry

Q2 unlikely to see any recovery as August despatched already down 9.6%. Coming months also, despatch may remain subdued due to closure of some power plants. No silver lining in near future for CIL.
Sell. Sell. Sell

KAMADGIRI FASHIONS LTD: TP Rs 105/

Rationale for Recommendation:

1) Own brands TRUE VALUE and TRUE LINEN gaining popularity

2)Strategic tie-up with FUTURE group to supply 2 million garment
pieces every year

3) Kishor Biyani holds 33.53% stake in KFL through his unlisted companies

4. Consitently dividend paying company

5. Supplying garments to all leading brands in India including
Raymond, Park Avenue, Indigo Nation, Wills, John Players, Blackberry
etc

Mumbai based Kamadgiri Fashion Ltd (KFL) is engaged in production of
Textile Fabrics and Garments.

a) WEAVING DIVISION:  KFL has modern weaving plant comprising of
Sulzer, Somet and Psudocama  weaving machines

b) GARMENT DIVISION: KFL has been supplying
garments to all leading players like Parx, Lee Cooper, UMM, Rig, Park
Avenue, Arrow BlackBerry, Raymond etc. KFL is one of the major
supplier of garments to Future group and now, through strategic
tie-up, will supply 2 million pieces of garments to Future group each
year.



FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE:

For FY16, KFL has reported turnover of Rs 300 crores with PAT of 1.90
crores. Equity had increased from 5.06 crores to 5.44 crores after
allotment of shares to nonpromoter group @ Rs 62 per share.  KFL has
declared div of Rs 1.50 and CMP is cum-dividend

                           Q1/2016-17      Q1/2015-16

Sales                      70                  68

PBT                       1.22              0.19

PAT                        0.80              0.13

Equity                    5.87               5.06

EPS Rs                 1.36                0.13

 KFL has posted VAST
improvement in profit margins for Q1 wherein its sales have gone up
only 3% but PBT has zoomed from 19 lacs to 1.22 crores. PAT stands at
80 lacs vs 13 lacs.

                          2016-17E         2017-18E

Sales                    320                350

Net Profit               4.20               5.50

EPS Rs                  7.15              9.35

VALUATIONS:

Current market cap is only 46 crores vs sales of 300 crores for FY16.

Strategic tie-up with FUTURE group to supply 2 million garments every
year ensures steady business growth for KFL.

In House brands TRUE VALUE and TRUE LINEN gaining popularity and will
enhance KFL profit margins

Kishor Biyani holds 33.50% stake

At cmp, KFL is trading @ 8xFY18Eeps which is on lower side

Even if KFL gets modest PERatio of 15, its share price should be Rs
105 based upon FY17 earnings and Rs 140 based upon FY18 earnings

CLSA ON SUN PHARMA:

Raise target to Rs 1050 from Rs 1020 Maintain Buy
* Halol clearance will be a key catalyst for the stock
* Increase our FY17CL EPS estimate by 3% post the 1Q results
* Key geographies delivered growth in line with our expectations


*CITI ON SUN PHARMA:

 Maintain Buy, Target Rs 975
* 1Q results are not as strong as headline suggests, buoyed by one time sales
* Competition in Gleevec & US derma market could put some pressure on profitability
* Synergies from Ranbaxy integration, Halol resolution are potential positives

Technical Outlook: Sun Pharma heading towards 796, 825. If it cross, 888 possible

Dividend Yield:TFCI vs others:

Name.    Paid Rs   Yield

SKS.          Nil.           Nil

Canfin.      10.         0.70%

DHFL.          2.          0.76%

IBullHF.        9.          1.10%

LICHF.        5.50.      1%

TFCI.       1. 80.    *4%*

TFCI miles ahead of ALL other NBFCs in terms of Dividend Yield and payout ratio
Dividend of TFCI for FY17 should be Rs3

Multibagger stock in Packaging industry:

HINDUSTAN ADHESIVES LTD Bse code  514428

HAL is engaged in production of adhesive tapes for industrial and consumer packaging.

Stock is trading @ 4xFY17Eeps

Mktcap only 20cr

Introduction of Shrink Film, a high margin product

 Q1 PAT rises 550% to 92 lacs vs 14lacs. Q1 Eps 1.80

FY16Eps was 5.12
FY17Eeps  9.50-10
FY18Eeps 12-14

Awesome Q1 Tourism Fin Corpn Ltd:

Q1FY17 PAT 20.15 vs 3.25 Q4FY16, rising BY 520%

Q1FY17 PAT 20.15cr vs 16.45cr Q1FY16, rising 22%

NII 53.95cr vs Q4FY16 36.49cr, rising 47%

NII 53.95cr vs Q1FY16 46.97cr, rising 15%

Annualised Eps  Rs 10

Cmp 0.70xBValue, lowest in NBFC industry. Scope for huge expansion

TFCI has stopped funding to Real Estate and Equity.

Even if TFCI gets modest PERatio of 12, based upon current year earning, stock should be 120 in 6-9 months.

Some big development taking place. Stock can be 300+ in 2018. Undersigned had recommended Canfin @ 110 in 2013

Triveni Engineering: TP Rs 90 in 3 months:

1) Holds shares of Triveni Turbine worth Rs 900 cr vs mktcap of Rs 1420cr

2) Demerging Sugar &allied business , post which TEIL will have engineering biz and Triveni Industries Ltd (TIL) comprising 7 sugar factories, 105MW power and 160KLPD distillery would be listed. Shareholders will get one share each of both companies

3) Q1 PAT 49cr vs Loss of 89cr. Q1 Eps 1.88 vs -3.46

4) SUGAR BUSINESS: Unrealised profit of inventory
as on 30th June is 187cr( only sugar, excluding distillery, power).
FY17E EBIT 390CR, PBT 290CR, PAT 225CR. EPS 9
Even if Sugar (TIL) gets PERatio of 8( prevailing industry is 10), TIL (sugar biz) should be Rs 70-72 once it is listed (in Nov16)

TEIL (engineering biz) should quote 40 in Nov16 ( will also have TTL shares worth Rs 35/ share). Detailed report on engineering prospects separately afterwards.

Our Top Pick in Sugar industry

Crompton Greaves Ltd:SELL

 Morgan Stanley has equal-weight rating with target at Rs 61 per share as ongoing restructuring leads to margin uncertainty

Our take: Stock appears highly overpriced. Short covering over. We feel that stock should be down 8-10% in September series ( if mkts don't shoot up).    

IDFC has also given SELL with TP Rs 72

 Technical view of a leading brokerage firm:

 Resistance at 87 and support at 79 . Target 75, once it breaches 79

Standard Industries Ltd:

Huge upside. Can be even 8x in 3-4 years

1) Has 63 acre land in Ghansoli N Mumbai where going rate is Rs 18-22 cr per acre. SIL thru JV with a big brand developer of Mumbai will get 300+cr cash and 6 lac s f built up area of I.T. park. It will fetch 40+cr lease rent annually
In this city, Cidco had sold residential plots @ 90 cr/ acre

2) SIL owns 30000 s f in Stanrose Aptmnt sea facing prime location. Value 150+cr

3) SIL also has 16835 s f plot in Sewree Mumbai. Value Rs 180 cr approx

4) Finally SIL has 3200 acre ( yes 3200) Salt Pan land in Surat

Best play in real estate segment

Downside negligible
A definite multibagger

Crompton Greaves Ltd:SELL

 Morgan Stanley has equal-weight rating with target at Rs 61 per share as ongoing restructuring leads to margin uncertainty

Our take: Stock appears highly overpriced. Short covering over. We feel that stock should be down 8-10% in September series ( if mkts don't shoot up)