Sell Uco Bank Fut @ 39.50 and hedge by Buying 40 Call @ 1.60-1.75....Hold till May expiry end...Uco Bank Tgt Rs 30

CNBC-TV18 ALERT: ICICI Bank Would Have Reported Loss If Deferred Tax Adjustment Excluded:

ICICI Bank: Deferred Tax Credit Of Rs.2,199 Cr Vs Rs.247 Cr (YoY).

SELL SELL

ICICI Bank Ltd:
CNBC estimates Q4 NP to be 3115 crores. However we estimate ACTUAL NP to be Less than 750 crores(Yes Seven Hundred Fifty Crores).
In Q4 higher forex gain.
Gross NPA can cross 5.80%(26000+ cr) as against 3.78% in previous year.
Net NPA can touch 3%( roughly 13000 cr) as against 1.61% in previous year.
Higher Income from sale of Investments also
Stock may plunge to 210-215 early next week
Our estimates likely to be accurate ( as in Maruti, Axis, Exide, Idea, GNFC etc)

Technical Update:         Buy Exide at 151. sl 148. Tgt 156 159

Exide: Q4 Net Profit up whopping 44% vis-a-vis CNBC estimates.      

 Exide Q4: Net Profit At Rs 177.5 Cr Vs CNBC-TV18 Poll Of Rs 123.2 Cr

Total Income At Rs 1,761.4 Cr Vs CNBC-TV18 Poll Of Rs 1,364 Cr

EBITDA At Rs 267.4 Cr Vs CNBC-TV18 Poll Of Rs 208 Cr

EBITDA Margin At 15.2% Vs CNBC-TV18 Poll Of 12.6%

Consolidated Net Profit for FY16 HIGHEST EVER Rs 714 crores ( Market/analysts have surprisingly considered only Standalone NP of 622 crores)
UBS ON EXIDE
Maintain Buy, target `182
Sales 4% ahead of expectations, results ahead of consensus
Higher sales due to improved demand in automotive & industrial battery segments
Expect positive momentum of inverter sales in Q4FY16 to continue in Q1FY17
Buy rating driven by strong brand franchise & reasonable valuations

Breaking News: Exide Ind(Q4 result today)set to report Spectacular NP: Best Buy  Intraday,BTST,May Series):

Exide should announce massive rise in its NP today @ Rs 168 crores:
1) CNBC estimates Q4 NP at 123 crores. It means HUGE jump of 38%.
2) Means 23% rise YoY as PAT for quarter ended March2015 was 138 cr
3) Means 27.70% rise QoQ as PAT for quarter ended Dec2015 was 134 crores.
4) Even Bloomberg estimate of Rs 151 cr will be beaten  by 13%.
This will be highest quarterly profit in last 7 quarters. And, after a gap of 5 years, yearly profit set to cross 600 crore mark.
Stock still considerably lower than its 52 week high of Rs 182.
Stock is poised to make NEW 52 week high in May series
TP Rs 156, 167, 174,187
For decent gains, investors should buy May series
(Axis Bank nos EXACTLY same as reported by us but FY17 guidance about NPAs spoiled the rise. Exide being producer of batteries, no negative in store as demand from auto, telecom, defence continues to rise)

Axis Bank
| Clarity on corporate book stress is a positive

Company Update BUY `675

Axis Bank’s move to provide clarity on the stress in its corporate book is a positive step in our opinion. The size of stressed corporates loans is `226bn (6% of customer assets), with 60% of these likely to flow into NPL category. While it has not resulted in material change in our estimates (cut by c.5% for FY17/18E), the move would definitely boost confidence. Though management has guided for credit cost of 125-150bps in FY17, Axis Bank’s strong operating profit levels (over 5% to loans) can easily absorb these shocks. During 4Q16, strong trends in retail business continued with retail loan and fee growth of 26% YoY and 15% YoY respectively. NIM expanded to 3.97% and the bank created contingent provisions of `3bn in 4Q. Axis Bank remains one of the best recovery plays.

JM Fin

Yes BankQ4: As per our estimate, NII should be 1240 crores as against CNBC estimate of 1215 crores and we estimate NP to be 690-693 cr as against CNBC estimate of 689 crores. Stock has already run up sharply in last 3 weeks

Breaking News: BUY BUY

AXIS Bank Ltd:
Q4 nos will beat market estimates.
Axis will report PAT of 2154 cr as against CNBC estimate of 2027 crores

NII 4520 crores as against CNBC estimate of 4295 crores

Gross NPA 1.67 as against estimate of 1.80

Improvement on all parameters

TP Rs 492, 498, 514

Best Short Sell:Breaking News: MARUTI(Result today:Big miss):
For Q4, Citi estimates PAT of 1379cr and Bloomberg  estimate PAT of Rs 1194cr.      
CNBC estimates Maruti to report 1240cr PAT.           However, denofwealth.blogspot.in estimates Q4 PAT to be Rs 1132 crores, down 12% YoY (1284cr) and down 5.20% vis-à-vis Bloomberg estimates. Q4 PAT to be LOWER by roughly 8% even against CNBC estimates.

Stock may touch Rs3654 (STBT)
TP Rs 3480 May expiry
Stock should witness heavy selling as Maruti likely to CUT FY17 volume growth to 9-10% compared to earlier 12-14% due to capacity constraints, NGT diesel car issue, cost weighing due to new launches (Baleno, Brezza) and Yen issue
Investors may remember our sell call on Maruti in Jan2016 (Q3 results) at 4150. Subsequently Maruti made new low of 3202.

Indian industrialists , marketmen and economists since years have been singing only one CD of rate reduction. It is like shaving head of an overly obese person to reduce his weight.
Why promoters like Rahul Bajaj Mahindra TVS group never demand interest rate reduction.
Industrialists with inefficient track record, lacking vision, those who believe in siphoning off huge huge funds not only at project implementation stage ( over invoicing of power plants imported from China via Dubai invoicing, coal import same modus operandi) and those who borrow aggressively ( as if they don't intend to repay) are most vociferous for rate cut. Who is telling them borrow lacs of crores?
Product costs also increase due to successive raise in govt taxes. None has guts to tell govt to reduce taxes. They vl only target FD holders who have no lobby. They don't mind paying even 6 digit (gross) monthly salaries to shop floor workers and will not cut down their lavish styles of doing biz.
We compare only interest rates. Other countries have some other costs higher ( wage bill, transportation costs, administrative costs) compared to India.
Now we are moaning about low growth in bank deposits. They vl come down further if we keep on cutting down interest rates
Our country is different from advanced countries. There, govt takes care of senior citizens thru multiple schemes whether health care social security pension unemployment dole etc. So zero interest rates are immaterial to them and there, inflation much much lower than India. In India, do we have any of such schemes? No. Rather govt continues to suck out meagre savings till we die. There are crores of Indians who invest their hard earned savings ONLY in FD. No one thinks of this segment who are pillars of our entire banking industry. Such misguided partial rant only in India where billionaires want to multiply their billions at the cost of ordinary middle class wage earners. Shame to them
Disclosure: in my life I have never put a penny in FD

Best Short Sell Call:

TCS: Result today aftermarket hours. Negative surprise. Q4 PAT to be much lower than bloomberg estimates and market expecting even higher nos. Today, stock didn't fall much even after 940 mn dollar penalty ( which we feel co will have to pay as unlikely to win in appeal) as marketmen expecting Infosys type results. Our info/ estimates likely to be as accurate as our numerous calls in Q3 result season.

STBT tgt Rs 2410

Breaking News for Huge Gains:                 STANDARD INDUSTRIES LTD:

SIL should get 1st tranche of payment Rs 100 crores (against proposed
JV of 63 acre land in  Navi Mumbai) next month in May 2016. And
management has decided to reward the shareholders handsomely.

As per our fully reliable source, SIL should declare dividend of Rs 6
per share (120%). It will give DIVIDEND YIELD OF MASSIVE 22-23%.
Hence, stock price of SIL can cross Rs 50 in June/July.

Further, as and when SIL gets balance 150 crores, shareholders can
expect another and bigger dividend.

Investors can buy BIG BIG quantity and hold for few months to double their money

Earlier blog:
Listed at Bse and Nse, this Mafatlal group co is poised for brighter
days ahead as company will start reaping benefits of its big land bank
in Navi Mumbai.

SIL owns a big parcel of land 63 acres at prime location in Navi
Mumbai. This parcel of land is next to Corporate Headquarters of
Reliance group and ADAG Group and is touching the main road. In Navi
Mumbai (Near Vashi) this may be last piece of BIG parcel of land.
Prevailing market rates in this area are approx Rs 20 crores per acre
land although few kms away, CIDCO has auctioned plots (residential
which command higher rates) for as high as even 90 crores per acre.

Even if SIL land is valued @ 18 crore per acre, land value works out
to Rs 1130 crores. On equity of 32.17 crores, it works out to Rs 176
per share. However, due to tight liquidity in real estate sector,
these days, builders prefer to go for JV with land owners (instead of
lump sum payment to buy the land)

SIL is likely to sign very soon JV agreement for development of its 63
acre land for construction of IT Park as per following terms:

1.  SIL to get Rs 250 crore cash payment. THIS WORKS OUT TO Rs 39 PER SHARE

2.  To GET 6 LAC SQ FT SPACE IN PROPOSED IT PARK. Current Market value of 6
lac sq feet should be around 540 crores( should be substantially higher when project is ready as by that time, proposed airport should also be functional). THIS WORKS OUT TO Rs 84 PER
SHARE.

Thus, TOTAL CONSIDERATION OF THIS JV DEAL FOR SIL works out to roughly
 Rs 120+ per share

52 week high of SIL is Rs 31 and cmp is still lower than 52 week high price.

We feel that share price of SIL can go upto Rs 35 by April end , Rs 50 by June-end and
can be Rs75 in 9 months. Buying strongly recommended.

OUTLOOK OF JINDAL POLYFILMS LTD
The stock has moved out of the Rs.400-500 band and the next target is
Rs.550. The P/v has also doubled. Any dip to ~ Rs.475 will be a buy.
Investors should hold for higher targets of Rs.600 & above.

G R CHARI

Coal (I) made a big gap down from Rs.320 to Rs.300 in the first week of March and the trend is decidedly down. The share is racing down to the 2-year support level at Rs.250. On a rally from Rs.250, the share will face
strong resistance at Rs.300. Better avoid for the time being as the company made a hefty dividend payment in March '16 and unlikely to repeat it any time soon. The proposed disinvestment is also a dampener for the share.
Also, the off-take for coal by power companies is likely to be muted as they are sufficiently stocked and Coal may be required to hold higher inventory.

If you are looking for dividend yield, buy NMDC (on a correction to ~ Rs.90-92) or Nalco (@ ~ Rs.37).

G R CHARI

Yesterday,  we witnessed one of the sharpest correction in the index in 2016.

This correction looks to be more technical in nature after a smart rally of over 900 points in the Nifty and was part of global sell-off. All the sectoral indices led by the bank index closed sharply in the red. with the Nifty breaching 7,600 on an intraday basis, I expect the Nifty to go down further to 7,500 though the index managed to close above 7,600 yesterday. Every intraday rally will encounter profit booking and drag the index down on a closing basis. So smart, intraday rallies can be a shorting idea for traders. The level at 7,500 is likely be tested now and if the selling accelerates further, the Nifty can go down to ~ 7,250, which will be a 50% correction from the high of 7736 hit yesterday. This looks to be reasonable possibility as there not many positive news lined-up this month, but

companies reporting good numbers may not see a deep cut in price. The level of 7250 in the Nifty incidentally happens to be the gap-up area formed in the first week of March 2016 and the ongoing correction should end there, if the short term upward trend is not to be vitiated. Please note that, the gap-up at 7,250 formed in the Nifty is the equivalent of 14,400 in the bank nifty, which I mentioned in my previous mail. Both Nifty & Bank Nifty mimic

each other and position can be taken in either or both. However, these are rough, rule of thumb estimates and it will be better to keep the market movements under close watch before taking fresh positions.

G R CHARI

Mr Chari again on the dot: He on 1st April clearly predicted that Nifty can touch 7600 and it touched today. No charts with 'ifs' and 'buts' and no multiple level targets. He gave 1 target and it hit BULL's eye.   

 The Janet-factor has reinforced liquidity back to the market once again as seen from strong buying by FII in the past couple of days. The Nifty is temporarily facing resistance at ~ 7760 (25,500 for BSE) and can be facing exhaustion at higher levels. Strong buying from FII is getting neutralized by heavy selling from DII's (looks mainly from LIC to invest in/bailout cash-strapped PSB's). The short term trend based on 50-day EMA is placed firmly up, but the Nifty can move down to take support at 7,600 (100-day EMA) before it scales up to 7800. At the moment, the up-trend is in place as long as the Nifty trades above 7,500 (25,000 for BSE). It is a "buy on dip" type of market now and the leadership has once again shifted to FII who are fuelling the market funded by cheap money from abroad. RBI policy move on April 5 & Q4FY16 results are likely to be the focus area for the

market in April 2016.

G R CHARI

SOME DAMAGING INFO ON UCO BANK 

In Jan/Feb 2016, ALL our SHORT calls gave fabulous return to investing community, except UCO Bank which in fact has given losses to investors. Several investors have perhaps not yet squared off their SHORT positions and sending us messages to seek our latest position/advice on UCO.

Entire banking space has been marked by sharp recovery post budget due to various factors like Sharp run up in Nifty/Bank Nifty, short covering, bottom fishing, some brokerage houses becoming very bullish on PSBs  and finally, flood of rumours that PSBs ke acche din aa gaye

hain. 

We feel that sharp run up in share prices of PSBs may provide God-send opportunity once again (when Q4 results are due) to SHORT heavily for very big returns in short period. Reason is that Q3 for PSBs was tip of iceberg and results of Q4 should be far worse and this pain can be prolong throughout FY17. Statements of PM and FM are not going to help improve Balance Sheets of PSBs. NPA recovery is possible only if such a/cs are backed by adequate securities (which in reality is not the case). Easier to make statement than done. CMD of IDBI Bank makes outrageous statement that IDBI Bank will have zero NPAs in 3 years. He should be reminded that  SASF was created specifically to transfer entire 9000 cr worth NPAs to SASF which made IDBI Bank's NPAs zero.

But after that, NPAs of  IDBI Bank are much bigger. CMD knows that he will retire before expiry of 3 year period, so there is no harm in making utopian statements. Similarly, merger of PSBs in 6 banks became viral. This writer/investor has not come across any official communique from FM that he has proposed merger of PSBs in 6 entities and hence, such tweets appear to be stories written by Kader Khan (of Bollywood fame).  Investors have perhaps forgotten that how Essar promoters have indulged in brazen loot of bank money in 2003 or so when OTS was done for E Steel. But again, banks have proferred bounty of 40,000 crores to E Steel. Is it not corruption on part of bankers?

Opened  vaults to known thieves once again.  Everyone knows how CMD of a PSB was always called a doormat of Essar promoters as this bank had huge exposure of its loan book only to Essar group. Promoters have built PERSONAL empire of several billion dollars at expense of bank

money and minority shareholders. If any political party/ruling party does thorough and honest forensic audit type investigation in ALL listed and non-listed entities of Essar group, such revelations will come that scale of loot of Vijay M will pale into insignificance. Now, sitting over 40,000 crores of bank money, how shamelessly co is once again demanding big concessions from bankers.

Anyway coming to UCO Bank specifically:

We estimate that UCO Bank Q4 results will  be DISASTROUS in REAL SENSE, without exaggeration. We will not be surprised if post Q4 results, UCO Bank comes under direct monthly monitoring of RBI.  Reasons are:

1. A fact known only to very few: Several large  NPAs have been resorted to EVERGREEING by sanctioning interchangeability of Fund Based Limits to Non Fund Based Limits, say from Corporate Loan to FLC(foreign LC)/Standby LC. Such FLC/Standby LCs are for tenor of 2-3 years for discounting OVERSEAS. Proceeds of such LC/FLC are used for liquidating overdue accounts. Non Fund based Limits are not required to be classified as NPA for full tenor of LC/FLC. However, when  tenor such LCs after 2-3 years is over, Non Fund Based Limits are bound to devovle and wreck Balance Sheet of UCO Bank. As per our info, such modus operandi runs into few thousand crores.,

2. As per info, several FDs have been encashed by fraudsters and UCO Bank is yet to indemnify genuine FD Holders.

3. Similarly, as per our info, there are several fake LCs which are being disputed by UCO Bank.

4. UCO Bank has disbursed LARGE sums to several companies which had done bogus accounting to get loans and such companies are closed for all practical purposes and UCO Bank may not be able to recover even 5% of such exposures.

We feel that year end Audit by bank's auditors as well as by RBI will be very stringent (which normally is case for all banks). At that time, various chinks of UCO's armour will be exposed and bank may have to make HUGE HUGE provisioning. We will not be surprised if UCO Bank

reports loss of 2500-3500 Crores ONLY for Q4 Hence, we advise investors to hold on to their SHORT Positions until Q4 results are announced. 

We also advise investors not to buy at present PSBs for INVESTMENT. Depending on technicals, broader markets rising and trading calls, investors may take risk of trading as PSBs may be available at much lower prices after 2-6 months Q4 results are announced. In fact, investors with strong heart and patience can SHORT at current levels more quantity of UCO Bank April/May series. Stock can make new 52 week low after announcement of Q4 results. 

TOP PICK FOR MONDAY AND THE WEEK

STANDARD INDUSTRIES LTD:

Listed at Bse and Nse, this Mafatlal group co is poised for brighter
days ahead as company will start reaping benefits of its big land bank
in Navi Mumbai.

SIL owns a big parcel of land 63 acres at prime location in Navi
Mumbai. This parcel of land is next to Corporate Headquarters of
Reliance group and ADAG Group and is touching the main road. In Navi
Mumbai (Near Vashi) this may be last piece of BIG parcel of land.
Prevailing market rates in this area are approx Rs 20 crores per acre
land although few kms away, CIDCO has auctioned plots (residential
which command higher rates) for as high as even 90 crores per acre.

Even if SIL land is valued @ 18 crore per acre, land value works out
to Rs 1130 crores. On equity of 32.17 crores, it works out to Rs 176
per share. However, due to tight liquidity in real estate sector,
these days, builders prefer to go for JV with land owners (instead of
lump sum payment to buy the land)

SIL is likely to sign very soon JV agreement for development of its 63
acre land for construction of IT Park as per following terms:

1.  SIL to get Rs 250 crore cash payment. THIS WORKS OUT TO Rs 39 PER SHARE

2.  To GET 6 LAC SQ FT SPACE IN PROPOSED IT PARK. Market value of 6
lac sq feet should be around 540 crores. THIS WORKS OUT TO Rs 84 PER
SHARE.

Thus, TOTAL CONSIDERATION OF THIS JV DEAL FOR SIL works out to roughly
 Rs 120+ per share

52 week high of SIL is Rs 31 and cmp is still lower than 52 week high price.

We feel that share price of SIL can go upto Rs 28-30 by March end  and
can be Rs 60-75 in 9-15 months. Buying strongly recommended

SANKHYA INFOTECH LTD: IT Co with likely play of Defense and Aerospace
TP Rs 45 in 2 months,Rs 150 in 30 months
Hyderabad based Sankhya Infotech Ltd, may witness HUGE UPSURGE in its business in coming years due to strong emphasis of Modi govt on Make In India, domestic production of Defense equipment and growing clout of Aerospace.
Its solutions are used by many Aviation schools and Aerospace companies.

SIL offers several innovative products and services for Aerospace and Defense industry. SIL is catering to following segments:

DEFENSE
AEROSPACE
BFSI
TRANSPORT
ENERGY
HIGHER EDUCATION

SIL is world's FIRST company which offered remote training facility for any airlines in the world.

SIL has partnered with various Defense PSUs and Defense Labs . And its solutions of advanced training programs suitable for ALL 3 arms of defense forces i.e. Army, Airforce and Navy.

BIG DEVELOPMENT:  One American defense Contractor has tied up with SIL to integrate SIL's solutions with their own solutions.

For Aeropace industry, SIL offers following solutions:
TMIS
LMS
LCMS
Crew Rostering
Desktop Simulations
For Defense industry, SIL offers the following:
TMIS Defense
LMS
Simulators
Video integration

SIL's other portals of BFSI, Higher education are also doing well. However, SIL expects HUGE HUGE growth in its size from Aerospace and Defense segment.

FINANCIALS:

           9m/FY16  FY15

Income   115.      182    

PAT          3.96.   4.14                          

Equity               11.24

EPS Rs     3.52.   3.68                          

BOOK VALUE Rs  65

For FY15, SIL had earned PBT of Rs 5.27 crores. PAT Rs 4.24 crores( excluding deferred tax and prior year provision)

           FY16E. FY17E

Income. 175.  240

PAT.       6.20  10.15

EPS.       5.50.   9.00

RATIONALE FOR RECOMMENDATION:
1) SIL is trading at 5xFY16Eeps
2)Stock is available at 3xFY17Eeps

3) Current market cap is Rs 32 crores which is 0.18xRevenue. For a software co, such valuations are really low

4)Book Value is Rs 65. Stock is trading at 0.43xBValue

5). Finally, SIL will be one of beneficiaries from govt's thrust on MAKE IN INDIA for Defense and Aerospace.

If investors have patience to hold SIL for 2-3years, stock should provide REAL MULTIBAGGER wealth enhancement. TP 150 in 30 months

The Janet-factor has reinforced liquidity back to the market once again as seen from strong buying by FII in the past couple of days. The Nifty is temporarily facing resistance at ~ 7760 (25,500 for BSE) and can be facing exhaustion at higher levels. Strong buying from FII is getting neutralized by heavy selling from DII's (looks mainly from LIC to invest in/bailout cash-strapped PSB's). The short term trend based on 50-day EMA is placed

firmly up, but the Nifty can move do wn to take support at 7,600 (100-day EMA) before it scales up to 7800. At the moment, the up-trend is in place as long as the Nifty trades above 7,500 (25,000 for BSE). It is a "buy on

dip" type of market now and the leadership has once again shifted to FII who are fuelling the market funded by cheap money from abroad. RBI policy move on April 5 & Q4FY16 results are likely to be the focus area for the market in April 2016.

G R CHARI