ONGC ( 190) - STILL A BUY
*Extremely Bullish Above 194: TP 210 coming soon*
Now,Closed Abv 200 Dma.
Stoploss 183 On Cl Basis.
*Target 199--212-229
Denofwealth Technicals
Tuesday 31 October 2017
*33000 CR SURGE IN LOAN BOOK*
POWER FINANCE CORPN
As per Denofwealth reliable estimates, Loan Book of PFC as on 30th September 2017 stands at *whopping 2.19 lac Crores Vs 1.86 lac Cr YoY*
Further, _PFC can raise 1 billion dollars via Masala Bonds (3.75-4% coupon rate)_. Roadshow for same can begin very soon. Will help PFC to raise NIM
This Navratan PSU most Undervalued
Monday 30 October 2017
*85000 Ton Paper+216Key Hotel*
_MAGNUM VENTURES LTD_: Likely MULTIBAGGER
Q1FY18
Sales. 65
Depreciation 3.53
NP. 0.24
Equity. 37.60
Paper division contributed 54 Cr to Sales
MVL doesn't have good track record. However stock is worth buying at cmp as Post GST, promoters will be forced to be investor friendly:
1) MVL has 216 key hotel on outskirts of Delhi known as COUNTRY INN. In hotel industry, it was not uncommon to take CASH payment for banquet functions. It was double whammy for hotel bottom line as F&B purchase in co a/c but revenue nil. Now, it has become nearly impossible. Hence, hotel division of MVL should stop incurring losses
2) Paper Division: Paper industry too had significant cash sales. Now paper division 85000 tonnes of MVL can have hugely improved margins
3) Paper plant has 10acres land, of which only 5acres is occupied. On outskirts of Delhi
4) Finally, *once transfer of debt to ARC and 50% haircut* is formally announced by co, stock will stand RERATED
Current mktcap is half of 2017 high and tiny by any yardstick. This microcap has favourable Risk-to-Reward ratio.
We will not be surprised if MVL quotes in 3 digits in 2019(Investors may be reminded that we had advised buy on Star Paper at Rs 7 in 2014)
BIGGEST ASSET UPGRADE IN NBFC INDUSTRY
*47% NPAs become Standard*
_POWER FINANCE CORP_
~I am happy to inform you that out of 23309 crore NPAs about 11000 crore have already got upgrade w.e.f. 15th July~
Above is excerpt from speech of Chairman at recent AGM
With 47% NPA assets becoming standard in Q2, Asset quality of PFC has made huge improvement.
_Gnpa Nnpa in Q2 no's should be substantially lower and Analysts would upgrade PFC_
PFC is an excellent buy and most Undervalued NBFC as it is still much below its 2017 high of 170
Saturday 28 October 2017
BREAKING NEWS
*Q2 ONGC*
As per DOW TIMES estimates, ONGC can deliver outstanding no's:
1) Q2 PAT can *spurt 20% YoY* as PAT can be 5100+ Crores Vs 4232 Crores
2) *QoQ jump can be 30%* as PAT for Q1 was 3884 Cr Vs DOW TIMES estimate of 5100+ Cr for Q2
In view of firm outlook for crude prices, mgtmnt commentary should be positive
TP 200+ in near term
Friday 27 October 2017
Thursday 26 October 2017
Electrosteel Steels Ltd:Update
BSE had sought clarification from Insolvency Resolution Professional if SREI in talks/ negotiation to acquire ESL. ESL has replied to BSE that bids have been invited and EOI have been received from various applicants.
Naturally ESL at this stage can't reveal name of potential bidders. But investors mistook at denial and selling pressure
Our source fairly confident that Dalmia Bharat promoter is frontrunner to acquire ESL
*BUY MORE*
*Jindal Group Co: Mktcap 47cr*
_CHEAPEST METAL STOCK_
*HISAR METAL IND LTD*
Promoted by Jindal Family/Jindal Metal, Hisar Metal produces High Precision, Ultra Thin Stainless Steel Strips. Co has its own power plant for captive use and regular supply
*In last 3 months, prices of Stainless Steel strips have spurted 25%*. Hence the recommendation as co can report much higher profits in future.
Financial Performance:
Q1FY18 Q1FY17
Sales. 53. 42
PBT. 1.49. 0.70
PAT. 1.05. 0.42
Equity. 5.40. 3.60
Hisar Metal had issued 1:2 Bonus shares last year
_Q1 NP has already spurted by 150%_
FY18E. FY19E
Sales. 225. 240
PAT. 5.50. 6.50
EPS. 10. 12
1) Jindal Family co trading at 8.7xFY18EEPS and 7xFY19EEPS
2) Mktcap 0.25xSales
3) Ultra Thin SS strips is High Technology High Precision business
4) METAL INDUSTRY DOING WELL
5) Promoter equity free from encumbrances
6) Dividend paying and Bonus last year
Majority of investors not even aware of this listed entity, hence such low valuation
Hisar Metal is definitely Undervalued.
STOCK PRICE CAN DOUBLE IN 15 MONTHS
Wednesday 25 October 2017
*Dhanlaxmi bank* vs CSB
*WHEN PSB WITH HUGE LOSSES AND ABSURD NPA QUOTING SO HIGH, DHANLAXMI WITH IMPROVING FINANCIALS IS CHEAPEST BANKING STOCK*
Recently there is news that Catholic Syrian Bank ( not listed) may be acquired by a foreign co @ 180-200 per share.
FY17 Financials in terms of NPA and NP of CSB are lower/weaker compared to Dhanlaxmi bank.
Using this yardstick of Valuations, DBL going dirt cheap and _can definitely be in 3 digits in 2018-end_
DBL Nnpa already down to 2.58%. We estimate that *Nnpa for FY18 may be as low as 1.50%*
DBL AMONGST OUR TOP PICKS. Q2 NOs *(Q2 NP can be 20cr)* WILL RERATE DBL
Tuesday 24 October 2017
Update: Electrosteel Steels Ltd
Stock is Rs 10 FV ( whereas stock like Bhushan Steel is Rs 2 FV)
Dalmia Bharat is amongst most profitable/efficient group. If Dalmia Bharat promoter succeeds in getting ESL, bright chances of co turning around. *Under new leadership of Dalmia Bharat promoter, ESL can be 4x in 15-18 months*
ESL plant is most modern and needs funds to operate at optimum capacity
*Credit Suisse on Indiabulls Housing Finance*
• *Maintain Outperform; Hiked price target to Rs 1,600 from Rs 1,400*
• Q2 results: Industry leading growth continues
• Indiabulls’ continues to offer value in light of strong growth in safe asset class segment
*Citi on Havells India*
• *Maintain price target of Rs 575*
• Havells' core and Lloyd Consumer's growth were sluggish despite positive benefits of GST restocking and festive season
• Havells remains a quality business but demand environment remains sluggish and competitive intensity remains high
• Expect EPS to grow at CAGR of 20 percent over FY17-19
Monday 23 October 2017
DoW Vs Street estimate
*Q2 Havells today*
Havells can report big beat . DOW TIMES estimates Q2 PAT to be *177cr Vs CNBC est of 143 Vs 121 Cr QoQ Vs 145cr YoY*
Fundamentally, stock poised to cross 600
TECHNICAL VIEW:
*Havells India* - Looks Good For A Target Of 575--578.
Once Breaks Tgt Extends Upto 610--630.
Stoploss 541 On Closing Basis.
Thursday 19 October 2017
*To be 2x:Electrosteel Steels Ltd*
As per our sources, *PROMOTER OF DALMIA BHARAT LTD ( CMP 2700, FV 2) MAY WREST CONTROLLING STAKE IN ESL AT NCLT HEARING*
Although existing promoter likely to retain his stake and Edelweiss may do funding of 1100cr for revival
_Minimum 2x because mgtmnt change can't be at discount. MINIMUM AT PAR_
Capacity 2.5 million tonnes with Ore mines
Good P/V action seen in Electrosteel Steel. The stock is giving early signs of an impending up-breakout. Can't rule out the stock going to double figures in the short term. Use corrections to load-up on the stock in your portfolio.
By Sh G R Chari
DOW TIMES: As per our reliable source, promoter of South based Cement/Sugar giant frontrunner to acquire mgtmnt control at NCLT@11-12.
*ESL can be in Double digits in few weeks*
Wednesday 18 October 2017
Tuesday 17 October 2017
Electrosteel Steels Ltd:
Capacity 2.5 million tonnes with Ore mines
Good P/V action seen in Electrosteel Steel. The stock is giving early signs of an impending up-breakout. Can't rule out the stock going to double figures in the short term. Use corrections to load-up on the stock in your portfolio.
By Sh G R Chari
DOW TIMES: As per our reliable source, promoter of South based Cement/Sugar giant frontrunner to acquire mgtmnt control at NCLT@11-12.
*ESL can be in Double digits in few weeks*
Monday 16 October 2017
CLARIS LIFE:TP 375-380
Current market cap of the company is 2000 crores and they received 4250 crores from Baxter for sale of the injectibles business. After considering tax payment, transaction cost and other expenses, Claris has 2077 Cr CASH. It works out to Rs 381 per share.
*Now, promoter will delist Claris which means entire qty offered will be accepted*
They will announce delisting in next 1-2 weeks. No dividend due to taxation issue. BUY as 8% UPSIDE looks assured
*Highlights of G Vijay Kumar, CFO of Kaveri Seeds in an interview with ET Now*
1) Expect non-cotton biz to be 50% to 60% of total business in 3-5 years
2) Price corrections will not have much impact as the company is gaining in many markets and diversifying into non-cotton crops.
3) *Second quarter also looks better than compared to last year at 10% to 15%,* we will be better in *top line and at 20% to 25%*, better in bottom line in the second quarter for the current year as well.
4) Price correction will not be much impact because *we are gaining in many markets and also we are good in many other crops*. Overall acreage will be there and we will compensate with maize sales or paddy sales or other sales.
5) Three to four years down the line, we want to see that *non-cotton business making for more than 50% to 60%*. That way we would have penetrated the entire pan-India market. In the past, we have been south centric in some parts of Maharashtra. Now, *we have a pan-Indian presence. We are in West Bengal, UP, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Oddisha, Bihar among others*.
6) This year we have seen lot of growth in paddy while maize almost stagnated in first quarter but in July-August, it has picked up. Hopefully, during rabi crop, maize will go up. Overall, we are seeing that field crops, non-cotton crops will grow 20% to 25% for us.
7) Last year only, *we entered into the vegetable seeds and we done a modest business. This year we are expecting almost 200% growth in the vegetable seed segment. We have almost 50 products yet to launch in next couple of years including this year, next two years.*
8) We want to grow next three to four years. There is more focus on vegetable seed segment. The Indian vegetable market seed market is also growing very fast 20% year on year. We want to capture that market share and look for a good growth in the vegetable seed market.
9) For FY18, the expected revenue from the non-cotton category is around 40 plus at a margin of 5% to 6,% better than the cotton category.
10) *We are releasing every season three to four hybrids in non-cotton to meet state requirements, area requirements. In last two years, we have launched many crops and again many hybrids and this year also we are already in the kharif season, we will launch three hybrids in maize, paddy and again in rabi season. That way, we want to capture more market non-cotton areas and we want to grow fast.*
Q2 DOW TIMES:
1) Bajaj Finance: DOW TIMES estimates that co can report PAT of 570-656 Cr Vs Bloomberg estimate of 590crores
2) Bajaj Finserve: DOW TIMES estimates that Q2 PAT can be 650-660 Cr Vs Bloomberg estimate of 700 Cr
3) IndiaBull Housing Finance: DOW TIMES estimates that co can report PBT of 1120 Cr Vs Bloomberg estimate of 1085 Cr
We are NEUTRAL on all 3 stocks
Friday 13 October 2017
.Important Update:Out of S Group
PANCHMAHAL STEEL LTD: Since 2 months, PSL was in S group which deterred investors from buying this stock. Now, stock is out of S group and investors can rush to buy as PSL has MULTIBAGGER potential
PSL has *SURPLUS* land. _Conservative market value of same is estimated to be TWICE of co's mktcap_
Presently plant operating at *just 30% capacity*. With higher demand post GST, PSL targeting to enhance it's sales by 50% next year, PSL can report EPS of 12.
Recently got ISO18001 which will enable exports to Europe
*Most undervalued specialty steel stock TP 150* in 2018
We expect *big corporate action* in 2018. As and when it happens, then PSL will be strongly rerated, will come on radar of brokerage houses and CAN BE 300+ in 2-3 years from now
Wednesday 11 October 2017
*Breaking News: As per source, MCQUAIRIE has signed definitive agreement with SSPDL promoter to acquire 51% stake. Announcement expected next week*
SSPDL (530821): To be rerated.
Near term TP 120-125
TP in 1 year: Rs 150
Chennai based SSPDL Ltd is engaged in Real Estate development.
Equity 12.93cr
Revenue 115cr
PAT. 16.20cr
*EPS Rs 12.53*
Stock is trading@ 8xFY17EPS
*BREAKING NEWS: GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES CO MCQUAIRIE FOR ITS REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO IS ACQUIRING 51% STAKE OF SSPDL PROMOTER @ 130/SHARE* Announcement in this regard is expected as soon as in next 1-2 weeks. As per source, definitive agreement already signed
SSPDL is Debt free but promoter exiting as hit by slowdown, don't have own funds to implement projects on hand
1) The Retreat Kerala: Has 300 acres land in Idduki District for Villa and Jungle Resort development. Value of this alone is more than its mktcap
2) SSPDL NorthWoods: 42 acre project
3) 8.11 acre in Kancheepuram District: In JV as Developer, had potential of 1.2 million sq ft
4) Lakewood OMR: JV with Godrej 12.55 lac SF
5) 317 Cr worth project in Hyderabad to develop 1155 homes for BHEL employees on 90acres
6) Had made 4.77 lac SF Alpha City IT Park. Receivables 20.66cr
Macquarie will be able to infuse enough funds to kick-start above projects with particular eye on 300acre land in Kerala
With new FOREIGN promoters in control, fortunes of SSPDL will be much brighter
Stock can be 150 in less than 1 year
Tuesday 10 October 2017
Q1EPS 18.73: MOST UNDERVALUED SUGAR STOCK
_Combo of Sugar, TyreCord, Fine Chemicals, API_
DCM SHRIRAM *IND* LTD: TP 700
BseCode 523369 (10FV)
Rationale for Recommendation:
1. Diversified Product range
2. Highly profitable Boom in All divisions
3. *FY17 EPS 70*
4. *FY18EEPS 77*
DSIL is diversified conglomerate engaged in production of SUGAR, TYRECORD, API, FINE CHEMICALS
A. _Daurala Sugar_ : One of the oldest sugar Mills and well-known name in U.P., sugar factory produces Premium Packages Sugar, Sugar Cubes, Sugar Sachets and Pharma grade Sugar. Also has 45000 KL distillery to produce Liquor, ENA
B. _Shriram Rayon's_ : Again one of the oldest and most well known name in Tyre industry, produces Rayon Tyre Yarn/Cord/Fabrics and Nylon yarn
C. _Daurala Organics_: This division produces Organic/Inorganic Chemicals and Drug Intermediates
FY17. FY16
Sales. 1506. 1216
PBT. 152 40
PAT. 122 34
Equity. 17.40
EPS Rs *70.19. 19.60*
DSIL reported exceptionally good nos forFY17 with NP of 122cr vs 34cr. Such performance was possible not only due to boom in sugar prices but TYRECORD division too performed much better due to robust demand from tyre industry and improved performance of Chemicals. In fact, *tyre cord industry has become seller mkt with strong pricing power*
_Finance cost is just 2% of Sales which should come down further with increased earnings_
FY18E
Sales. 1550
NP. 134
EPSRs. 77.
DSIL is available at extremely attractive Valuations:
1) *Tdg @ 4.40xFY17eps*
2) *Avlbl @ 4.10xFY18Eeps*
3) BValue Rs 210
Even if DSIL gets modest PERATIO of 9, stock should be 700
( *We repeat Bse code no is 523369*)
Dhanlaxmi Bank Ltd:
Conclusions from Joindre Capital report:
1) DBL financials are improving significantly. FY17 PAT 12.38 Cr Vs FY16 loss of 209 Cr
*FY18E NP 70-80cr*
2)There are only 2-3 account remaining which may show slippage
3)On the other hand, several account are on recovery 4) Hence net net DBL asset quality to improve from here
5)By raising further capital up to 150 crores through NCD will see further improvement in CAR without equity dilution
6)DBL to have more capital available for further expansion
7)DBL loan book growing in retail segment that too against monetization
8) Recent tie up with some insurance provider will lift top line
9)ROI going forward to improve significantly
10) *Strong take over candidate going forward* Hence strong buy for target of 100 in one year time frame
Will not be surprised too see hitting UC in coming days
Monday 9 October 2017
Important Update:
PANCHMAHAL STEEL LTD
PSL has *SURPLUS* land. _Conservative market value of same is estimated to be TWICE of co's mktcap_
Presently plant operating at just 30% capacity. With higher demand post GST, PSL targeting to enhance it's sales by 50% next year, PSL can report EPS of 12.
Recently got ISO18001 which will enable exports to Europe
*Most undervalued specialty steel stock TP 150*
We expect big corporate action in 2018. As and when it happens, then PSL will be strongly rerated, will come on radar of brokerage houses and CAN BE 300+ in 2-3 years from now
*MKTCAP=1YEAR EBIDTA*
_Cheapest Paper Stock_
SHREE RAJESHWARANAND PAPER MILLS (516086)
*SRPML had EBIDTA of 18.71cr for FY17 and current mktcap is 18.76cr*. Rarely investors will get profit making co at 1 year Ebidta mktcap. STOCK IS ALSO TRADING ONLY @ 15% OF ITS ANNUAL SALES
Gujarat based SRPML us engaged in production of Newsprint with installed capacity of 47000 tons. Last year, co also diversified into manufacturing of Abrasive Tools.
FY17 Rs/Cr
Sales. 125.40
EBIDTA. 18.71
Interest 9.02
Depreciation. 6.72
PBT. 2.97
PAT. 1.93
Equity. 12.45
*CashProfit. 8.65*
EPSRs. 1.55
*CashEPS. 6.95*
FY17 witnessed sharp improvement in its financials with PAT of 1.93cr Vs 60 Lacs YoY. During the year, Abrasive accounted for 13.60% of total sales. Co had been expanding paper capacity through internal accruals/Borrowings. In 4 years, it's topline had nearly doubled to 125 Cr from 65cr (consequently Finance cost rose from 3.54cr to 9cr). Benefits of such capex will be felt in coming years
Current Performance:
SRPML for Q1 has reported Sales of 25.80cr and NP of 50 Lacs *Vs loss of 32lacs YoY*
For FY18, SRPML can report Sales of 135 Cr and NP of 3.50-4cr with CASH PROFIT OF 10CR
Co is planning capex on balancing equipments to further increase production capacity and writing paper production
Stock is Undervalued as Tdg at 1xEBIDTA. With FY18EEPS of 3 and CASHEPS of 8.50, SRPML share price can DOUBLE in 1 year. If held for LONG term, stock price can be in 3 digits as in due course Abrasive division will also turn profitable
BUYING STRONGLY RECOMMENDED
Friday 6 October 2017
https://youtu.be/M65MLMgL_wU
*Extreme Confidence*
PANCHMAHAL STEEL LTD
Promoter has increased his stake to 72.62% vs 70.79% QoQ
Many times promoters increase their stake when their stake is on lower side, say 40-50%.
However PSL promoter already held 70.79% and still buying another 2% from open market means that PSL HAS GREAT FUTURE
PSL don't make commodity steel. PSL makes only Technical/Special steel rods/wires used in EPC/ Engineering/Machinery/Power plants
Moreover, _floating stock slowly drying up as 2 institutions holding 17.70 lac shares have completely exited_
With mktcap of just 110cr, PSL is TOP PICK
*Some real big corporate action expected in Q2CY18 which can take its shares price to 150*
Tuesday 3 October 2017
SSPDL (530821): To be rerated.
Near term TP 120-125
TP in 1 year: Rs 150
Chennai based SSPDL Ltd is engaged in Real Estate development.
Equity 12.93cr
Revenue 115cr
PAT. 16.20cr
*EPS Rs 12.53*
Stock is trading@ 8xFY17EPS
*BREAKING NEWS: GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES CO MCQUAIRIE FOR ITS REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO IS ACQUIRING 51% STAKE OF SSPDL PROMOTER @ 130/SHARE* Announcement in this regard is expected as soon as in next 1-2 weeks. As per source, definitive agreement already signed
SSPDL is Debt free but promoter exiting as hit by slowdown, don't have own funds to implement projects on hand
1) The Retreat Kerala: Has 300 acres land in Idduki District for Villa and Jungle Resort development. Value of this alone is more than its mktcap
2) SSPDL NorthWoods: 42 acre project
3) 8.11 acre in Kancheepuram District: In JV as Developer, had potential of 1.2 million sq ft
4) Lakewood OMR: JV with Godrej 12.55 lac SF
5) 317 Cr worth project in Hyderabad to develop 1155 homes for BHEL employees on 90acres
6) Had made 4.77 lac SF Alpha City IT Park. Receivables 20.66cr
Macquarie will be able to infuse enough funds to kick-start above projects with particular eye on 300acre land in Kerala
With new FOREIGN promoters in control, fortunes of SSPDL will be much brighter
Stock can be 150 in less than 1 year
Monday 2 October 2017
BEWARE OF FAKES/CHEATERS
We wish to inform our followers that DenOfWealth popularly known as DoW is available free of cost on our Telegram channel and 400 WhatsApp groups.
However one cheap newspaper from Ahmedabad in English/Gujarati is collecting Rs 5000 from investors by copying/imitating our brand DoW. Shame on such fakes who trying to make quick bucks by misleading investors
Hence please be informed that DenOfWealth has nothing to do whatsoever with this cheater and our followers are advised not to fall in trap of that newspaper :
Smartinvestment doing SMART job of a con
ORIGINAL DOW ONLY AT TELEGRAM/WHATSAPP/BLOG
Jaypee Infratech: Update
When we FIRST recommended JIL, it had more than doubled to Rs 25. However subsequently stock fell by nearly 50% due to exceptionally high and biased media coverage and statements of some politicians which does not stand test of IBC provisions.
We reiterate that JIL has huge landbank of 6000 acres and promoter is willing to settle entire debt in exchange of part of land parcels. Thereafter once promoter raises some funds, same will be used to complete construction of residential projects
Value of its hospital alone is more than current mktcap
We advise investors to have confidence in co's future and not to book loss.
STOCK WILL BE MULTIBAGGER TO THOSE WHO HAVE PATIENCE OF 2 YEARS
TFCI: Disinvestment Update
Finally IFCI has sold its 24% stake @ 150.10. The way deal is done, raises lot of questions and lacks transparency
Red Kite has picked 13% stake. As per our investigation, Red Kite has picked this stake on behalf of an FII and in coming time, Red Kite 13% to be transferred to FII. Centrum has also taken small exposure
Open offer may be 2-3 months away. Stock price has come down as traders have exited
However once new team/investors take control of TFCI, co will grow rapidly and stock price can double in 15 months
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