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Tuesday 15 November 2016

It is a truism that misfortunes never come singly & it is no exception for the market. The TRUMPism in the USA,  the demonetisation of Modi & the imbroglio in the Tata House have all converged to change the sentiments & direction of the market. This correction is also a knock on the head to naive investors who think that the market is a one way street. So, what's in store for the market for the balance part of the year? For one, the market, at the fag end of the year has started giving both time-wise & price-wise correction and the short term momentum indicators have started trending down decisively. As indicated by me on 4/11, the major near term support for the market @ 8,000 has already been tested on 9/11 and it is very important that this level is not vitiated in the days to come. Mind you that, after yesterday's correction, we are once again close to the 8,000 level in the Nifty. The Nifty after touching 8,002 has rallied to the level of 8,550-8600 indicated by me & reversed ferociously from those levels. This is an advance warning that the state of the market is very brittle & even a small bad news can aggravate the fall. At the moment, the market has entered over-sold territory & a sharp rally cannot be ruled out. As the market cracked from the previous support level at 8,500, the pull back rally, when it happens, can retest that level. In short, I expect the market to trade in 8,000-8500 levels in the next 2-3 weeks as the market will wait for further cues from the FED & RBI on the interest rates. The spike in the Bond Market in the U.S. is a clear indication that the rate hike is a given thing. But our market can fall ahead of the forthcoming event and in case the 8,000 level is breached on the downside, I expect another falling knife which can take the Nifty all the way down to 7,500. This will be 3/4th correction of the rally from March to September 2016. This is the broader trend of the market and trends cannot be broken or reversed easily. Some stocks may try to defy the fall and don't be lured to buying them as they will later fall in line with the broader market correction. I expect the market may face more headwinds till the presentation of the Budget likely on Feb. 1, 2017 and the prudent thing to do will be to keep your nerves under control, stop playing the guessing game, use the rallies to exit stocks and stay in cash till some sign of bottoming is visible in the charts. Caution & Cash should be at your side at this critical moment. You are welcome to check with me before taking an investment decision and, may be, with God's benign grace, He will give me the power to give you the right advice.
"Risk is good, but not properly managing your risk is a dangerous leap". -- Evel Knievelwisdom.
The above is a toast for your
 financial health.

Valued Contribution by Sh GRChari

My take: Amongst 1000s of articles subsequent to demonetization, perhaps the most rational balanced analysis

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