Another Downgrade:

Coal India Ltd

Macquarie TP Rs 252

Macquarie has rated CIL as _underperform TP 252_

However denofwealth estimates CIL may fall to Rs 225 in less than 6 months.

1. All global brokerage houses have estimated FY17 Dividend to be Rs 18-20 per share and giving TP factoring High Dividend Yield. However we feel that such high Dividend will not happen as recently 3500 Cr drained out by buyback ( co had to break FD) in Oct16

2. Current year EPS to be considerably LOWER. All brokerage houses estimating FY17 eps between Rs 18-21 per share which is completely unrealistic . Looking at H1 NP, CIL can report such high Eps _only if H2 Eps is Rs 13-16 and it is impossible because CIL did not report such high Half yearly Eps when Coal prices were LIFETIME high_

For higher gains, we advise to roll over position to Jan17 series. Stock should make new 52 week low in Jan17