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Wednesday 31 May 2017

FAR FROM REALITY:Part1

PFC Concall

In it's concall, PFC has tried it's best to mislead investing community by hiding Negatives, making broad vague statements and being ridiculously optimistic:

Firstly, has any company ever said that NPAs are not recoverable. Every co always comments and remains optimistic for NPA recovery.

Secondly coming to PFC:

Mgtmnt says "80% of NPAs will reverse NEXT YEAR"
Investors getting impression that next year means 2017-18.
We wish to clarify that *NEXT YEAR means 2018-19* Even otherwise, such statement MOST BOLD n Unrealistic statement trying to please analysts.

Shree Maheshwar Hydel  had become NPA where PFC has exposure of 700 crores. It never became Standard. Rather PFC was forced to convert part of loan in Equity and ultimately has taken over the project itself WHICH IS INCOMPLETE WITHOUT ANY BUYERS

As per RBI guidelines *RESTRUCTURED LOANS CANNOT BE UPGRADED AS STANDARD ASSETS FOR ONE YEAR UNTIL ACCOUNT HAS PERFORMED SATISFACTORILY N TERMS OF LOAN COMPLIED WITH*

SO IT IS NOT POSSIBLE THAT RECENTLY RESTRUCTURED LOANS WILL QUALIFY AS STANDARD ASSETS IN CURRENT YEAR

_Rather PFC will have to increase provisioning on restructured assets as time goes by.  On 5784 cr, provisioning has already been increased to 10% from 4.25%_ *On 35995cr provisioning increased from 0.35% to 4.25%. Is there not the possibility that in current year provisioning on 35995cr is increased to 10%*

Wait 30 minutes for Part2

Stock should come down once reality dawns on investing community

We assure of never-before nowhere-else facts and info

Tuesday 30 May 2017

Danger Ahead: PFC

Gross NPA.      30718cr

Restructured.   55439 cr

TOTAL.               86157cr

*It works out 35% of loan book*

With falling power tariffs, power companies feeling further stress and finding increasingly difficult to service their loans

BIG PORTION OF RESTRUCTURED LOANS ARE POTENTIAL NPAs OF FUTURE

_Most brokerage houses will downgrade the stock ( today evening) which will accelerate institutional selling_

We remain bearish with TP 100-110

Update TFCI Q4:

Co has reported PAT of 17.20cr which is lower than Denofwealth estimate. However in Q4 co has made extra provision of 4.65 cr for salary ( this figure for full year, quarterly impact would have been 1.15cr. Co expecting approval for salary increment, hence provision already made)
FY17 eps is 8.73

*Main point is that Nnpa stand reduced to 2.5% and WE EXPECT NPA TO BE JUST 0.5% ON Q1FY18*

_Disinvestment process to kick off in 2 weeks'_

Can expect big jump in share price once disinvestment announcement is made

Shocking Performance

PFC: Worst Asset Quality

1) Gnpa 30718 cr vs 7520 cr  *13% vs 3.03%*

2) _Net NPA 11%_

3)SLIPPAGES during year *whopping 23000 cr which 10% of Loan book*

4) PROVISION COVERAGE RATIO: *Only 20%*. In Finance sector, normally it is 50%

5) STANDARD RESTRUCTURED ASSETS: 55439 cr *22% of loan book*

Situation may worsen as some borrowers in Standard Restructured Assets may be down graded due to stress

a) Rating downgrade possible

b) Borrowing Cost can go up

c) Capital Adequacy under pressure

d) Focus will divert from growth to recovery of NPAs

Stock can be 100-110

Monday 29 May 2017

PowerGrid Corpn Q4

Breaking News

PGIL as per estimate of Denofwealth can report PAT of 1960-1970 cr

Breaking News

Coal India LTD A4

CIL as per estimate of Denofwealth can report PAT of 3330 cr for Q4 vs Bloomberg estimate of 3839 crores

SHORTSELL STOCK FOR JUNE

POWER FINANCE CORPN:        

PFC has reported NP of 5535 crores for 9 month ended Dec16. In the past, PFC had been restructuring default loans of power companies and treating same as Standard Assets. It resulted in PFC showing  higher income  and lower NPAs.  However revised guidelines has made it mandatory for PFC to classify Restructured Loans as NPAs

Hence PFC can report *Big LOSS for Q4* ( no one time write off) and NP for _12 months will be lower than NP of 9 months_

ASSET QUALITY TO TAKE BIG BEATING. NPAs WILL SPURT TO *DOUBLE DIGIT* AGAINST EXISTING 3%.

*300% rise in NPAs*

Q4 nos will raise issue of corporate governance

Stock looks slated for Downgrade by all brokerage houses due worsening asset Quality.

TP. 120-122 June Expiry

BIG BREAKING NEWS:Q4 nos today

TOURISM FINANCE CORPN (TFCI)

TFCI set to report HIGHEST ever quarterly NP. *Q4 NP can be 23cr vs 3.25cr YoY, whopping 700%rise* More important, sharp improvement in Asset Quality as Nnpa may *nosedive to 2.5%*

TFCI is only NBFC engaged in finance exclusively for Hotel, Restaurant, entertainment, Tourism industry in India

IFCI promoter co holds 27% stake

*IFCI has decided to divest it's Entire 26% stake thru eAuction*

TFCI is cheapest NBFC considering the following:

C.A.R.                 37.82%

Book Value.     Rs 75

Equity               80.71cr

FY17EPAT.       77cr (conservative estimate)

Dividend.record.  18-20%

Borrowing Cost   8%

Yield.         13.83%

NIM.          5.83%

*Establishment Cost 3.5% of Gross Revenue*

_Only 30 empkoyees_ 6.70 cr salary bill on Revenue of 185cr

As per accepted norms, NBFC valuation (conservative) is *2xBook or 12xEPS*

TFCI valuations come:

BOOK VALUE (75)X2=Rs 150

EPS (10)x12= Rs 120

*Average of both= Rs 135*

_Big Financial Services companies like Edelweiss, Financial arm of Sun Pharma promoter, Spore based FII, IIFL , IBull group in fray for bidding_

Announcement from IFCI already made

eAuction will materialize in June 2017

eAuction will fetch MINIMUM Rs 140 bid for TFCI and  25 year old co which will rerated with private sector entrepreneur as promoter

Stock can be 250 in 18 months

Cheapest NBFC. Stock can be 120-125 in this week itself after Q4 nos are announced today

Buy NOW

*Q4NP spurts 38% YoY*  

NBCC (India) Ltd

Co has reported HUGE spurt of 39% in Q4 NP at 174 cr vs 125cr. And this figure _after one-off of Rs 16 cr being income tax of earlier years_

Net Sales  Rs. 2351.8 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 1413.8 Cr, YoY Rs. 2241  Cr

EBIDTA came at Rs. 211.9 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 77.3 Cr, YoY Rs. 153 Cr

EBITDA Margin *9%, QoQ 5.5%, YoY 6.8%*
N
MONETISATION OF LAND OF AIRPORT AUTHORITY WILL BE BIG BIG TRIGGER

WITH IMPROVEMENT ON ALL PARAMETERS, NBCC SET TO *TOUCH 220 IN JUNE EXPIRY*

Sunday 28 May 2017

Fellow Members
In Monday noon, we shall provide 2 ideas out of which 1 Derivative for SHORT and 1 buy in cash segment
Cash stock will rise 20-30% in 2-3 weeks'
SHORT Derivative can give you *HIGHEST* return of your derivative career.
Hence advise to keep bank balance ready and even sell other Holding to create more liquidity

Friday 26 May 2017

Denofwealth News

Q4  NBCC Result today:

DoW estimates that NBCC is set to report HIGHEST ever quarterly NP.

Q4 NP can *spurt 22% to 169 cr vs 138 cr YoY*

Q4 NP at 169 cr to _higher than Bloomberg estimate as well_

Stock should rise. Can be 208-220 next week

CIPLA: _Downgrades by all major brokerage_

1) CLSA downgraded from Outperform to UNDERPERFORM. Cuts TP by 20%

2) MS downgraded from Outperform to UNDERPERFORM. Cuts TP by 25% to 485

Q4 Cons *Loss*at Rs 61.8 cr vs poll ( PAT)of Rs 347cr.

EBITDA At Rs 506.2 Cr Vs Poll Of Rs 675.4 Cr (Negative numbers for stock prices)

Breaking News

Q4 Shipping Corpn of Ind

As per Denofwealth estimate, SCI may report 54-55 cr NP for Q4 vs 7 cr Loss YoY vs 7 cr NP QoQ. Full year NP should be around 100 cr. Equity 465 cr
Stock appears fully priced

Thursday 25 May 2017

Bad Q4: Cipla Ltd

Cipla today will announce nos with *miss on all fronts*

1) Sales can be 3615cr vs *CNBC estimate of 3790cr*

2) Ebidta can plunge to *524cr vs CNBC estimate of 675cr*

3) PAT may *fall to 234cr vs CNBC estimate of 347cr*

Stock should fall

Wednesday 24 May 2017

BIG HOT NEWS

TATA MOTORS LTD

Internal working going on for listing of JLR in Europe and USA. Tata Motors planning to raise *4 bn to 6 bn dollars* through partial divestment of JLR stake.

Mktcap cap of JLR alone can be more than Tata motors.

It will be *biggest ever value unlocking in India Inc*

Stock will be further rerated as post listing of JLR, Tata motors is tipped to be in 4 digits next year

BIG UPGRADES:TATA MOTORS:

Motilal Oswal.  TP 635

BOAML.              TP 600

MS.                      TP. 588

DB.                       TP. 555

Denofwealth feels that stock can *touch 500 this Friday*

_Should be 528-532June Expiry_

Tuesday 23 May 2017

BIG BREAKING NEWS

TATA MOTOR Q4: *Buy NOW*

Tata motors set to announce superb bumper nos _best ever in its history_) after mkt hours

DOW TIMES estimates big beat on all fronts/street estimate:

A) *EBIDTA CAN BE 11200+ CRORE VS BLOOMBERG EST OF 8480 CR*

B. *PAT TO SEE HUGE JUMP AT 3900-4000 CR VS BLOOMBERG EST 2576CR*

JLR EBIDTA MARGIN CAN BE 17% VS 11.5%

NO ONE-OFF GAINS, EXCEPT MINOR FOREX GAIN

BTST TP 468-472
TP 522-532 JUNE EXPIRY

Update on Balasore Alloys Ltd

Subsequent to our buy call, stock has fallen. However Investors need not book loss
Rather Investors can buy more at cmp. Prospects of current year are good and co in a position to report Eps of 13 for FY18

Promoter may be Keen to keep share price low as it will enable to allot P Offer of 3.50 cr warrants at lower price

Videocon : name changed to - Videogone .

Promoters smartly conned so many banks.

We reiterate that there are 100s of Vijay Mallayas luxuriously ensconced in their palatial homes/ offices in India

TRUTH TRIUMPHED

Rarely investors will come across with Sell report or Contrarian views. Almost everyone is member of BUY club

However Denofwealth has always stood by facts and fair biz practices. Some of our expose have invited goons to our office

Websol energy System: Promoter not investor friendly who has already short changed bankers of huge amount through OTS. However certain so-called analysts started promoting this stock circulating *fake EPS nos*. Hence Denofwealth took up the cudgels of putting facts in public domain yesterday and today stock is LC. Thanks Investors for believing in Denofwealth

2) Usha Martin Ltd Re 1 FV: when mktmen giving fancy targets, Denofwealth came out with sell report at Rs 20. Stock is already down 12% since then

Follow us for TRUTH RATIONAL EXUBERANCE

*AN OPTIMIST SEES GREEN LIGHT EVERYWHERE. PESSIMIST SEES RED LIGHT EVERYWHERE. WISEST IS COLORBLIND*

June TP achieved in May

_Indo Count Industries_

Co reported bad Q4. Still, brokerage houses gave buy report with 229 TP

However DOW TIMES didn't waiver in it's conviction and went ahead with Sell report TP 170-172 June Expiry

Great news that Stock touched 170-171 to
today​ itself

*Only dead fish swims with current. And Den of Wealth is not dead fish*

Monday 22 May 2017

*Q4 NP MORE  NP OF 9M*

Balasore Alloy Ltd

BAL is 2nd largest producer of Ferro Chrome in India. Co has its _own captive Ore mines_. Hence cost of production of Ferro Chrome per ton is largely fixed.

Balasore alloy had produced 1.22 lac tonnes in FY16.

Production in FY17 should be at least 1.35 lac tonnes

_Co is in position to produce 1.45 lac ton in FY18 as installed capacity is 1.65 lac ton_

Financials:

            9mFY17. FY17

Sales.    678.      1012

NP.         43.52.     90

Equity.    39.44.   44.4

EPS Rs.                11.35

Balasore made NP of 43.52 cr in 9 month of current year on 39.44 cr Equity. No *NP OF Q4 ALONE IS 46 CR*

In recent weeks, there is fall in Ferro Chrome prices. However, BAL should still post handsome nos for FY18:
a) BAL is lowest cost producer of Ferro Chrome with cost of Rs60000 per ton. Current mkt price despite fall are still much higher. Moreover *higher production in current year will compensate for fall in selling price*

b). One-third of contracts are booked on yearly basis. It means co will get benefit of high price in current year as well
c) one-third contracts are quarterly basis. So impact of higher price will add to profits in Q1

d) one-third contracts are booked on spot basis. So if Ferro Chrome price rise again, BAL will benefit from same

e)Finally *promoter taking P Offer of 3.50 cr shares, means will infuse nearly 225 cr in BAL Mktcap of which is 500 cr. Out of it, 1.75 cr warrants will convert in equity in 2019*

If Ferro Chrome prices are going to remain soft, then promoter wouldn't commit funds for 2 years from now at cmp and would have waited for the fall. It clearly indicates that Ferro Chrome prices will surpass recent high because steel production continues to rise whereas there are no new chrome Ore mines. BAL will use these funds for capacity additions. Co has already started work for underground mining of Ore

As per our analysis, considering orders under execution,  *Balasore can post NP of 40+ cr for Q1*.

*For FY18 Balasore can achieve NP of MINIMUM 120 cr*

_EPS for FY18 can be 13.50_. Stock is trading at just 4.82xFY18Eeps.

We expect stock can be 85 next week and 120-140  in 6-9 months

An excellent Buy

Big Trigger for TFCI:

Breaking News

In it's Board meeting held on 19th May, IFCI board has approved sale of it's Entire stake of TFCI. Thus our 2 month old Breaking News stands vindicated

*As per our reliable info, reserve price for eAuction can be 125-130*

In view of bidding expected from more than 20 entities, stake sale should finalise @150+

And successful bidder will have to launch Open Offer

As eAuction should begin in early June, TFCI share price can touch 150 in next 4-5 weeks

BEST BUY. No downward risk with assured appreciation

Blatant/Intentional misleading of Investors:

Websol Energy System Ltd

Recently co has declared Q4 results, with topline of 95.44 crores and _NP shown as 79.34 cr which has One Time write back of 74.17 cr_

Co is showing quarterly Eps of 38.26 before Exceptional ( which is blatantly wrong)
*Actual profit before Exceptional is only 8.70cr* How much EPS it will translate into on 22cr Equity?
Unfortunately, Investors/so called analyst/ writers also making fool of gullible Investors by circulating WRONG EPS of 38

ACTUAL EPS IS 4
After making fool of bankers, promoters fooling Investors

Sunday 21 May 2017

Accurate DOW TIMES

Just Dial Ltd Q4

JDL has reported revenue of 181.72cr vs *our estimate of 181cr* and NP of 25.35 cr vs our forecast *of 26cr*

Friday 19 May 2017

ABOVE & BEYOND

As always, DOW TIMES continues it's streak of accuracy.

Balasore Alloy has reported PAT of 46 CR ( our estimate 45cr) for Q4. This is despite tax provision of almost 40%.

Our adversaries had pulled down the stock to 60 level by spreading rumour of 20cr NP. Hope in future they will refrain from such nasty mischief

Breaking News

Q4 Just Dial Ltd

DOW TIMES estimates that JDL can report 181 cr Topline and 33cr PBT. PAT can be 26-26.50cr

SHORT SELL:

INDO COUNT IND LTD Q4

ICIL has reported extremely bad nos:

1. EBIDTA fell *26%* to 90 cr vs 122cr

2. EBIDTA margin *down whopping 630 bp to 17.6% vs 23.8%*

3. PAT fell *28% to 48.8% vs 68cr*

Since co derives major revenue from Exports, *strong rupee can keep margins depressed*

OPERATOR CANT KEEP SHARE PRICE AT ARTIFICIALLY HIGH LEVEL FOR LONG TIME

TP 165-168 June Expiry

SELL

*Q4 NP MORE THAN NP OF 9M*

Balasore Alloy Ltd

BAL is 2nd largest producer of Ferro Chrome in India. Co has its _own captive Ore mines_. Hence cost of production of Ferro Chrome per ton is largely fixed.

Balasore alloy had produced 1.22 lac tonnes in FY16.

Production in FY17 should be at least 1.35 lac tonnes

_Co is in position to produce 1.45 lac ton in FY18 as installed capacity is 1.65 lac ton_

Financials:

            9mFY17. FY17E

Sales.    678.      975

NP.         43.52.    88

Equity.    39.44

Balasore made NP of 43.52 cr in 9 month of current year on 39.44 cr Equity. *NP OF Q4 ALONE CAN BE MORE THAN 46 CR* (Result today)

Promoter will also take P. Offer (3rd in 2 years) which shows that prospects of Ferro Chrome industry will remain bright

*For FY18 Balasore can achieve NP of MINIMUM 150 cr*

We expect stock can be 80-85 next week and 110-120 in 4-6 months

Thursday 18 May 2017

Derivative Stock for May/June: JP Associates

*JOINT LENDER MEET TODAY FOR DEBT REVAMP*

1) Co has total 32.85 million ton cement capacity ( out of which 5.2 million ton under construction). JP had last year sold 21.2 million ton to Ultratech for 16189 cr. _After this sale, JP will have 11 million ton cement capacity_

JP has *received NCLT approval*( final compliance) for Ultratech deal. *PAYMENT FROM ULTRATECH EXPECTED ANY DAY*Thus IN NEXT 1 WEEK or so,  total debt of 37294 cr( short term, long term) will come down to 21105 cr, leading to substantial reduction in interest cost from June quarter onwards.

2) _*Value of its Current/Non-current investments ( excluding core business assets) are more than Entire debt*_

3)Further JP owns following Five Star luxury hotels (of which _2 are in prime location of Delhi_):

Jaypee Siddharth Continental Delhi 94 rooms

Jaypee Vasant Continental, Vasant Vihar Delhi 119 rooms

Jaypee Residency Manor Mussourie 135 rooms

Jaypee Palace & Convention Centre Agra 341 rooms

Jaypee Greens Golf & Spa Resorts *( 70 acres)* Noida 170 Suites

JP Associate likely to *SELL Hotel division which may fetch JP 2500-3000 cr* for further debt reduction

*JP Associates has mind boggling assets across various verticals*

JP Associate may _stop incurring loss from September 17 quarter_ onwards as Interest cost will plunge with lower depreciation

TP 16-17 May Expiry

TP Rs 21 June  Expiry

TP Rs 60 in 15 months

Wednesday 17 May 2017

DCM SHRIRAM IND( Bse code 523369) ascending triangle breakout on weekly chart T490

Cigniti Technologies Ltd

Q4 Breaking News

CTL can report big loss for Q4 and there can be loss for entire FY17. Stock can fall below 300

CMP 370. TP 750

_Combo of Sugar, TyreCord, Fine Chemicals, API_

DCM SHRIRAM *IND* LTD
BseCode 523369 (10FV)

Rationale for Recommendation:

1. Diversified Product range
2. Highly profitable Boom in All divisions
3. *9m EPS 55.36*
4. *FY17E EPS 77*
5. *FY18EEPS 84*

DSIL is diversified conglomerate engaged in production of SUGAR, TYRECORD, API, FINE CHEMICALS

A. _Daurala Sugar_ : One of the oldest sugar Mills and well-known name in U.P., sugar factory produces Premium Packages Sugar, Sugar Cubes, Sugar Sachets and Pharma grade Sugar. Also has 45000 KL distillery to produce Liquor, ENA

B. _Shriram Rayon's_ : Again one of the oldest and most well known name in Tyre industry, produces Rayon Tyre Yarn/Cord/Fabrics and Nylon yarn
C. _Daurala Organics_: This division produces Organic/Inorganic Chemicals and Drug Intermediates

          9mFY17.  FY16

Sales.   1121.    1216

PBT.        125.         38

PAT.         96.           33

Equity.    17.40

EPS Rs *55.36.  19.10*

DSIL reported exceptionally good nos for 9mFY17 with NP of 96.33cr vs 9.26cr. Such performance was possible not only due to boom in sugar prices but TYRECORD division too performed much better due to robust demand from tyre industry and improved performance of Chemicals. In fact, *tyre cord industry has become seller mkt with strong pricing power*

_Finance cost is just 2% of Sales which should come down further with increased earnings_

          FY17E. FY18E

Sales.  1400.   1550

NP.        134.     146

EPSRs.    77.      84

DSIL is available at extremely attractive Valuations:

1) *Tdg @ 4.80xFY17Eeps*

2) *Avlbl @ 4.40xFY18Eeps*

Even if DSIL gets modest PERATIO of 10, stock should be 750

( *We repeat Bse code no is  523369*)

Tuesday 16 May 2017

Set to go down: SELL

INDO COUNT IND LTD Q4

ICIL has reported extremely bad nos:

1. EBIDTA fell *26%* to 90 cr vs 122cr

2. EBIDTA margin *down whopping 630 bp to 17.6% vs 23.8%*

3. PAT fell *28% to 48.8% vs 68cr*

Since co derives major revenue from Exports, *strong rupee can keep margins depressed*

TP 165-168 June Expiry

SELL

Monday 15 May 2017

Poised for Big Leap:

KKALPANA INDUSTRIES LTD

KIL, Calcutta based , is engaged in production of high-technology *polymer compounds* for high growth user industry (Cable, Footwear, Packaging). It has vast product range:

1. PVC Compounds
2. PE Compounds
3. Filled Compounds,Master Batches
4. Color, speciality Master Batches
5. Footwear compounds
6. Pipe Compounds
7. Engineering plastics

                9mFY17. FY16

Sales       1397.   1876

NP.            25.50.  17.63

Equity.      18.81cr

Reserves.              223cr

In FY16, KIL had _one time  expense of 26.69 cr_ being loss caused by fire.

*KIL has emerged as LARGEST mfr of Polymer Compounds in India* KIL closed it's factories in Daman and Bhiwadi and set up new plant *to produce 2 lac tonnes of Polymer Compounds*

KIL HAS DOUBLED ITS TOPLINE IN JUST 4 YEARS FROM 913 CR IN 2012

*KIL CAN REPORT FABULOUS NOS FOR Q4 WITH NEARLY 300% RISE IN NP QOQ*

_KIL is one of few companies in the world having developed HV and EHV insulation Compounds

KIL has most sophisticated research centre

              FY17E.    FY18E

Sales.    1825.     2200

NP.            36.       58

*EPS.        3.83.     6.17*

On optimum capacity utilization, KIL can cross sales of 3000 cr with PAT crossing 80 crores

KIL should get insurance claim soon which will be one time addition to it's bottom line

*Further, mkt value of land of 2 closed plants can be 100-120 crores. And, at it's present site/factor, KIL can increase it's production capacity by 50%*

KIL is an excellent buy for Investors as it has not yet participated in equity mkt boom

Stock can be

75 in 6 months

150 in 18 months

250 in 3 years

:BREAKING NEWS: JP Associates

*Huge Triggers: Complete turnaround*

1) Co has total 32.85 million ton cement capacity ( out of which 5.2 million ton under construction). JP had last year sold 21.2 million ton to Ultratech for 16189 cr. _After this sale, JP will have 11 million ton cement capacity_

JP has *received NCLT approval*( final compliance) for Ultratech deal. *PAYMENT FROM ULTRATECH EXPECTED ANY DAY*Thus IN NEXT 1 WEEK or so,  total debt of 37294 cr( short term, long term) will come down to 21105 cr, leading to substantial reduction in interest cost from June quarter onwards.

2) _*Value of its Current/Non-current investments ( excluding core business assets) are more than Entire debt*_

3)Further JP owns following Five Star luxury hotels (of which _2 are in prime location of Delhi_):

Jaypee Siddharth Continental Delhi 94 rooms

Jaypee Vasant Continental, Vasant Vihar Delhi 119 rooms

Jaypee Residency Manor Mussourie 135 rooms

Jaypee Palace & Convention Centre Agra 341 rooms

Jaypee Greens Golf & Spa Resorts *( 70 acres)* Noida 170 Suites

JP Associate likely to *SELL Hotel division which may fetch JP 2500-3000 cr* for further debt reduction

*JP Associates has mind boggling assets across various verticals*

JP Associate may _stop incurring loss from September 17 quarter_ onwards as Interest cost will plunge with lower depreciation

JP Associates undergoing complete restructuring.

TP Rs 21 June  Expiry

TP Rs 60 in 15 months

Tuesday 9 May 2017

Breaking News:

KAMADGIRI FASHIONS LTD: *Can merge with Future Retail*

Rationale for Merger:

Strategic tie-up with FUTURE group, KFL supplies 2 million garment
pieces every year

_Kishor Biyani holds 33.53% stake in KFL through his unlisted companies_

JFL is  Consitently dividend paying company,
Supplying garments to all leading brands in India including
Raymond, Park Avenue, Indigo Nation, Wills, John Players, Blackberry
etc

Mumbai based Kamadgiri Fashion Ltd (KFL) is engaged in production of
Textile Fabrics and Garments.

a) WEAVING DIVISION:  KFL has modern weaving plant comprising of
Sulzer, Somet and Psudocama  weaving machines

b) GARMENT DIVISION: KFL has been supplying
garments to all leading players like Parx, Lee Cooper, UMM, Rig, Park
Avenue, Arrow BlackBerry, Raymond etc. KFL is one of the major
supplier of garments to Future group and now, through strategic
tie-up, supplies 2 million pieces of garments to Future group each
year.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE:

For FY16, KFL has reported turnover of Rs 300 crores with PAT of 1.90
crores. Equity had increased from 5.06 crores to 5.44 crores after
allotment of shares to nonpromoter group @ Rs 62 per share.  KFL has
declared div of Rs 1.50. EPS was 3.68 and CASH EPS Rs 10.34

                      2017-18E

Sales                350

Net Profit          6.50    

EPS Rs               12

VALUATIONS:

*Current market cap is only 55 crores vs sales of 300 crores for FY16*

Even if KFL gets modest PERatio of 15, its share price should be  Rs 180 based upon FY18 earnings

HOWEVER SINCE KISHOR BIYANI ALREADY HOLDS BIG STAKE IN KFL AND KFL IS MAJOR GARMENT SUPPLIER TO FUTURE GROUP, KFL LIKELY TO BE
MERGED WITH FUTURE RETAIL WHICH WILL ENHANCE SYNERGY OF OPERATIONS AND COST CUTTING AT KFL. *SHAREHOLDERS OF KFL MAY GET 1 SHARE OF FUTURE RETAIL FOR EVERY 2.5 SHARES*

Monday 8 May 2017

THIEF OF CALCUTTA:

Usha Martin Ltd Re 1 FV

Usha Martin is amongst pioneers in India for production of wire ropes. However main objective of Promoter to go for capex appears to be siphoning off HUGE sums . That is why Company posted massive loss of 404 cr in FY16. Has already incurred 200 cr loss for 9month in current year

Bankers are equal partner in this crime who all these years have been sleeping over loans extended. Why bankers did not smell embezzlement of funds 3 years back when co started reporting big losses. Now is too late to bolt the shed when horse has fled
If forensic audits are done by competent agencies, Vijay Mallaya type frauds will be detected. There are _hundreds of Mini Vijay Mallaya_ ensconsed in luxuries of life for whom tax payers' money is holy water to take dip in

Revival of it's fortunes is extremely difficult unless lenders take big haircut

Investors be cautious whether such huge loss making company is a buy at cmp Rs 200 on 10 FV. Greed of Investors driving blindly to such counters who never bother to see Face Value of the stock

Saturday 6 May 2017

Rain Q1 lower than mkt expectations, but due to one off expense.
CPC prices are firm. USA booking for quarter and 6 month. Full impact from Q3 onwards. Domestic order short term, same reflecting in inreased margins
I feel that next year, cpc will become seller mkt. Genuine Investors should ignore short term hiccups. I feel promoter has created long term sustainable business and very few promoters in India as visionary, as honest, as efficient as Rain promoters. He has chalked out such road map for next 2 years that barring unforeseen circumstances, Rain can be 400-500 in less than 3 years.
Rain can be *Asian Paints* of CPC/CTP industry in the world

Friday 5 May 2017

Breaking News:

Dalmia Bharat Sugar:

For FY17, Co can report EPS of Rs 27.40. It means Q4 EPS of around 9.50. Stock has already risen sharply. Fresh buying should be avoided

Thursday 4 May 2017


CPC prices climb LIFETIME High: In April 207, CPC prices have spurted from 235 dollars to 275 dollars/ton ( *17% jump*)

With capacity of 2.5 million tonnes ( largest mfr in the world), Rain industries will reap rich harvest. Rain can have *PAT of 650-700 cr for CY17*

BIGGEST beneficiary of U.S. tax cut:

*Rain industries Limited*

With 7 plants spread across America contributing 4000+crores to topline and MAJOR portion of EBIDTA coming from USA operations,  Rain Industries will save heavily on Income Tax ( reduction from 35% to 15%).  Even if it takes few months for such proposal to be implemented, Rain will definitely avail of same as year ending (Dec17) is still far away

CY17 EPS set to be 19-21

TP Rs 200 in 12 months

Wednesday 3 May 2017

Dolly Khanna in Rain Industries:

Earlier Dolly Khanna was holding 3076915 shares of Rain ( bought in Feb/March). In the week gone by, DK has added 299224 shares.
As on date *Dolly Khanna holds more than 1% of Rain (1.003771% to be precise)*

100% Accurate Information

Tuesday 2 May 2017

TFCI makes *life time high*

However, this is the beginning. We advise our followers not to sell, not to do trading. Stock was being held low as IFCI sold more than 6 million shares in open mkt.

Even if mkt not booming, TFCI bound to give big appreciation as disinvestment is certainty. Even at current 1.3xBook, TFCI is Cheapest NBFC.

With just 30 employees and lowest establishment cost, TFCI under private sector management will grow multifold, will emerge as fastest growing NBFC

Breaking News: TFCI

Valuation report to decide reserve price of TFCI has been received by IFCI. DOW TIMES is confident that reserve price will be in 3 digits. IFCI likely to convene Board meeting around 15th May for eAuction

*eAuction can kick off by May end*

Hence, TFCI has potential to appreciate at least 30% from current levels