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Thursday 23 February 2017

FINANCIAL POWERHOUSE:

_Power Finance Corpn_: To stay ahead of Competition

1) NIM 4.74%

2) *Q3 Sanctions flare 64% to 32027cr vs 19520cr*

3) TOTAL SANCTIONS 174402 Cr as on 31/12/2016

4) *Loan Assets 237432Cr*

5) _Business per Employee at 502cr and NP per Employee 15.36cr is unparalleled_

6) Excellent track record of high Div(139% in FY16 gives 10%+ yield)

*Trading @ 0.95xBook, 4.68 PERatio and likely Div yield of 10% for FY17*

Undoubtedly MOST UNDERVALUED

TP Rs 160 March expiry (For REC we have TP 161 March expiry but stock already 159)

Wednesday 22 February 2017

DoW Technicals:.        

Buy PFC @139-140  

TP 150 .       

    SL 136

Den Of Wealth:
Big Breaking News:

Power Finance Corpn:

Company will convene Board meeting next week for a major announcement. Stock will rerated and stock price can be 150+ next weekend

Buy TODAY

*CASTROL: TP 576* by Phillip Capital.       

  Q4CY16 - PAT of Rs.1.56bn, up 11% yoy . EBITDA of Rs.2.2bn, up 3-4% yoy.

Volumes grew at 2% yoy to ~46.8mn.ltr, slightly bettering our revised est of 1% gr. Qoq volumes + 2%. Management cited challenging conditions owing to demonetisation, yet both automotive & industrial performed resiliently. Personal mobility and power brands grew at double digit.

Net realisation rose slightly by 1% qoq to Rs.167.2/ltr while GM was up 2% qoq to Rs.88.8/ltr. EBITDA/ltr was up 1% qoq to Rs.46.9, largely inline with opex rising based on seasonal trend.

Product launch continued with 2 eco friendly/clean lubes in automotive & a high performance cutting oil.

Final dividend of Rs.4.5 and sp divd of Rs.2 declared. With int divd of Rs.4.5, total dividend is Rs.11/sh implying *80%+ payout and 3% yield.*RD 3 Mar.
Buy

High Risk SUPER HIGH GAIN

_Power Finance Corpn_

Buy 140CE

SL 25 paise

Hold till Expiry

TP Rs 1.65/2.45/2.90

Tuesday 21 February 2017

Breaking News: Castrol India Ltd

Today co has to announce results for Q4 and CY16. We feel that management may spring surprise by announcing Bonus Shares as well

For Power packed Gains:

_Power Finance Corpn_

1) Q3 NP spurts 23% at 1949cr vs 1582cr. *Highest ever quarterly profit*

2) _FY17Eeps 28_

3) PERatio 4.68 only. Lowest in NBFC industry

4) *PricexBook 0.95*.

5) ESTABLISHMENT COST TO INCOME RATIO: 1.74%  *LOWEST IN INDIA/GLOBALLY*

6) Loan Sanction Book gives biz pipeline for _45 months_

PFC can be termed as _TCS of NBFC industry_. Yet lowest valuations

Wait for more big information

TP Rs 144-148 Feb Expiry

TP Rs 160-165 March expiry

Will zoom like REC

Fundamentally, BEST Buy in NBFC industry

FASTEST GROWING ELECTRIC UTILITY *IN THE WORLD*

TP: 228 March Expiry
TP: 400 in 2 years

_PowerGrid Corpn India Ltd_

PGIL has reported Q3 NP 1930cr vs 1606cr, _whopping 20.17% jump_

*9month NP spurts to 5603cr vs 4379cr, 28% rise*
EPS 10.71. FY17Eeps 15.50
FY18Eeps 18

TOTAL ORDERS IN HAND 146000Cr

Unbelievable but True: 90% Power Transmission Network (ISCS) owned by PowerGrid

PowerGrid is fastest growing Electric Utility in the world, having reached a size and acquired strengths that almost negligible competition

_More amazing facts about PowerGrid tomorrow_

Double Trigger: Siemens Ltd

Breaking News: Siemens sells Mumbai(Worli) property for _610 cr_

Huge special Div upon receipt of 610cr

Q3 PAT  *spurts 44% to 160 cr vs 111cr*

TP 1292

SL 1175

REC LTD  (150)

Next in upside 166--169 

Minor Resistance @ 157

SL 146 on Closing Basis.

F&O STOCK

Now follow DoW Technicals ( which should prove highly accurate) for fabulous gains

Monday 20 February 2017

Management Interview : REC Ltd
We are looking at very robust growth in power sector demand
Mr. PV Ramesh - Chairman

Firstly, just a general outlook on what you are expecting from the power sector demand per se for the year ahead?
PV Ramesh: We are looking at a very robust growth in the power sector demand across the value chain. We have today per capita consumption of about 1000KW we expect this to double in the next five years. The Government of India’s objective is to provide 24x7 quality power at a competitive price to every citizen of this country and in this direction major efforts are being made in both generation, transmission and especially the distribution network. The new UDAY scheme has a far reaching influence on restructuring and rejuvenating the discoms. There are further efforts that are being made in extending electricity to every single village in the country by end of this year and to provide power to every household and there are nearly 5 crore households without power. So we foresee a very robust growth across the value chain of the power sector and especially with the goal of adding another 261GW generation capacity of which 175GW is to come from green energy investments. These are especially interesting times for all players in the power sector and the Rural Electrification Corporation, has been a major player for nearly 50 years in this sector, with investments across the country, across the value chain, and has been the coordinator for implementing UDAY and also the Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana and range of other programmes of Government of India. We have offices across the country working with all the state electricity boards, the power utilities and we have strategic position in terms of working with both the public sector, private sector and from the generation II village level. We see the very robust growth in the coming years.

So I am guessing you are banking on market share gains in the SEB financing segment as well sir?
PV Ramesh: Yes, absolutely because with the state we have been working with the state electricity boards for the last 48 years and we have a major share and the number of interventions that are being taking place as you are well aware in terms of the generation there is a rationalisation in terms of coal supply, the quality of coal, the goal of the Coal India to double its production as well as productivity. Now all this would contribute to further modernisation of generation but major investments are taking place in transmission, network and especially at the distribution network. The goal is to reduce the technical and commercial losses of the distribution companies from 22% at present to 15% by 2019 so that is a major effort that is being made. The first step in that is the UDAY where the debt of the discoms across the country has been substantially redeemed and now the major efforts are being made in terms of reforming governance and also investing in technological upgradation. So our close proximity to the state electricity boards in this regard really helps us both in terms of modernising and in terms of achieving 24x7 power for all by turn of this decade.

So which is good to know, now the other aspect is and I think you made a brief reference or somebody else was making a reference this morning about how impactful the UDAY scheme seems to be. What is your thought of the UDAY bonds on the loan book for a company like yours. Anything that you would want to share here?
PV Ramesh: Let me clearly explain this. Actually, there is no UDAY bond as such. It is actually 75% of the UDAY debt is now transferred to the government books of accounts. I mean there was an outstanding debt of about Rs 4.3 lakh crores of which Rs 3 lakh crores is what was meant to be redeemed but some of the states like Karnataka and Gujarat they said they are financially well so they would not be opted for the operational efficiency part of the UDAY and not for the financial restructuring. But overall we received a pre-payment from Discoms to the tune of about Rs 30,500 crores and we are expecting another Rs 12,000 crores from the last from Tamil Nadu and Telangana which have come on board very recently. This has not affected our books of accounts. Actually our loan book was showing Rs 2.01 lakh crores on March 31. At the end of September, it is Rs 1,96,000 crores. What we have done basically is the pre-payment we have received, we have stepped up sanctions in disbursements so we have had an additional disbursement of about Rs 28,000 crores additionally compared to the first half year of 2016 and compared to 2015 first half year. So what it meant is an accelerated disbursement because the demand for investment is growing and so overall our books are very healthy and then we further planned to step up in the coming year, coming second half of this year and the 2017-2018 you would see that the major investments would flow into two sectors. One, of course, is the renewables and creating the green energy corridor and on the other side is the modernisation of the distribution network, I mean whether it is feeder separation, whether it is smart metering and smart grid management and the transmission network modernisation so there is a substantial addressing of the value chain of the power sector. So we are quite robust in our operations.

Would you say then that this will translate on higher margins as well from you guys for the entire year. I know you would be in a silent period so do not give me exact numbers but would it be safe to assume that it would be a higher trajectory?
PV Ramesh: Yes. I mean higher trajectory from two things. One of course is the volume of business. I mean the level of investments we are making and the second one of course is the quality of investments that we are making in the assets and also third is the quicker project execution and management. Actually REC has two subsidiaries which are involved in providing services across the power sector value chain. So we are working with the state utilities especially the Discoms and of course is the transmission, the generation companies to really address the quality of investments and timely completion of the projects. So this should translate into much higher margins in terms of the returns notwithstanding the fact that there is a trend towards lowering of the interest rates which we as public financial company have been very responsive to.

*Can any other NBFC/Bank/Financial Institutions have similar Ratios?*

_Rural Electrification Corp_

Q3 NP SPURTS 28%

PERatio. 4.17

_Book Value Rs 170_

Yield on Assets. 11.71%

Cost of Funds.     8.32%

Net Interest Margin 4.69%

Interest Spread.    3.39%

*Cost to Income ratio( Lowest)*.     1.68%

*Business per Employee 314.73 crores*

9M EPS Rs 24.95

FY17Eeps 34

*Profit per employee 10.57 crores*

Rs 7 interim Div. Gives 5% Yield

Big Breaking News: REC

1) REC being included by NSE in NIFTY 100 and NIFTY Next-50

2) REC signs BIG MOU with Andhra Pradesh Generation Corpn to provide financial assistance of Rs 40,000 cr

3) REC signs another MOU with Transmission Corporate of Andhra​ Pradesh to provide Rs 10,000 cr financial assistance

4) One more MOU with Andhra Pradesh Discoms for Rs 10,000 cr

5) Karnataka Power Company Ltd also signs MOU with REC to get Rs 27121 cr from REC

6) And finally Bangalore Electricity Supply Corpn signs MOU with REC for Rs 12,000 cr

Thus Loan Sanction *shoots up by whopping ONE LAKH CRORES*

TP Rs 161 March series

Notice from JP Associates

Co has informed Bse about rescheduling of FCCB. It clearly indicates that FCCB will be converted in Equity at later stage at MUCH HIGHER price

In same notice, co has mentioned about _realignment of balance debt_ It means balance debt is also being rejigged/steps being tkn to reduce balance debt

FASTEST GROWING ELECTRIC UTILITY *IN THE WORLD*

TP: 224 March Expiry
TP: 400-450 in 2 years

_PowerGrid Corpn India Ltd_

PGIL has reported Q3 NP 1930cr vs 1606cr, _whopping 20.17% jump_

*9month NP spurts to 5603cr vs 4379cr, 28% rise*
EPS 10.71. FY17Eeps 15.50
FY18Eeps 18

TOTAL ORDERS IN HAND 146000Cr

Unbelievable but True: 90% Power Transmission Network (ISCS) owned by PowerGrid

PowerGrid is fastest growing Electric Utility in the world, having reached a size and acquired strengths that almost negligible competition

_More amazing facts about PowerGrid Tuesday_

Do You Know?

JP Associates Ltd:

1) Jaypee International Sports, a division of JP Associate which built world renowned F-1 racing track, holds *2000 acres ( yes Two Thousand) land* for development of SDZ with sports as a core activity by YEIDA

2) *Fertilizer Business*: Jaypee Fertilizer & Industries Ltd had acquired Fertilizer division of Duncan's. It has 3 Ammonia/Urea streams, 4 bagging lines,2boilers, . Famous for 'Chand Chhap' Urea. Making profit. *Worth more than 900cr*

3) JAYPEE HEALTHCARE: Jaypee Hospital in Noida with *504 beds is spread over 25acres*. With such huge land parcel, can be extended upto 2000+ beds.

4) LAND PARCELS : Real estate division has land parcels of total *4104 acres* ( cost few lacs per acre). However, now these land parcels are _worth more than entire debt of co_

TP: 20-21 in 2-3 weeks. Will not be surprised if 25 March Expiry

Sunday 19 February 2017

Advice on JP Associates Ltd

Although this FnO stock has risen 50% in few days, I feel this is the beginning of real Achche Din ( not political dialogue, we mean it) for JP Associate and it's shareholders. Many more big developments in pipeline to enable co reduce its Debt total by 80%. Mkt value of its assets/ investments can be 6-8 x total existing debt. Promoter didn't siphon off money. But entire biz spread over verticals which are capital intensive and long gestation period. Created multi faceted multilocation biz empire but did not delegate mgtmnt to professionals, leading to inefficiency. However, promoter realised that he had overstretched and now, doing sincerely his best to reduce debt to reasonable levels ( by disposing off few businesses values of which have grown multifold)
If plan of promoter to bring co back from brink sails through ( and it will), stock can be 50-80 in 2018.
In mkt, analysts tend to swing between irrational exuberance/ optimism to unwarranted pessimism

_An optimist sees Green Light everywhere. A pessimist sees Red light everywhere. Wisest is the color blind_

We can only advise our followers:

A. Not to sell for 12-18 months if holding in cash . *Can add more even at cmp*

B. *If holding in Future, keep on rolling for few months*

C. *Options: Can take fresh position once out of ban*

We expect some major announcement in very near future which can take its share price up by 20-30%

Friday 17 February 2017

Technical View: JP Associates Ltd:

SL 12.80

TP 15.40 February Expiry

Above view of an analyst of a Leading brokerage houses

Mind boggling Asset Base: _One of its kind_

JP Associates Ltd:

Apart from cement capacity of 11 million ton ( after sale of 21 million to Ultratech), co also has:

1) Jaypee Greens Noida. Spread across 452 acres

2) Jaypee Greens Wish Town Noida. Massive 1063 acres

3) Jaypee Greens Sports City. Huge 2500 acres

4) Jaypee Greens Aman Noida Expressway. 89 acres

5) *Coal Mines*: JP Associate has set up 3 JVs for development of 3 Coal blocks, namely, Amelia (North), Dongri Tal-II and Mandla with shareholding ratio of 51:49 between MPSMCL and JPA

Stay tuned for MORE Breaking News on its other Assets Base and INVESTMENTS

Current mkt cap is TINY if compared with Diversified productive Assets

*Stock will be re-rated soon when Ultratech money is received in next few days*

BUY BUY TP Rs 20-21 in 2-3 weeks

Thursday 16 February 2017

JP Associate:

Stock was under ban upto yesterday. Now stock has come out of ban. Hence, now Investors can buy

JP Associate: TP 20-21 March Expiry

*Huge Triggers: Complete turnaround*

1) Co has total 32.85 million ton cement capacity ( out of which 5.2 million ton under construction). JP had sold 21.2 million ton to Ultratech for 16189 cr. _After this sale, JP will have 11 million ton cement capacity_

JP will *receive this amount* from Ultratech in next 1-2 weeks maximum. Thus total debt of 37294 ( short term, long term) will come down to 21105 cr, leading to substantial reduction in interest cost from June quarter onwards.

2)Further JP owns following Five Star luxury hotels (of which _2 are in prime location of Delhi_):

Jaypee Siddharth Continental Delhi 94 rooms

Jaypee Vasant Continental, Vasant Vihar Delhi 119 rooms

Jaypee Residency Manor Mussourie 135 rooms

Jaypee Palace & Convention Centre Agra 341 rooms

Jaypee Greens Golf & Spa Resorts *( 70 acres)* Noida 170 Suites

JP Associate likely to SELL Hotel division which may fetch JP 2500-3000 cr for further debt reduction

Finally JP lenders likely to convert part of their debt in equity @18-20 per share

With above steps, JP Associate may stop incurring loss from September 17 quarter onwards as Interest cost will plunge with lower depreciation

Stock can be 50-60 in 18 months, being accumulated by Ultra HNIs

Multibagger ( or zero) Idea:

JP Associate:

Buy 15CE @ 10-15 paise

SL: 0

TP 65/75 paise. Hold till expiry

Wednesday 15 February 2017

Downgrade to *SELL* by all brokerage houses

_Punjab National Bank_

                           TP

Nirmal Bang.     92

Religare.            100

Ambit.                110

UBS.                    110

Q3 NII  down 9% YoY

Q3 Other Income higher 50% YoY

Q3 NP down 207cr vs 559 QoQ vs Bloomberg 613cr

Q3 Income Tax 11cr vs 229cr

Stock looks manipulated ( that headline Asset quality stable)

Treasury Income should be much lower in Q4

Should fall

Looking at weak and deteriorating financials, IDBI Bank stock price will,sooner or later, plunge. Stock price has been holding , despite disastrous nos, in expectation of disinvestment. However, ADB, IFC no longer interested to buy stake. We are confident that no disinvestment will take place in foreseeable future. S&P had already downgraded IDBI

Andhra Cement Ltd:One more Update:

In 2015, Sagar Cement had started negotiation to acquire ACL. Sagar Cement had offered Rs 20/share. However deal didn't finalize as promoter was asking still higher Valuations.

Since then, valuations of cement plants have gone up substantially

Hence we estimate that now, *Andhra cement deal should take place @ 23+*

As per our information, Shree Cement may clinch the acquisition

TP 50-60 in 12-15 months

Tuesday 14 February 2017

Andhra cement: Add more

Andhra cement has reported Loss for Q3 with negative EPS of -0.84
Investors may note that this stock was not recommended on basis of financials. Due to working capital crunch, co is operating at hardly 35-40% capacity.

Ultratech Shree Cement and Emami group in race to acquire Andhra cement controlling stake. Deal will take place at 18-23 per share. Once co goes in strong hands of any of 3 suitors, co can operate at optimum capacity and start reporting decent profit as co has 46 mw Power plant for 2.60 million ton capacity

Stock can be 50 within 1 year of acquisition

Buy Power Gridl: Mitessh Thakkar

Mitessh Thakkar of miteshthacker.com suggests buying Power Grid

Mitessh Thakkar of miteshthacker.com told CNBC-TV18, "I have a buy on Power Grid which is showing signals of an uptrend again. So buy it with a stop loss just below Rs 201.50 and look for Rs 212 as the target."

Note on Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd.

POWERGRID ASSETS :

a) Transmission Lines : 134750 CKM (Largest in the World)

b) Substations : 217 Nos. : 280362 MVA

c) 90% of ISTS Transmission Network owned by POWERGRID

1. Fastest growing electric utility globally.

2. Domestic Credit Rating by all three top rating agencies – AAA

3. 45% of Power Generator in India Transmitted through Power Grid

4. Total orders in hand - worth Rs.139000Crores, including assignment fromoverseas

5. Against planned capital outlay of Rs.110000 Crores in XII plan over a period of 5 years, the company has already incurred capex of Rs.100000Crores till Dec.'2016. The company is much ahead of the targets. The Capexis incurred out of the internal accrualsand by raising bonds, borrowings from banks and financial institutions.

6. Against the total borrowing of aroundRs.110000 Crores as on 30.12.2016, the finance cost is around 4747 Croresfor the nine month ended Dec.'2016 which means that the borrowing cost is about 5.75%. The company is able to raise funds at low cost because of its highest rating i.e. AAA by top rating agencies. The tariff for usage oftransmission lines is fixed by CERC based on 12% return on the capital employed. The company is getting spread of more than 6% per annum.

7. The company is looking at very robust growth in view of power sector demand. The new UDAY scheme has also a far-reaching influence on the power sector by restructuring and rejuvenating the DISCOMs. There is a forecast that another 261 GW capacity of power generation is going to comeup in the near future. Accordingly, there is a continuous momentum in transmission expansion. Govt. of India is also focusing on increasing electricity access to Rural Areas. The company is prospecting 24 X 7 affordable power for all by 2019 with per capita consumption of about 4000 units by 2030 at a CAGR of 10%

8. The company has also got consultancy assignments internationally viz. Nepal, Kenya, Bhutan, Bangladesh, UAE, Uganda, Liberia, Indonesia etc.

9. Growth in key Financial areas on QoQ is robust as can be seen from below -

The net margin of 36% post depreciation and finance cost is very exciting. Over a period, depreciation and interest cost will come down and margin may further improve significantly.

A) Orders worth 14,000 Cr. In Pipeline.

B) Has declared Re 1 as Interim Dividend. Total Dividend for FY17 will be Rs 5 (based upon 5% ofNetworth Formula).

C) 20% CAGR possible considering that Government is planning 24X7 Power for all by 2019 and Renewable Interconnectivity 175GW by 2022. Creation of EnergyHighways : 11 High capacity Corridors of 4000MW each and 3 High capacity HVDC of 6000MW each.

D) Consultancy Business with margin of 80% growing rapidly.

E) Railway Electrification has opened huge opportunity for POWERGRID. PGIL already got Pilot project for 761km whereas Government is targeting 24000km electrification by 2021.

Summary : PGIL has emerged as the FASTEST GROWING POWER UTILITY IN THE WORLD. It has emerged as a Monolith, with hardly any Wothwhile Competition

Extremely Low Borrowing Cost and Lowest Establishment Cost will keep PGIL Miles ahead of Competition.

TP(Investors): Can be Rs.450-500 in 24months(barring unforeseen)

TP(Traders): Can be Rs.220 Feb Expiry, Rs. 245 March Expiry

Monday 13 February 2017

Result Update: Sankhya Infotech Ltd:

_Q3 PAT spurts 72% at 1.44 cr vs 84lacs_
Huge improvement in margins
*9m PAT 3.90cr vs 3.97cr full FY16*

With Mktcap of just 60cr vs FY18E revenue Rs 190cr. Sankhya Infotech still UNDERVALUED
TP in 3 digits in 2018

*Debt Free Engineering co available at attractive valuations: DHP India Ltd*

_Q3 EPS 8.73_
_Q3 PBT spurts four fold 4cr vs 1.03cr_
_Q3 NP flares by 240% at 2.62cr vs 77lacs_
*9m NP 5.45cr vs 4.90 cr full FY16*

Calcutta based DHP India Ltd is engaged in production of Valves and
other accessories used in gas cyliners.   Gas cylinders are used by
all OMCs like HPCL, BPCL, Indian Oil. DHP has reported good nos
for 9m and is available at very low PE Multiples
with high promoter holding and hence, the recommendation.

FUTURE OUTLOOK:

        2016-17E  2017-18E

Sales          47        65

PAT          8.29       11

*EPS Rs  27.35   36.65*

DHP is setting up a new factory to meet increased demand which is expected to be operational in July17.

DHP India, in the field of high precision engineering, is an
attractive buy considering:

1. DHP is trading at 10.60xFY17E Eps

2. DHP is trading at 7.90xFY18E Eps

3. *Debt Free*

4.  Promoter stake 74.37%

Even if DHP gets modest valuation of 12, stock price should be Rs 430/FY18 earnings.  Equity is so small that if big buying from HNI investors
emerges, stock can be even Rs 600 in 18 months

BTST: PFC

Technically, BTST target 141

SL 131.50

Accuracy like No One Else:

_One & Only DoW_

DoW was perhaps only site to recommend Pasupati Acrylic and Indian Acrylic last year. Subsequently, both stocks tripled
Thereafter, we recommended sell of Pasupati @ 34-35 and I Acrylic @ 22, warning that Acrylic fibre industry will have much less profits from Q2 onwards

However, some of our rivals came out with buy reports with fancy targets with strong buy recommendations.

Now Pasupati and I Acrylic both have nosedived, causing huge loss to those Investors who followed advice of our rivals

Derivative Stock of Feb:

_Power Finance Corporation_

Q3 results NOW:

*PFC should post highest ever quarterly NP. Q3 NP should witness whopping 18% jump vs 1563cr YoY*

Also, Highest disbursement and Sanctions

_Total loan book can be as high as 2.35 lac crores and Sanctions may touch 1 lac crores_

Stock can be 155 February End

Will be re-rated by all brokerage houses

Friday 10 February 2017

Latest update: Sankhya Infotech Ltd

SIL which has recently bagged very big orders from Boeing and Defense will be doing Preferential Offer @ 55 to a very big name/Investor which can rerate the stock

DO NOT MISS: BUY TODAY

JP ASSOCIATES

1) Rs 16890cr of cement plants sale to Ultratech being received in 2 weeks.  *Total debt will stand reduced by 50%*

2) Thereafter, part of Debt by lenders to be converted in Equity for further debt reduction ( @Rs 19-21)

3) Co owns Five 5 Star Hotels. _Hotel division being demerged to unlock value_

Has mind blowing Assets in Power, Infra, Real Estate, Hospital, Sports, Fertilizer and cement( even after sale to Ultratech will have huge capacity)

TP Rs 18-20 February 2017

TP Rs 45-50 in 6-12 months

Biggest Turnaround on way

No Stoploss

Investment Call

FASTEST GROWING ELECTRIC UTILITY *IN THE WORLD*

TP: 224 February End
TP: 400-450 in 2 years

_PowerGrid Corpn India Ltd_

PGIL has reported Q3 NP 1930cr vs 1606cr, _whopping 20.17% jump_

*9month NP spurts to 5603cr vs 4379cr, 28% rise*
EPS 10.71. FY17Eeps 15.50
FY18Eeps 18

TOTAL ORDERS IN HAND 146000Cr

Unbelievable but True: 90% Power Transmission Network (ISCS) owned by PowerGrid

PowerGrid is fastest growing Electric Utility in the world, having reached a size and acquired strengths that almost negligible competition

_More amazing facts about PowerGrid on Monday_

Thursday 9 February 2017

Buy NOW: Results today

PowerGrid Q3:

As per estimate of denofwealth, co likely to show whopping 20-21% rise YoY in PAT.

Many more triggers in pipeline

TP  225-228 February 2017

Buy NOW:

Maharashtra Seamless Ltd:

Co to announce Q3 results on 10th. As per estimate of denofwealth, co should announce fabulous NP. Co has also bagged 421 cr from ONGC, adding to its burgeoning order book

Stock may touch 350 next week

Latest update on Sankhya Infotech:

Co has bagged big order from Boeing.

For FY18, Sankhya NP will be 10cr+

TP: in 3 digits in 2018

Q3 Hindustan Zinc Ltd:

As per denofwealth estimates, co can report NP of 2360 cr which is much higher YoY basis but lower than Bloomberg estimate. Stock has already run up significantly

Essential Facts: TANFAC Ind

1) TANFAC plant has 60 acres land. It means, co can undertake manifold expansion at existing site. For academic purposes,  _value of this land alone is more than Mktcap of co_

2) Sharp decrease in Finance Cost

3) Promoters include GRASIM, Hindalco, Pilani Investment

4) It's Technology tie up include Davy from Switzerland, Chenco from Germany

5) *Largest mfr of Aluminium fluoride and Hydrofluoric Acid in India*

6) Market leader in AIF3,HF

7) TANFAC also makes Peracetic Acid, Acetic acid, Potassium fluoride

With estimated EPS of 15 and 19 for FY17 and FY18, stock appears grossly undervalued

Q3 results scheduled for today should unveil Highest Ever quarterly NP

Wednesday 8 February 2017

Good Q3 nos likely:

Tourism Finance Corp Ltd:

*For Q3, TFCI can report NP of 20 cr vs 15.50cr YoY, rising nearly 30%*

In fact, 9 month NP of TFCI can be more than NP of entire FY16

And TFCI is set to report _lifetime high NP in FY17_

Co already reported 36.51 NP in H1 with EPS of 4.52.

9month NP can be 56 cr vs 53 cr NP of FY16

TFCI is set to report NP of 80cr for FY17

*Book Value is Rs 64 which should rise to 72-73 on 31st March17*

Available at 6xFY17Eeps and 0.90xFY17 Book value, this PSU is underpriced and set for treating

Stock should be in 3 digits in 3-6 months

_Cheapest Speciality Chemicals Stock_

*Birla group stock:Tiny Mktcap*

TANFAC INDUSTRIES LTD

Aditya Birla group co promoted with TIDCO, is in production of

1) Aluminum Fluoride: used by Aluminum industry. Due to rising production of aluminium, Aluflouride prices have spurted in last 3 quarters

2) Hydrofluoric Acid: used for manufacture of Refrigerant

3) Oleum: used in chemical industry
TANFAC has world class Technology and makes several other chemicals.

            Q2FY17. Q2FY16

Sales.       33.      24

NP/Loss  3.15.  -4.45

Equity.       9.98

EPSRs.      3.16

TANFAC reported spectacular turnaround in current year.

_H1 NP is 5.48cr, translating in EPS of Rs 5.48_

Aluminum Fluoride prices have risen further. Due to rising demand from Aluminum industry, prices continue to firm as no new capacities have come up in last few years

H2 should be significantly better than H1

               FY17E.  FY18E

Sales.     145.    165

NP.           15.       19

EPSRs.    15.       19

Stock is trading at 5xFY18Eeps

This Aditya Birla group stock is DEFINITELY underpriced

Stock can be 150 in 9 months and can cross 200 in 15 months

UBS ON PNB : _SELL TP Rs 110_

Capital position relatively weak with core tier I ratio at 8.3% in Q3 FY17

Expect margins pressure to continue on weak loan growth, cut in lending rates
UBS ON PNB *Sell, target of ₹110*

Q3 FY17 results: GNPL formation still high; Low PCR to impact profitability

Tuesday 7 February 2017

Disastrous Q3: IDBI Bank

IDBI Bank can report horrible  nos for Q3:

As against NP of 296 cr in H1, *Q3 LOSS can be in 4 digits*

1) We fear heavy slippages and NPAs from some big accounts

2) Expected recovery of NPAs didn't materialize

3) Big rise in costs due to demonetization

4) In fact, situation is so precarious that bank may come under PCA ( under supervision of RBI) as *CAR may fall below 9%*

5) Finally, expected part _disinvestment unlikely to happen in 2017 as institutions not satisfied/optimistic in due diligence_

Neither IFC nor ADB presently showing any interest to buy stake.
We can say that *part disinvestment is on back burner now*

Stock should fall

Punjab National Bank Q3

Net interest income, the difference between interest earned and interest expended, fell 9.4 percent year-on-year to Rs 3,730.80 crore in October-December quarter, with negative loan growth of 1.8 percent at Rs 3.85 lakh crore.

Update on PNB:

Has reported NP of 208 crores vs Bloomberg estimate 613 cr and even lower than denofwealth estimates of 230 cr

After dipping, stock has bounced back to 150.

We advise *not to do short covering in panic. HOLD*

Stock should come down

Breaking News

PNB Q3: Big miss

PNB had reported NP of 559 cr for Q2.
And Bloomberg estimate for Q3 is 613 cr
However, denofwealth estimates that bank has suffered heavily in Q3 due to less recovery of NPAs ( overload of Notebandi burden), higher interest outgo on huge cash deposits and additional slippages

We estimate that *NP should be 230cr vs Bloomberg 613 vs Q2 559cr*

_Moreover, due to irrational exuberance, stock is nearly 30% up from 1 month low of 115_

Worth SHORT SELLING

TP: can be 135 Feb Expiry

_Too Good_

*Please read carefully*

Oudh Sugar Mills:

                  Q3FY17 9mFY17

Sales       368.     1028

PBT.          76.       133

Income.  14.65.  14.65
Tax
*Deferred. 26.15.  46*
Tax

NP.           34.73.  72.56

EPS.        12.90.   26.51

OSML has literally reported mind losing nos for Q3

_Q3 NP is almost equivalent to H1 NP_
Co has provided 26 cr for Deferred Tax which is mere *accounting entry, no cash outgo*. It means actual NP for Q3 alone is 60 cr and _actual EPS for Q3 alone is 23_

Similarly, for 9 months, deferred tax is 46cr. Thus, *real NP for 9 months is 118 cr which gives EPS of 45*

In Q4, sugar realisation is higher by Rs 2 per kg. _It means Q4 should be better than bumper Q3_

*TP 300-350 in 6 months*

Most attractive stock in Sugar industry

Update on Andhra cement:
As per our reliable source, cement giants Shree Cement, Ultratech and FMCG Emami group are in race to acquire Andhra cement

Presently, Andhra cement is operating only at 40-45% capacity.Post acquisition, co can ramp up production to 80-90% easily and turn profitable

With JSW acquiring Shiva ( which is a mini cement plant), share price of Shiva shot upto 18.50

When Andhra cement has 2.6 million ton capacity, stock can be 50-60 within 1 year after acquisition

Monday 6 February 2017

Q3 Upper Ganges Sugar:

Co is set to announce lacklustre nos

Q3 NP may be around 14cr which is better than 4cr loss in corresponding quarter of previous year

But same should be lower than 18cr of Q2 and 23 cr of Q1

Another Hot Breaking News for DoW members:

Oudh Sugar Q3 today

Co has reported NP of 37 cr for H1.
As per our estimate, *Oudh can report PAT of 30cr for Q3 alone*. And this figure after substantial provision for Deferred Tax ( which is just accounting entry)

Stock can flare up.

Exclusive Breaking News for DoW members:

Andhra Cement Ltd:

2 BIG cement majors and 1 FMCG in cut throat bid to acquire controlling stake in Andhra cement.

ACL has 2.6 million cement and 45 mw captive power plant.

Deal may materialize @ Rs 23-25

If deal goes through ( promoter don't change his mind):

*TP Rs 23/45/65( over 1 year period)*

DIVI'S LAB: TP 830,900

Subsequent to steep fall( 1385 in Sep16), Divi looks set for a bounce back.

Q3 is better despite  *income tax provision@ 27% vs 20%*

Sales 976cr vs 860cr YoY

EBIDTA margin 39% vs 37.6%

PBT 368cr vs 307cr, *up20%*

PAT 268cr vs 246cr, up 9%

Q3 tax provision 100cr vs 61cr

For 9 month, PAT 794cr vs 789 cr _despite one time provision of 79 cr towards exgratia payment_

Divi had already filed reply to FDA observations

Looking at high of 1385 in Sept 2016,  stock can bounce back to 900

*Q3 up 1400%*:Dwarikesh Sugar

Dwarikesh Sugar has reported fabulous nos for Q3;

Net Sales  220cr vs 210cr

_NP 42.35cr vs 2.84cr_

EPS Rs 22 vs 1.25

Q3 NP up 1400% despite *one time provision of 11cr*

_9month EPS 63.64 vs -9.96_

With further rise in sugar price in recent weeks, Q4 should be better than Q3

Dwarikesh should report EPS of Rs 90 for FY17

Even if stock gets modest PERatio of 8, stock price should be Rs 700 in 3-6 months

Saturday 4 February 2017

Divis laboratory

As per our source, co likely to announce handsome Interim Dividend

Will not be surprised if buyback is also announced

Friday 3 February 2017

Buy NOW TODAY

Dwarikesh Sugar:

Co reported NP of 69cr in H1.

*As per our estimate, Q3 NP can be 65cr*

9month NP can be 166 cr on equity of 18.83cr

Can share price be Rs 650 on few weeks?

Multibagger idea in Options

_Jaiprakash Associate Ltd_

Buy CALL of strike price 12.50

TP 1.85/2.50/3.35

SL 0.85

*Land Sale Value more than Mktcap*

Triveni Glass Ltd

Co has 72acre land in Allahabad (this plant was closed several years ago).
Triveni already _received 26 cr as advance payment_

Balance payment of around 45 cr can be expected shortly. And current mktcap is around 40 crores

With expected eps of 11 for FY18, stock is tipped to be in 3 digits. Buying recommended for Multibagger appreciation

Thursday 2 February 2017

HUGE TRIGGER IN OFFING:

_Triveni Glass Ltd_

Andhra  Pradesh govt is building huge township name AMRAVATI to be state capital. This new city entails huge huge demand for building materials.
*Triveni Glass will be big big beneficiary as it's plant is just 80km away from AMRAVATI and there is no other plant within 200 km radius*

Such huge demand will change fortunes of TGL completely as TGL will wield strong pricing power.

If all goes well, TGL can become 300 cr company by 2020 by which time stock should cross 200

_Cheapest building materials stock_

Wednesday 1 February 2017

Update on Sankhya Infotech:

SIL has bagged from Defense single biggest order of Rs 100 crores. This breakthrough is really big.

Similarly, SIL has also bagged some big orders from aviation industry.

_Sankhya is only profit making IT co available at Mktcap of 50 crores_

We are fairly confident that stock can be in *3 digit in CY17 itself*

Buying strongly recommended

Some Updates;

1) SKM Egg Products: Actual NP is as per estimate of denofwealth. Since our Breaking News, stock has fallen sharply from Rs 70

2) Dalmia Bharat Sugar: Q3 NP exactly as per estimate of denofwealth

3) Kiri Industries: At a time when Investors expecting bumper Q3 nos, we had warned that Q3 nos will be lacklustre and advised to sell at 340. As a result, stock had come below 300

4) Shipping Corpn: We warned that co can post small loss for Q3. Although results are yet to be announced, stock has already started downward journey

Denofwealth is truly *One & Only"*