Larsen Toubro Ltd:
Q1 result today( after mkt hours)
May fall how our sell recomm Dr Reddy fell

Denofwealth estimates Q1 Ebidta to be 2140cr vs CNBC est of 2500cr, whopping 14 percent miss

Denofwealth estimates PAT to be 630cr vs CNBC est of 770 cr and Street est of 790cr, again big miss

Results expected to be weak despite Ind AS ( due to revised accounting standards many large corporates making big gains)

Stock is 50 percent higher than its Feb16 price of 1016.

One month high 1615

Technically also, stock looking weak and Once 1520 is  breached, TP Rs 1401 in 2-4 weeks

Appears strong sell

Poised for upsurge.                  

Virtually Debtfree. Graham Valuation Rs 209.63. Intrinsic Value Rs 463.97.Cmp Rs 135

FY16 EPS 16.34

PERatio only 8.20

Q4FY16 Eps 5.63

BValue Rs 118

Produces Valves and other accessories for Gas Cylinders (HPCL BPCL IOC etc)

Promoter 74 percent

FY17Eeps. Rs 22

Tdg @ 6.10xFY17Eeps

Even if gets modest valuation of 12, stock price can be Rs 260

Small eq and high promoter stake may lead to still higher valuations

DHP India Ltd 531306 Bse

Bajaj Auto Ltd Q1:Buy

Short sellers may be trapped
Stock has bn pulled down from 2800 level as rumours in mkt that co vl report lower Sales and Lower Ebidta ( 1175cr). However denofwealth estimates:

Sales to be 5980cr vs Bloomberg est 5950cr and ETBrokerage est 5960cr

Ebidta Margin: Should be 20.9percent as against vs ETBrokerage 20.5percent and Bloomberg 21percent

Con PAT can be 1034cr vs 803cr for Q4/FY16

Other Income: Q1FY16 PAT of 1014cr had Other Income of Rs 437cr. Other Income in Q1/FY17 to be significantly lower. Motilal Oswal est of Other Income 326cr. Actual Other Income to be lower than MOSL est as well

We feel stock should go up.

SL you decide. WhatsApp msg circulating in mkt (ebidta 1175cr) should prove wrong

Our buy calls of yday on Maruti @4500 and Sell on DrReddy @ 3470 gvg big big profit.

 B Auto should also

Shriram Transport FinanceQ1 result today:

CNBC estimates PAT of 400 cr and Bloomberg est is 379 cr
Denofwealth estimates PAT to be 375 crores

TRIVENI GLASS LTD Q1

NP rises BY 121 percent YoY
Sales rise by 50.8 YoY
Q1 Eps 1.98

FY17Eeps Rs 9
FY18Eeps Rs 12
Sure Big multibagger in 2 years

Dr ReddyQ1 result today

Huge Miss

denofwealth estimates sales
at 2963 cr vs CNBC est 3777cr
Ebidta at 629 cr vs CNBC est  of 848 cr

PAT 420 cr vs CNBC est 456 cr

MARUTI Q1: can make new lifetime high. Highest EVER quarterly NP

Denofwealth estimates Q1 NP @ 1578cr vs 1133cr for Q4/FY16, 39 percent rise QoQ

32 percent rise YoY(1192cr)

23percent beat vs CNBC est of 1276cr

Beats est of EVERY brokerage house

Grossly Undervalued; TP Rs 40-50 in 2017

BValue Rs 42 vs Cmp Rs15

FY16 Eps Rs 3.26

FY16 CASH Eps Rs 8.44 (adding DTax, Dep to NP)

FY16 CASH Profit 49cr vs Mktcap 87cr

FY16 Sales 1235cr vs Mktcap 87cr(7%xSales)

Produces POY, PFY, Dyed Yarn and Fancy Yarns

Plant in Surat (major consumption centre)

Q1 PAT @ 8.30cr rises BY120% QoQ

Q1 PAT rises BY 74% YoY

Q1 EPS Rs 1.43

Q1 Sales 369 cr

Name : SUMEET INDUSTRIES LTD Bse, Nse

Sharp jump in profit margin as SIL has started saving Rs 1.50 cr per month by taking electricity from Open Access. Hence, remaining quarters should also be as good as Q1 

FY17Eeps Rs 6

PERatio only 2.50

(Competitor Filatex FY16 with sales of 1278 cr, EPS 8.21 for FY16 trading @ 9.50xFY16Eps has Mktcap of 250Cr)

Sumeet Mktcap 87 cr vs 250cr Mktcap of Filatex (almost same size of both)

If SIL get modest PERatio of 8, stock price can be Rs 48 (FY17Eeps)

FY17 sales can cross 1450 crores.

FY18E Sales 1650 cr(expansion under way) with Eps of Rs 8.50-9

Potential of Real Multibagger

TRIVENI GLASS LTD 502281

TGL is engaged in manufacturing of Figured/Fancy glasses for homes, offices, hotels etc, used by interior designers for beautification of buildings and homes.

FY16 Sales 60.34Cr

NP               4.85cr

Equity         12.62Cr

Eps Rs         3.20Cr

Performance of FY16 would have been much better but for extraordinary provisioning in Q4. In Q4, co's Other Expenses rose from 70 lacs to 4.33 cr( QoQ)

BREAKING NEWS:

TGL will declare Q1 results on 26th July. We estimate:

Q1 Sales 18.50Cr vs 14.71Cr 

Q1 NP 2.55Cr vs 1.13Cr (Rise of more than 100%)

TGL is slated to achieve for FY17 Sales of Rs 76-80 Cr and NP of 10.50-11.50Cr

FY17Eps should be Rs 8.50-9

MAJOR TRIGGER:

TGL has 72 acre surplus land in Allahabad. Co is selling this land and has already RECEIVED 28crores advance  payment. A

TGL HAS ALREADY FINALISED OTS WITH IDBI

And hopes to become DEBT-FREE once balance payment from land sale is received.

TGL is trading at just 2.20xFY17Eeps.

TP  Rs 50 in 6 months, Rs 100+ in 18 months

Poised for upsurge:

FY16 EPS 16.34

PERatio only 8.20

Q4FY16 Eps 5.63

BValue Rs 118

Produces Valves and other accessories for Gas Cylinders (HPCL BPCL IOC etc)

Promoter 74 percent

FY17Eeps. Rs 22

Tdg @ 6.10xFY17Eeps

Even if gets modest valuation of 10, stock price can be Rs 220

Small eq and high promoter stake may lead to still higher valuations

DHP India Ltd 531306 Bse

Triveni Glass Ltd: Should report for Q1 sales of 18 cr and NP of 2.75cr or even higher. Stock can rise

MACQUARIE ON AXIS BANK
Neutral, target `501
Big miss on earnings due to high provisions
Slippages at all time high of 5.9%, driven by slippages from watchlist accounts
Recovery environment continues to be challenging
Credit costs guidance of 125-150bps for FY17E; looks ambitious
Margin guidance - above 3.6%
Loan growth healthy, deposit growth lags

IDFC ON AXIS BANK
Neutral, target `470
Disappointing quarter, slippages have peaked
One time provision on SDRs/Punjab govt depressed profits
Mgmt maintained its guidance on slippage and credit cost for FY17
60% of watch list will slip over 2 years with front ending in 1HFY17
Forecast GNPA of 3.39% for FY17

Religare Downgrades Axis Bank - AXSB’s Q1 PAT declined by 21% YoY to Rs 15.6bn, below RCMLe. Asset quality deteriorated sharply with absolute GNPAs/NNPAs rising by ~60% QoQ driving GNPA/NNPA ratio higher to 2.5%/1.1%. Non-interest income grew by 19% YoY largely on the back of higher treasury gains of Rs 9.1bn (Rs 6.5bn in Q1FY16). Fee income grew by 11% YoY. Operating cost / total income stood at 38.4%.

Axis Bank Ltd: *Q1 nos may be worst( lowest NP) of last 8 quarters. Big Big miss*

Denofwealth est 1620 cr vs 2154cr for quarter ended March 2016. *24-25% miss*

Bloomberg est 1991cr. *19%miss*

Fresh slippage can be 3600cr

NPA can rise sharply to 2.40%+ as against 1.70% in March16 quarter

Cmp significantly higher than month low of 493.

And stock price was 465-470 when Q4 NP was 2154cr
Will stock come below 493 in August expiry?

1) ITC group co

2) Still trading at PERatio of 12

3) PERatio for FY17E Eps only 9

4) Book Value Rs 192

Name: International Travel House Ltd

TP 230-240 next week. Rs 400 in one year

Ultratrch Q1 result today
Denofwealth est Sales 6180 cr vs Bloomberg est 6480cr

Denofwealth  NP est 770cr vs Bloomberg est 740cr

Stock already near all time high. We are neutral

On Tuesday,

On tuesday, stock had touched Rs 25.90.  Now the stock has come down due to following reasons:

1.  IDBI is holding 1 million  shares and has started selling aggressively.

2. Price freeze: The day stock touched 25.90,  Bse site was showing 27.30 as weekly upper limit. However, next day, upper limit was reduced to 24.45.  And today again weekly uppper limit has again been reduced to 22.10. Absolutely bizaare. We appreciate Bse efforts in curbing unwanted speculation in stock prices. As a result, several
stocks like Tirupati and Axtel remain frozen at same price since 2 weeks. But it is completely idiotic to reduce upper level from level already achieved.

*Galada Power Bse code 504697*: You may buy for your personal portfolio as Dark Horse. We have met the mgtmnt. May take a week to prepare detailed report.
Co in biz of aluminium conductor used for power transmission( same as Apar Industries). Presently co is doing job work for Sterlite as co don't hv funds for Bank guarantee. As a result, topline is not big. However co has surplus noncore assets worth 60 crores. There are MANY corporate triggers. Co is on the cusp of take-off. Barring unforeseen circumstances, stock can be Rs 40-50 in 3-6 months maximum. There is a possibility that stock can be 150 in 24-30 months. Current mktcap is 16 crores( against Surplus noncore assets of 60crores). Stock dirt cheap. *This power ancillary poised for multibagger appreciation*

Our other recommendations Tirupati Starch and Axtel Ind already freeze at U.C. with very few sellers. We feel *Polylink Polymers* is also a good buy, considering its hi-tech product range. An engineering polymer co avlble at very very low valuations. Co has already placed orders for import of machineries for expansion. Introduction of color master batches can take co much higher. Demand from user industry ( cable, plastics) will continue to grow. Moreover how many stocks ( profit making) are available so low when markets are so high
Finally, Polylink Polymer is *debt free*. No long term borrowings

AXTEL INDUSTRIES LTD:

An Engineering co available  for peanuts

Q4 Sales 32 cr vs 21 cr in corresponding period of previous year (50% rise)

Q4 PAT 6.73 cr vs 1.63 cr in corresponding period of previous year(up 400%)

Normally, Q4 of AIL is peak quarter

FY16 Sales 67 cr vs 40 cr in FY15

FY16 PAT 4.80cr vs 7.54cr LOSS in FY15

AIL is engaged in production and marketing of processing
equipments/machineries for FOOD PROCESSING and PHARMA Industry.
Hence, has huge growth potential.

FY17E Sales 90 cr    PAT 7.50 cr

FY18E   Sales   120 cr  PAT  12 cr

Stock can be in 3 digits in next 18-24 months. However, problem is
that due to BSE Fatwa, stock price is frozen at 26.30. In short term,
price cannot rise beyond 26.30. However, investors who can hold the
stock for 12-36 months should try to buy for big big appreciation.  An
engineering company (with clientele in highest growth industry of food
and pharma) available at market cap of just 40 crores

POLYLINK POLYMERS (I) LTD:  Huge Turnaround

FY16 PAT 1.82 Cr vs  38 lacs in FY15

FY17E PAT 3.25 Cr

FY18E  PAT 5 Cr+

Products:

Engineering Polymers: For use in high growth plastics industry

Wire & Cable Compounds: For Cable Industry

Addictive Master Color Batches

Expansion Under way

TP Rs 25-30