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#BREAKING | #CoreSectorData: April eight core industries growth at 4.7% vs 4.4% in March. *April coal output at 16% vs 9.1% in March*

*April coal output figures Indicates better shape of things to come for Coal India*. In Q1 ( after bumper Q4), Coal India has again hiked coal prices

_Coal can declare NP of 7000+ Cr for Q1 and decent Interim Dividend with Q1 no's._ SHOULD DECLARE LIFETIME HIGH NP FOR FY19 (DIVIDEND Can be Rs 25 for FY19)

*So called* Analysts at CNBC continue to misguide investing community. Ashwin Gujaral is really mad when yesterday he is recommending not to buy Coal India and any PSU. He has his set prejudices and unwilling to look at things with fresh perspective. Before shooting off his mouth, he should have checked how fundamentals of Coal India are changing. Various Brokerage houses have upgraded Coal India.

Name.             TP

Macquarie.      343

CITI.                   350

MOSL.                394

*Denofwealth TP 450*

Update on PFC

Subsequent to our initial recommendation, stock had fallen to 71-72. Thereafter stock has bounced back to 80-82 levels. Main reason for underperformance of PFC is FIIs who have sold in cash segment more than 5.50 Cr shares this month. We feel that selling by FIIs is nearing its end. PFC can rise sharply in coming weeks. Hence we advise to HOLD at least upto June expiry

*FY18 NP UP BY 381%*

Suryaamba Spg Mills

                      FY18  FY17

Sales            142.    132

Dep.               4.46.   4.04

PAT                 2.35    0.48

Equity             2.93

EPS.                8.00   1.66

CASH EPS.     23.20

BValue.           88.50

Suryaamba has reported BIG rise in margins. FY18 PAT spurts to 2.35cr Vs 48 Lacs *rising BY 381%*

Cash EPS Rs 23.20

_Mktcap only 24 cr Vs Sales of 24 cr_

Stock is trading @ 3.54xFY18CashEPS

Investment in Suryaamba can give 50% appreciation

DenOfWealth again on Dot:

1) DenOfWealth had estimated that TFCI NP can be substantially lower QoQ and even lower YoY. Now TFCI has declared NP of 10.43 Vs 17 Cr YoY and 23 Cr QoQ

2) PowerGrid: Denofwealth had estimated that co can report Q4 NP lower than Bloomberg estimates and flat QoQ. Now co has declared NP of 2004 Cr Vs 2040 QoQ and 2300 Cr Bloomberg

CNBC :  Seems hand in glove with operators?

PFC : Update

On the date of result CNBC estimate 1400 Cr. When 24x7 they were shouting about 3 lac Crores stress of power sector, how they can estimate 1400 Cr for Q4? Should have estimated loss. And why don't CNBC disclose their estimates earlier like all others? Why only on day of result? So that they can adjust their estimates to play game of either side short or long.  And internal sources were expecting that *PFC will declare 800cr profit* Dice was already in place for Short.
When full year no's are declared, standard practice to compare full year and Q no's YoY. But CNBC screaming only QoQ.

THINK ABOUT THE CREDIBILITY : FEW NEWS ANCHORS TURN THE TABLE FOR Their GAIN

ANOTHER BIG PUSH:RAIN INDUSTRIES LTD

Rain Industries Ltd will be big big beneficiary of U.S.  corporate tax rate cut. Rain should derive  4000+ Cr Topline from its U.S. operations in CY18 and *with lower tax rate, Rain's PAT can jump by 140-160cr*

*200 Cr Interest Cost Savings*:Rain industries

Rain Industries has done restructuring of its high cost bonds worth  390 million Euro and 150 million Dollars.

_As against present coupon rate of 8.50% ( being retired premature), new bonds will carry coupon rate of only 3%_

*THUS RAIN WILL SAVE 5.50% ON 3700 CR DEBT WHICH TRANSLATES INTO ANNUAL SAVINGS OF AROUND 200CR FROM CY18 ONWARDS*
This savings of 200 Cr will add directly to PBT

Rain should  declare _lifetime high profit for Dec quarter_

TP Rs 475-500 Feb2018
TP Rs 650-700 in 1 year

*ABOVE 2 EVENTS ALONE SHOULD ADD Rs 8 TO ITS CY18 EPS*

BAY CAPITAL TO MAKE HOSTILE BID FOR RELIGARE : TP 150

____________________

Religare Enterprises has  seen few recent developments in last one month :

1) Promoter stepped aside to make way for one Mohnish Mukkar of ABG shipyard and Deccan chronicle  fame and new management took the over REL

2) Many employees under old management were sacked and being replaced with the people appointed by Mohnish Mukkar

3) These developments infuriated the stake holders of REL, which perceives these development is to dump the company and take out key assets such has Religare health Insurance and Religare securities

4) The stakeholders such as IDBI invoked 18%  shareholding ( pledged shares) and such holding got consolidated in three hands  through 3 bulk deals

5) Next move,  by Bay Capital founded by Punit Sarwagi holding 10%, is to move notice for EGM to eject Mr Lakshmi Kumaran and Mr Udeshi and appoint new directors. 

6) Shareholding of promoters has fallen  to 15%. *Battle Royale is expected on Religare* 

7) As per recent filings under SAST,  in last 2 months, over 35% shareholders likely to team up to eject the new appointees. 

8) Both sides has placed  its legal team for show down for check and mate. *Possibility of Open Offer which will spike share price further*

RACE TO ACQUIRE RELIGARE ENTERPRISE HOTS UP:TP 150

*India Horizon Fund and Bay Capital acquire 93lac shares*
_This is in addition to 1.79 Cr shares acquired by Resilient Growth Fund_
*Identity of industrialist for whom these shares have been bought should be known in few days*

*Housing Finance in Religare Ent Ltd*

Among various verticals of business, Religare Enterprise Ltd is also in HOUSING FINANCE (RHFL).
India based PE Institution is willing to *buy Housing Finance arm of Religare for consideration of Rs 800 crores*( valuation of HFC alone close to total mktcap of REL). However, with induction of new Board members, Housing Finance biz not being disposed off. Rather, REL likely to get large funds infusion in near future. These funds will be deployed to *expand housing finance biz in a BIG WAY*
Housing finance biz can be BIG trigger for rerating of stock

*_Buying strongly recommended as stock can be Rs 150 in 9 months_*

*SET FOR MAKEOVER:REL*

Religare Enterprise Ltd can regain its old glory as Malvinder Singh (promoter) steps down and

1) S Lakshmi Narayan *( Chairman of Shriram Transport finance)* takes over as Executive Chairman of REL. As per new Chairman, _intrinsic value of Religare brand is still strong, will strengthen financial Performance_

*TO RAISE CAPITAL IN REL AND ITS SUBSIDIARIES, STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS WITH COMPLIMENTARY BUSINESS*

2) Ms Udeshi has become independent director *(first woman Deputy Governor of RBI)*

NEW BOARD MEMBERS TO BE INDUCTED

*ABOVE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO REL BEING TAKEN OVER BY NEW PROMOTER*

NEW PROMOTER SOON: RELIGARE ENTERPRISE LTD.                        *Resilient Growth Fund, Mauritius based FII buys 10%*(Religare Bulk deal
17841994*56.70 = Rs1011641059.80)

DOW TIMES EXCLUSIVE

RELIGARE ENTERPRISE LTD:TP 100+in 4 months

REL had few months back when share price was 230 had signed agreement to sell Health Insurance biz for 1300 Crores. However as per latest info, IRDA likely to reject this proposal as IRDA don't want insurance biz to Private Equity players ( as they will sell again once valuations become more steep). This will be big blessings in disguise for REL:
1) REL Health Insurance biz *has grown 60% so far in current year YoY and new valuation more than 2000 Cr*
2) In view of listing of many Insurance companies at mind-blowing multiple, valuation of REL health insurance biz will go up further. *_REL is 2nd biggest player in India in health insurance_*

3) New Board is determined to infuse new life in every vertical and health insurance biz can grow even more

*HFC in REL*

Among various verticals of business, Religare Enterprise Ltd is also in HOUSING FINANCE (RHFL).
India based PE Institution is willing to *buy Housing Finance arm of Religare for consideration of Rs 800 crores*( valuation of HFC alone close to total mktcap of REL).

*_Buying strongly recommended as stock can be Rs 100 in 4 months_*

*SET FOR MAKEOVER:REL*

Religare Enterprise Ltd can regain its old glory as Malvinder Singh (promoter) steps down and

1) S Lakshmi Narayan *( Chairman of Shriram Transport finance)* takes over as Executive Chairman of REL. As per new Chairman, _intrinsic value of Religare brand is still strong, will strengthen financial Performance_

*TO RAISE CAPITAL IN REL AND ITS SUBSIDIARIES, STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS WITH COMPLIMENTARY BUSINESS*

2) Ms Udeshi has become independent director *(first woman Deputy Governor of RBI)*

NEW BOARD MEMBERS TO BE INDUCTED

*ABOVE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO REL BEING TAKEN OVER BY FOREIGN PE*

RELIGARE ENTERPRISE LTD

REL had signed agreement with True North ( formerly Value India Fund) to sell its Health Insurance business (RHI) for 1300 Crores. When this agreement was done, stock was trading at 230-240.

REL has several other assets. Again valuation of these assets MUCH MORE than its mktcap

TANFAC: FLOATING STOCK

94% of equity is concentrated in hands of top 25 shareholders. Hence, for practical purposes, floating stock is very low

_This Speciality Chemical co of Birla Group is MOST UNDERVALUED_

TP 450-500 in 2-3 years

*Cmp only 21% of 52 week High:Religare Enterprise Ltd*

Daily traded volumes have touched 1.20-1.30 crore shares with delivery touching 5 million shares. Lenders had invoked pledge of 5+crore shares. And same being sold and hence, such high volumes. And entire selling being absorbed by knowledgeable circles.
_Once selling by lenders finishes, volumes can dry and stock will go up and up_

*SOME BIG ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT LARGE FUNDS INFUSION POSSIBLE IN NEXT FEW WEEKS*

*TO RAISE 12000 CR: PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK* TP 250

MD Sunil Mehta has stated that country's second largest state run lender PNB is looking to _raise 12000 Crores selling real estate including its headquarters, dilute it's stake in PNB Housing Finance and exit mutual fund business_

Mehta said bank has received permission to sell its 20% stake in PNB Asset Management while reducing its stake in PNB Housing Finance *by 9% from current 39%*. Mehta also said that bank has started process of selling various real estate assets

*AVAILABLE AT 1XBOOK VALUE MOTILAL OSWAL HAS RAISED TP FROM 184 TO 250*

With stronger Balance Sheet, PNB is expected to get large amount from recapitalisation scheme

Best buy in PSU banks

*HUGE TRIGGER FOR POWERGRID: Rly to Electrify 30000 km*

Indian Railways has decided to Electrify 30000 km track @ 8000 km each year at 35000 crore capex.

PowerGrid with existing network of *140000 km of transmission lines will be  main contender and LARGEST recipient of Rly order*. PowerGrid had already secured trial tender for 800 km earlier.

*CLSA On Power Grid*

_Best is yet to come_

Raise EPS by 1-2%    

  *Buy with TP 260*

Pipeline of $20bn is likely to capitalise by FY21

BUY PGRID of India ; 🎯 *TP 252 : Edelweiss*
Edelweiss is bullish on Power Grid Corporation has recommended BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 252 in research report

Denofwealth: PowerGrid is crown jewel of PSUs having finest strongest mgtmnt with vision. *Largest transmission co in the world*
CLSA and Edelweiss TP without potential of Rly orders

*PowerGrid must for every portfolio. Can be 3x in 3 years*

*WHY SO BULLISH on Panchmahal Steel*

In our earlier notes, Denofwealth has given steep TP. Reasons:

1) Present capacity utilisation just 30% which can be 50% next year

2) Production capacity 72000 tonnes with 1.50 lac ton melting shop. It gives fair value of Rs 400/share

3) 10 acres of surplus land ( mkt value 100cr+) can be used for big expansion of capacity in 2020

4) BIG CORPORATE TRIGGER: ABC Bearing-Timken type deal in PSL. PSL promoter *WILL* exit after 12-15 months in favour of *oldest steel giant* and stock will be rerated.

_Not for traders as there can be hiccups of profit booking_

_Investors with 2 year patience can reap rich harvest_

TP 300 in 2 years, barring unforeseen circumstances

P.S.: PSL in specialised technical steel making Rods/Wires, not commodity steel, benefits emerging from GST

SUZLON Q2: WORSE BEYOND ALL BELIEF

Revenues *down 56.5%* at  Rs 1193 cr vs Rs 2742 cr
Net profit down 72% at  Rs 68 cr vs Rs 243.75 cr
EBITDA down 81% at  Rs 107 cr vs Rs 559 cr

Margins at *9% vs 20.4%*

*Actual PBT loss of 374 cr. Vs profit of 251 cr yoy. Exceptional gain of 454 cr converts LOSS in PAT*

_Working capital days up to 94 days (highest is 5 years - big negative)_

*Working capital debt in Q2 at 3244 cr vs 2000 cr in March 17*

Massive FCCBs coversion in the pipeline  which will further expand already bloated equity

*EBITDA MARGINS NEGATIVE*

Company in its presentation did not mention Q2 details

FCCB conversion price is 15.46 per share. Management trying to keep shares above 15.5 so that all pending 67 crore shares under FCCBs can get converted. If stock goes below Rs15 stock will see  vertical fall

FUNDAMENTALLY HUGELY OVERPRICED. STAY SHORT.

*ABOVE & BEYOND*

Coal India Ltd Q2

Denofwealth had initially estimated Q2 PAT at 450 Crores Vs Bloomberg est of 2031 Cr. Subsequently denofwealth tweeted that PAT can be as low as 360 Crores AND co has declared 369 Crores PAT
We feel that in no part of the world, employee cost eat up 50% of mining co revenue EXCEPT Coal India. Coal has provided only 2300 Cr for wage revision. It means 4300 Cr remains to be provided in H2.
Best part is that in investor presentation, Coal has compared *H1 no's YoY and not mentioning about extremely bad Q2 no's*
Mgtmnt may make lofty promises to sustain share price but they never mentioned in Q1 presentation that Q2 will be bad

BAD DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN:

SUZLON Q2

Suzlon is set to report extremely bad nos with LOSS at Operating level ( after profit of many quarters)

As per Denofwealth estimates, Suzlon can report *LOSS of 12-15 Crores at Ebidta level Vs Bloomberg estimate of PROFIT 450cr Ebidta level Vs Ebidta profit of 550 Cr YoY*

Topline should also miss by 7-8% Vs Bloomberg estimate

_Net Loss can be 250+ Crores unless mgtmnt does one off write back_

With Wind Power tariff hitting rock bottom, near term future of Suzlon should have losses only as entire Wind Power industry is indeed under severe stress( look at Inox wind)

Stock can fall to 13-14 levels

A GOOD SELL OPPORTUNITY

WEAK Q2:Coal India

Coal India is set to report weak financials for Q2.
As per Denofwealth estimates, *PAT can be lower/less than 450cr Vs Bloomberg estimate of 2031 Crores*

_There is no one-time write-off_

Sharp decline in PAT due to wage revision ( annual additional burden of 5600 Crores). *Higher wages is permanent, of recurring nature*. Hence even coming quarter may not see BIG rebound in profits.

Moreover, Q2 can witness miss of 800 Cr in
Topline also Vs Bloomberg estimate

Another Dampener: OFS in pipeline as Govt will offload 1O%. *SBI Capital Market and ICICI Securities recently met Department of Disinvestment, Retail investors may get 2% discount*

Finally, stock had been favourite of mutual funds etc due to high dividend in past. However with lower profits, dividend in current year can be lowered or co will have to dig into reserves for Decent dividend

Stock can see lower levels