BAY CAPITAL TO MAKE HOSTILE BID FOR RELIGARE : TP 150

____________________

Religare Enterprises has  seen few recent developments in last one month :

1) Promoter stepped aside to make way for one Mohnish Mukkar of ABG shipyard and Deccan chronicle  fame and new management took the over REL

2) Many employees under old management were sacked and being replaced with the people appointed by Mohnish Mukkar

3) These developments infuriated the stake holders of REL, which perceives these development is to dump the company and take out key assets such has Religare health Insurance and Religare securities

4) The stakeholders such as IDBI invoked 18%  shareholding ( pledged shares) and such holding got consolidated in three hands  through 3 bulk deals

5) Next move,  by Bay Capital founded by Punit Sarwagi holding 10%, is to move notice for EGM to eject Mr Lakshmi Kumaran and Mr Udeshi and appoint new directors. 

6) Shareholding of promoters has fallen  to 15%. *Battle Royale is expected on Religare* 

7) As per recent filings under SAST,  in last 2 months, over 35% shareholders likely to team up to eject the new appointees. 

8) Both sides has placed  its legal team for show down for check and mate. *Possibility of Open Offer which will spike share price further*

RACE TO ACQUIRE RELIGARE ENTERPRISE HOTS UP:TP 150

*India Horizon Fund and Bay Capital acquire 93lac shares*
_This is in addition to 1.79 Cr shares acquired by Resilient Growth Fund_
*Identity of industrialist for whom these shares have been bought should be known in few days*

*Housing Finance in Religare Ent Ltd*

Among various verticals of business, Religare Enterprise Ltd is also in HOUSING FINANCE (RHFL).
India based PE Institution is willing to *buy Housing Finance arm of Religare for consideration of Rs 800 crores*( valuation of HFC alone close to total mktcap of REL). However, with induction of new Board members, Housing Finance biz not being disposed off. Rather, REL likely to get large funds infusion in near future. These funds will be deployed to *expand housing finance biz in a BIG WAY*
Housing finance biz can be BIG trigger for rerating of stock

*_Buying strongly recommended as stock can be Rs 150 in 9 months_*

*SET FOR MAKEOVER:REL*

Religare Enterprise Ltd can regain its old glory as Malvinder Singh (promoter) steps down and

1) S Lakshmi Narayan *( Chairman of Shriram Transport finance)* takes over as Executive Chairman of REL. As per new Chairman, _intrinsic value of Religare brand is still strong, will strengthen financial Performance_

*TO RAISE CAPITAL IN REL AND ITS SUBSIDIARIES, STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS WITH COMPLIMENTARY BUSINESS*

2) Ms Udeshi has become independent director *(first woman Deputy Governor of RBI)*

NEW BOARD MEMBERS TO BE INDUCTED

*ABOVE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO REL BEING TAKEN OVER BY NEW PROMOTER*

NEW PROMOTER SOON: RELIGARE ENTERPRISE LTD.                        *Resilient Growth Fund, Mauritius based FII buys 10%*(Religare Bulk deal
17841994*56.70 = Rs1011641059.80)

DOW TIMES EXCLUSIVE

RELIGARE ENTERPRISE LTD:TP 100+in 4 months

REL had few months back when share price was 230 had signed agreement to sell Health Insurance biz for 1300 Crores. However as per latest info, IRDA likely to reject this proposal as IRDA don't want insurance biz to Private Equity players ( as they will sell again once valuations become more steep). This will be big blessings in disguise for REL:
1) REL Health Insurance biz *has grown 60% so far in current year YoY and new valuation more than 2000 Cr*
2) In view of listing of many Insurance companies at mind-blowing multiple, valuation of REL health insurance biz will go up further. *_REL is 2nd biggest player in India in health insurance_*

3) New Board is determined to infuse new life in every vertical and health insurance biz can grow even more

*HFC in REL*

Among various verticals of business, Religare Enterprise Ltd is also in HOUSING FINANCE (RHFL).
India based PE Institution is willing to *buy Housing Finance arm of Religare for consideration of Rs 800 crores*( valuation of HFC alone close to total mktcap of REL).

*_Buying strongly recommended as stock can be Rs 100 in 4 months_*

*SET FOR MAKEOVER:REL*

Religare Enterprise Ltd can regain its old glory as Malvinder Singh (promoter) steps down and

1) S Lakshmi Narayan *( Chairman of Shriram Transport finance)* takes over as Executive Chairman of REL. As per new Chairman, _intrinsic value of Religare brand is still strong, will strengthen financial Performance_

*TO RAISE CAPITAL IN REL AND ITS SUBSIDIARIES, STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS WITH COMPLIMENTARY BUSINESS*

2) Ms Udeshi has become independent director *(first woman Deputy Governor of RBI)*

NEW BOARD MEMBERS TO BE INDUCTED

*ABOVE DEVELOPMENTS POINT TO REL BEING TAKEN OVER BY FOREIGN PE*

RELIGARE ENTERPRISE LTD

REL had signed agreement with True North ( formerly Value India Fund) to sell its Health Insurance business (RHI) for 1300 Crores. When this agreement was done, stock was trading at 230-240.

REL has several other assets. Again valuation of these assets MUCH MORE than its mktcap

TANFAC: FLOATING STOCK

94% of equity is concentrated in hands of top 25 shareholders. Hence, for practical purposes, floating stock is very low

_This Speciality Chemical co of Birla Group is MOST UNDERVALUED_

TP 450-500 in 2-3 years

*Cmp only 21% of 52 week High:Religare Enterprise Ltd*

Daily traded volumes have touched 1.20-1.30 crore shares with delivery touching 5 million shares. Lenders had invoked pledge of 5+crore shares. And same being sold and hence, such high volumes. And entire selling being absorbed by knowledgeable circles.
_Once selling by lenders finishes, volumes can dry and stock will go up and up_

*SOME BIG ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT LARGE FUNDS INFUSION POSSIBLE IN NEXT FEW WEEKS*

*TO RAISE 12000 CR: PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK* TP 250

MD Sunil Mehta has stated that country's second largest state run lender PNB is looking to _raise 12000 Crores selling real estate including its headquarters, dilute it's stake in PNB Housing Finance and exit mutual fund business_

Mehta said bank has received permission to sell its 20% stake in PNB Asset Management while reducing its stake in PNB Housing Finance *by 9% from current 39%*. Mehta also said that bank has started process of selling various real estate assets

*AVAILABLE AT 1XBOOK VALUE MOTILAL OSWAL HAS RAISED TP FROM 184 TO 250*

With stronger Balance Sheet, PNB is expected to get large amount from recapitalisation scheme

Best buy in PSU banks

*HUGE TRIGGER FOR POWERGRID: Rly to Electrify 30000 km*

Indian Railways has decided to Electrify 30000 km track @ 8000 km each year at 35000 crore capex.

PowerGrid with existing network of *140000 km of transmission lines will be  main contender and LARGEST recipient of Rly order*. PowerGrid had already secured trial tender for 800 km earlier.

*CLSA On Power Grid*

_Best is yet to come_

Raise EPS by 1-2%    

  *Buy with TP 260*

Pipeline of $20bn is likely to capitalise by FY21

BUY PGRID of India ; 🎯 *TP 252 : Edelweiss*
Edelweiss is bullish on Power Grid Corporation has recommended BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 252 in research report

Denofwealth: PowerGrid is crown jewel of PSUs having finest strongest mgtmnt with vision. *Largest transmission co in the world*
CLSA and Edelweiss TP without potential of Rly orders

*PowerGrid must for every portfolio. Can be 3x in 3 years*

*WHY SO BULLISH on Panchmahal Steel*

In our earlier notes, Denofwealth has given steep TP. Reasons:

1) Present capacity utilisation just 30% which can be 50% next year

2) Production capacity 72000 tonnes with 1.50 lac ton melting shop. It gives fair value of Rs 400/share

3) 10 acres of surplus land ( mkt value 100cr+) can be used for big expansion of capacity in 2020

4) BIG CORPORATE TRIGGER: ABC Bearing-Timken type deal in PSL. PSL promoter *WILL* exit after 12-15 months in favour of *oldest steel giant* and stock will be rerated.

_Not for traders as there can be hiccups of profit booking_

_Investors with 2 year patience can reap rich harvest_

TP 300 in 2 years, barring unforeseen circumstances

P.S.: PSL in specialised technical steel making Rods/Wires, not commodity steel, benefits emerging from GST

SUZLON Q2: WORSE BEYOND ALL BELIEF

Revenues *down 56.5%* at  Rs 1193 cr vs Rs 2742 cr
Net profit down 72% at  Rs 68 cr vs Rs 243.75 cr
EBITDA down 81% at  Rs 107 cr vs Rs 559 cr

Margins at *9% vs 20.4%*

*Actual PBT loss of 374 cr. Vs profit of 251 cr yoy. Exceptional gain of 454 cr converts LOSS in PAT*

_Working capital days up to 94 days (highest is 5 years - big negative)_

*Working capital debt in Q2 at 3244 cr vs 2000 cr in March 17*

Massive FCCBs coversion in the pipeline  which will further expand already bloated equity

*EBITDA MARGINS NEGATIVE*

Company in its presentation did not mention Q2 details

FCCB conversion price is 15.46 per share. Management trying to keep shares above 15.5 so that all pending 67 crore shares under FCCBs can get converted. If stock goes below Rs15 stock will see  vertical fall

FUNDAMENTALLY HUGELY OVERPRICED. STAY SHORT.

*ABOVE & BEYOND*

Coal India Ltd Q2

Denofwealth had initially estimated Q2 PAT at 450 Crores Vs Bloomberg est of 2031 Cr. Subsequently denofwealth tweeted that PAT can be as low as 360 Crores AND co has declared 369 Crores PAT
We feel that in no part of the world, employee cost eat up 50% of mining co revenue EXCEPT Coal India. Coal has provided only 2300 Cr for wage revision. It means 4300 Cr remains to be provided in H2.
Best part is that in investor presentation, Coal has compared *H1 no's YoY and not mentioning about extremely bad Q2 no's*
Mgtmnt may make lofty promises to sustain share price but they never mentioned in Q1 presentation that Q2 will be bad

BAD DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN:

SUZLON Q2

Suzlon is set to report extremely bad nos with LOSS at Operating level ( after profit of many quarters)

As per Denofwealth estimates, Suzlon can report *LOSS of 12-15 Crores at Ebidta level Vs Bloomberg estimate of PROFIT 450cr Ebidta level Vs Ebidta profit of 550 Cr YoY*

Topline should also miss by 7-8% Vs Bloomberg estimate

_Net Loss can be 250+ Crores unless mgtmnt does one off write back_

With Wind Power tariff hitting rock bottom, near term future of Suzlon should have losses only as entire Wind Power industry is indeed under severe stress( look at Inox wind)

Stock can fall to 13-14 levels

A GOOD SELL OPPORTUNITY

WEAK Q2:Coal India

Coal India is set to report weak financials for Q2.
As per Denofwealth estimates, *PAT can be lower/less than 450cr Vs Bloomberg estimate of 2031 Crores*

_There is no one-time write-off_

Sharp decline in PAT due to wage revision ( annual additional burden of 5600 Crores). *Higher wages is permanent, of recurring nature*. Hence even coming quarter may not see BIG rebound in profits.

Moreover, Q2 can witness miss of 800 Cr in
Topline also Vs Bloomberg estimate

Another Dampener: OFS in pipeline as Govt will offload 1O%. *SBI Capital Market and ICICI Securities recently met Department of Disinvestment, Retail investors may get 2% discount*

Finally, stock had been favourite of mutual funds etc due to high dividend in past. However with lower profits, dividend in current year can be lowered or co will have to dig into reserves for Decent dividend

Stock can see lower levels

Religare Enterprise: Update

Lenders had invoked pledge of promoter shares (25%). And had been selling aggressively in open market which was dragging down the share price.
As per our analysis, selling by lenders getting over. Stock has been accumulated by strong hands as major positive developments should unfold in coming weeks.
We are fairly confident that stock can be in 3 digits in few months

ADD

Denofwealth Exclusive:

*Mktcap 820cr: Expected Cash Inflow 1300cr*

RELIGARE ENTERPRISE LTD

REL has signed agreement with True North ( formerly Value India Fund) to sell its Health Insurance business (RHI) for 1300 Crores. When this agreement was done, stock was trading at 230-240.

As per our reliable sources, *IRDA approval may come as early as next week*

Current mktcap of REL is just 820 Cr whereas co will get 1300 Cr from True North.
Stock is lying low due to selling of pledged shared by banks. Huge volumes as stock being accumulated by knowledgeable sources

Stock should cross 70-75 in next 2 months or so

REL has several other assets. Again valuation of these assets MUCH? MORE than its mktcap

_Buying strongly recommended as stock can cross 100 in 3-6 months_

FABULOUS TAX FREE GAIN:POWER FINANCE

PFC has declared interim dividend of Rs 6 per share. At cmp, dividend yield is *more than 4.50%*
Record date is 13th and stock will become EX-Dividend on 9th November
Hence, investors can buy big qty of PFC which is giving big TAX FREE income in few days

*PFC: Highlights*

PFC to announce Q2 result today during mkt hours:

1) Denofwealth estimates PAT to beat street estimates. In fact *PAT Q2 WILL be higher Vs CNBC estimate of 1770cr, HIGHER YoY as well QoQ*

2) LOAN BOOK: Can be 2.18 lac Crores Vs 1.85 lac Crores YoY

3) PFC on 15th July has already upgraded NPAs worth 11000 Crores.

4) ASSET QUALITY:Hence, Gnpa and Nnpa bound to decline

5) *BOOK VALUE 143*

6) _Cost to Income Ratio just 1.75%_

7) Business per Employee: Around 500cr

8) Profit per Employee: Around 15 crore

9) PUBLIC SECTOR accounts for 83-85% of Loan portfolio. Hence *80% of NPAs likely to be standard by FY19*

10) DIVIDEND YIELD: At cmp, tax free *Dividend yield for FY18 can be 7-8%*

BEST BUY IN NBFC SPACE

Can be 155 November end

*KOTAK on POWERGRID: BUY*                 

Powergrid’s earnings were better than our estimates- company reported revenues of Rs72.5bn (16% yoy, 1% qoq), EBITDA of Rs64.7bn (16% yoy, 4% qoq) and net income of Rs20.6bn (10% yoy, 4% qoq) against our estimates of Rs71.8bn, Rs62bn and Rs 19.8bn respectively. Powergrid reported a strong 10% yoy growth in net income at Rs20.6 bn.

Asset capitalization for the quarter remained strong at Rs100 bn (+50% yoy, +186% qoq) and capex of Rs56.5 bn (+7% yoy, -10% qoq), that likely took gross block to Rs1.9 tn and reduces CWIP to Rs433 bn. Investment approvals of Rs21.3 bn were given during the quarter.

Asset capitalisation is double of our expectation and more than 2.5X of last qtr (36bn) and gives strong visibility to earnings,  which remains on strong growth track.
We currently have BUY rating on the stock

*Denofwealth: PowerGrid can be 450-500 in 2 years. World's largest power transmission utility co but Most Undervalued*

Denofwealth Exclusive:

*Mktcap 820cr: Expected Cash Inflow 1300cr*

RELIGARE ENTERPRISE LTD

REL has signed agreement with True North ( formerly Value India Fund) to sell its Health Insurance business (RHI) for 1300 Crores. When this agreement was done, stock was trading at 230-240.

As per our reliable sources, *IRDA approval may come as early as next week*

Current mktcap of REL is just 820 Cr whereas co will get 1300 Cr from True North.
Stock is lying low due to selling of pledged shared by banks. Huge volumes as stock being accumulated by knowledgeable sources

Stock should cross 70-75 in next 2 months or so

REL has several other assets. Again valuation of these assets MUCH? MORE than its mktcap

_Buying strongly recommended as stock can cross 100 in 3-6 months_

Q2: PowerGrid Corpn

POWERGRID is set to announce to announce BUMPER no's for Q2
As per Denofwealth est, POWERGRID can declare PAT of *2155 Cr Vs 1801 Cr , spurt of 19+% YoY*

With target to commission assets worth 35000 Cr in current year, co will report mind-blowing no's for FY19
Co is on course to commission *projects worth 1.24 lac Crores in 4 years*

PowerGrid has most bright future considering proposed integration of Wind energy 30000 MW, Solar 20000 MW and 7000 MW
Investors (not traders) can make huge gains either by taking delivery and roll over in FnO for few months
_TP 300+ in 12 months_

PowerGrid: *Strong Buy*

PowerGrid is most Undervalued PSU/Utility. Co is set report HIGHEST EVER quarterly PAT for Q2
PowerGrid can surpass it's 52 week high of Rs 227 for November expiry

For investors with patience, stock can go up 50% in 15 months. Safe buy

Q2 RESULT TODAY

Important Update:

PANCHMAHAL STEEL LTD:

PSL has *SURPLUS* land. _Conservative market value of same is estimated to be MORE than co's mktcap_

Presently plant operating at *just 30% capacity*. With higher demand post GST, PSL targeting to enhance it's sales by 50% next year, PSL can report EPS of 12.

Recently got ISO18001 which will enable exports to Europe

*Most undervalued specialty steel stock TP 150* by  2018-end.

We expect *big corporate action* in 2018. As and when it happens, then PSL will be strongly rerated, will come on radar of brokerage houses and  CAN BE 300+ in 2-3 years from now

Stock recommended for genuine investors with patience and not for traders

ONGC ( 190) - STILL A BUY

*Extremely Bullish Above 194: TP 210 coming soon*

Now,Closed Abv 200 Dma.
Stoploss 183 On Cl Basis.

*Target 199--212-229

Denofwealth Technicals

*33000 CR SURGE IN LOAN BOOK*

POWER FINANCE CORPN

As per Denofwealth reliable estimates, Loan Book of PFC as on 30th September 2017 stands at *whopping 2.19 lac Crores Vs 1.86 lac Cr YoY*

Further, _PFC can raise 1 billion dollars via Masala Bonds (3.75-4% coupon rate)_. Roadshow for same can begin very soon. Will help PFC to raise NIM

This Navratan PSU most Undervalued

*85000 Ton Paper+216Key Hotel*

_MAGNUM VENTURES LTD_: Likely MULTIBAGGER

                  Q1FY18

Sales.              65

Depreciation 3.53

NP.                   0.24

Equity.           37.60

Paper division contributed 54 Cr to Sales                            

MVL doesn't have good track record. However stock is worth buying at cmp as Post GST, promoters will be forced to be investor friendly:
1) MVL has 216 key hotel on outskirts of Delhi known as COUNTRY INN. In hotel industry, it was not uncommon to take CASH payment for banquet functions. It was double whammy for hotel bottom line as F&B purchase in co a/c but revenue nil. Now, it has become nearly impossible. Hence, hotel division of MVL should stop incurring losses

2) Paper Division: Paper industry too had significant cash sales.  Now paper division 85000 tonnes of MVL can have hugely improved margins

3) Paper plant has 10acres land, of which only 5acres is occupied. On outskirts of Delhi

4) Finally, *once transfer of debt to ARC and 50% haircut* is formally announced by co, stock will stand RERATED

Current mktcap is half of 2017 high and tiny by any yardstick. This microcap has favourable Risk-to-Reward ratio.

We will not be surprised if MVL quotes in 3 digits in 2019(Investors may be reminded that we had advised buy on Star Paper at Rs 7 in 2014)

BIGGEST ASSET UPGRADE IN NBFC INDUSTRY 

   *47% NPAs become Standard*

_POWER FINANCE CORP_

~I am happy to inform you that out of 23309 crore NPAs about 11000 crore have already got upgrade w.e.f. 15th July~

Above is excerpt from speech of Chairman at recent AGM

With 47% NPA assets becoming standard in Q2, Asset quality of PFC has made huge improvement.

_Gnpa Nnpa in Q2 no's should be substantially lower and Analysts would upgrade PFC_

PFC is an excellent buy and most Undervalued NBFC as it is still much below its 2017 high of 170

*BRENT CRUDE TOPS $60 FIRST TIME SINCE 2015*

ONGC biggest beneficiary. Stock poised to scale new 52week High

BREAKING NEWS

*Q2 ONGC*

As per DOW TIMES estimates, ONGC can deliver outstanding no's:

1) Q2 PAT can *spurt 20% YoY* as PAT can be 5100+ Crores Vs 4232 Crores

2) *QoQ jump can be 30%* as PAT for Q1 was 3884 Cr Vs DOW TIMES estimate of 5100+ Cr for Q2
In view of firm outlook for crude prices, mgtmnt commentary should be positive

TP 200+ in near term

KSCL:FABULOUS Q2

NP 20.9CR VS 7.7CR

*MARGINS 21.2% VS 5%*

Q3 despite lean season will be still better

Hope stock surpasses recent high of 705 in 8-10 weeks

Q2 TATA METALLIC today

As per DOW TIMES estimates, Tata Metallic can report PAT of 35-36 Crores Vs Standalone NP of 11 Crores and Consolidated PAT of 22cr YoY

*Stock can touch 800*

Electrosteel Steels Ltd:Update

BSE had sought clarification from Insolvency Resolution Professional if SREI in talks/ negotiation to acquire ESL. ESL has replied to BSE that bids have been invited and EOI have been received from various applicants.

Naturally ESL at this stage can't reveal name of potential bidders. But investors mistook at denial and selling pressure

Our source fairly confident that Dalmia Bharat promoter is frontrunner to acquire ESL

*BUY MORE*

*Jindal Group Co: Mktcap 47cr*

_CHEAPEST METAL STOCK_

*HISAR METAL IND LTD*

Promoted by Jindal Family/Jindal Metal, Hisar Metal produces High Precision, Ultra Thin Stainless Steel Strips. Co has its own power plant for captive use and regular supply

*In last 3 months, prices of Stainless Steel strips have spurted 25%*. Hence the recommendation as co can report much higher profits in future.

Financial Performance:

               Q1FY18 Q1FY17

Sales.        53.      42

PBT.          1.49.   0.70

PAT.           1.05.   0.42

Equity.        5.40.   3.60

Hisar Metal had issued 1:2 Bonus shares last year

_Q1 NP has already spurted by 150%_

               FY18E. FY19E

Sales.     225.     240

PAT.        5.50.    6.50

EPS.        10.       12

1) Jindal Family co trading at 8.7xFY18EEPS and 7xFY19EEPS

2) Mktcap 0.25xSales

3) Ultra Thin SS strips is High Technology High Precision business

4) METAL INDUSTRY DOING WELL

5) Promoter equity free from encumbrances

6) Dividend paying and Bonus last year

Majority of investors not even aware of this listed entity, hence such low valuation

Hisar Metal is definitely Undervalued.

STOCK PRICE CAN DOUBLE IN 15 MONTHS

*Dhanlaxmi bank* vs CSB

*WHEN PSB WITH HUGE LOSSES AND ABSURD NPA QUOTING SO HIGH, DHANLAXMI WITH IMPROVING FINANCIALS IS CHEAPEST BANKING STOCK*
Recently there is news that Catholic Syrian Bank ( not listed) may be acquired by a foreign co  @ 180-200 per share.

FY17 Financials in terms of NPA and NP of CSB are lower/weaker compared to Dhanlaxmi bank.

Using this yardstick of Valuations, DBL going dirt cheap and _can definitely be in 3 digits in 2018-end_
DBL Nnpa already down to 2.58%. We estimate that *Nnpa for FY18 may be as low as 1.50%*

DBL AMONGST OUR TOP PICKS. Q2 NOs *(Q2 NP can be 20cr)* WILL RERATE DBL

KSCL: Important Update

Templeton and Oppenheimer ( amongst biggest global funds) have started buying KSCL

Further, Q2 *NP can rise 100% YoY*

Stock can cross 600 very very soon

Down from recent high of 705 ( despite bumper no's) KSCL can witness big action in coming days

ADD

Update: Electrosteel Steels Ltd

Stock is Rs 10 FV ( whereas stock like Bhushan Steel is Rs 2 FV)

Dalmia Bharat is amongst most profitable/efficient group. If Dalmia Bharat promoter succeeds in getting ESL, bright chances of co turning around. *Under new leadership of Dalmia Bharat promoter,  ESL can be 4x in 15-18 months*

ESL plant is most modern and needs funds to operate at optimum capacity

*Credit Suisse on Indiabulls Housing Finance*

• *Maintain Outperform; Hiked price target to Rs 1,600 from Rs 1,400*
• Q2 results: Industry leading growth continues
• Indiabulls’ continues to offer value in light of strong growth in safe asset class segment

*Citi on Havells India*

• *Maintain  price target of Rs 575*
• Havells' core and Lloyd Consumer's growth were sluggish despite positive benefits of GST restocking and festive season
• Havells remains a quality business but demand environment remains sluggish and competitive intensity remains high
• Expect EPS to grow at CAGR of 20 percent over FY17-19

DoW Vs Street estimate

*Q2 Havells today*

Havells can report big beat . DOW TIMES estimates Q2 PAT to be *177cr Vs CNBC est of 143 Vs 121 Cr QoQ Vs 145cr YoY*

Fundamentally, stock poised to cross 600

TECHNICAL VIEW:

*Havells India* - Looks Good For A Target Of 575--578.

Once Breaks Tgt Extends Upto 610--630.

Stoploss 541 On Closing Basis.

*To be 2x:Electrosteel Steels Ltd*

As per our sources, *PROMOTER OF DALMIA BHARAT LTD ( CMP 2700, FV 2) MAY WREST CONTROLLING STAKE IN ESL AT NCLT HEARING*

Although existing promoter likely to retain his stake and Edelweiss may do funding of 1100cr for revival

_Minimum 2x because mgtmnt change can't be at discount. MINIMUM AT PAR_

Capacity 2.5 million tonnes with Ore mines

Good P/V action seen in Electrosteel Steel. The stock is giving early signs of an impending up-breakout. Can't rule out the stock going to double figures in the short term. Use corrections to load-up on the stock in your portfolio.

By Sh G R Chari

DOW TIMES: As per our reliable source, promoter of South based Cement/Sugar giant frontrunner to acquire mgtmnt control at NCLT@11-12.

*ESL can be in Double digits in few weeks*

Credit Suisse on Axis Bank

Cut TP to Rs 485 from Rs 506

Axis reported extremely weak Q2 results

Expects equity dilution in coming quarters with total stress portfolio at 10% and CET-1 <11%

EPS estimates for FY18 cut by 25% on higher provisions 

Credit Suisse on Axis Bank

Cut TP to Rs 485 from Rs 506

Axis reported extremely weak Q2 results

Expects equity dilution in coming quarters with total stress portfolio at 10% and CET-1 <11%

EPS estimates for FY18 cut by 25% on higher provisions 

WIPRO Q2:
DOW TIMES estimates PAT of 2200 Cr Vs Bloomberg est of 2072 cr

*SELL: Axis Bank*

Q2 nos today:DISASTER

Slippages over 7500 cr

(RComm Slipped with 3 other accounts. 30% slippage from Watchlist) and PAT at 480cr (Exp 1250 crore Bloomberg)

_GNPA 5.8% vs 5.08% QoQ_. Overall Quite Weak. Stock should be below 490

STBT as result should be after mkt

Electrosteel Steels Ltd:  

Capacity 2.5 million tonnes with Ore mines

Good P/V action seen in Electrosteel Steel. The stock is giving early signs of an impending up-breakout. Can't rule out the stock going to double figures in the short term. Use corrections to load-up on the stock in your portfolio.

By Sh G R Chari

DOW TIMES: As per our reliable source, promoter of South based Cement/Sugar giant frontrunner to acquire mgtmnt control at NCLT@11-12.

*ESL can be in Double digits in few weeks*

JP Power Ventures: 

Chart reflects strong uptrend. May hit new highs soon. Just lap it up.

By Sh G R Chari

CLARIS LIFE:TP 375-380

Current market cap of the company is 2000 crores and they received 4250 crores from Baxter for sale of the injectibles business. After considering tax payment, transaction cost and other expenses, Claris has 2077 Cr CASH. It works out to Rs 381 per share.

*Now,  promoter will delist Claris which means entire qty offered will be accepted*

They will announce delisting in next 1-2 weeks. No dividend due to taxation issue. BUY as 8% UPSIDE looks assured

*Highlights of G Vijay Kumar, CFO of Kaveri Seeds in an interview with ET Now*

1)  Expect non-cotton biz to be 50% to 60% of total business in 3-5 years

2)  Price corrections will not have much impact as the company is gaining in many markets and diversifying into non-cotton crops. 

3)   *Second quarter also looks better than compared to last year at 10% to 15%,* we will be better in *top line and at 20% to 25%*, better in bottom line in the second quarter for the current year as well.

4)  Price correction will not be much impact because *we are gaining in many markets and also we are good in many other crops*. Overall acreage will be there and we will compensate with maize sales or paddy sales or other sales.

5)  Three to four years down the line, we want to see that *non-cotton business making for more than 50% to 60%*. That way we would have penetrated the entire pan-India market. In the past, we have been south centric in some parts of Maharashtra. Now, *we have a pan-Indian presence. We are in West Bengal, UP, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Oddisha, Bihar among others*.

6) This year we have seen lot of growth in paddy while maize almost stagnated in first quarter but in July-August, it has picked up. Hopefully, during rabi crop, maize will go up. Overall, we are seeing that field crops, non-cotton crops will grow 20% to 25% for us.

7)  Last year only, *we entered into the vegetable seeds and we done a modest business. This year we are expecting almost 200% growth in the vegetable seed segment. We have almost 50 products yet to launch in next couple of years including this year, next two years.*

8)  We want to grow next three to four years. There is more focus on vegetable seed segment. The Indian vegetable market seed market is also growing very fast 20% year on year. We want to capture that market share and look for a good growth in the vegetable seed market.

9) For FY18, the expected revenue from the non-cotton category is around 40 plus at a margin of 5% to 6,% better than the cotton category.

10)  *We are releasing every season three to four hybrids in non-cotton to meet state requirements, area requirements. In last two years, we have launched many crops and again many hybrids and this year also we are already in the kharif season, we will launch three hybrids in maize, paddy and again in rabi season.  That way, we want to capture more market non-cotton areas and we want to grow fast.*

Q2 DOW TIMES:

1) Bajaj Finance: DOW TIMES estimates that co can report PAT of 570-656 Cr Vs Bloomberg estimate of 590crores

2) Bajaj Finserve: DOW TIMES estimates that Q2 PAT can be 650-660 Cr Vs Bloomberg estimate of 700 Cr

3) IndiaBull Housing Finance: DOW TIMES estimates that co can report PBT of 1120 Cr Vs Bloomberg estimate of 1085 Cr
We are NEUTRAL on all 3 stocks

.Important Update:Out of S Group

PANCHMAHAL STEEL LTD: Since 2 months, PSL was in S group which deterred investors from buying this stock. Now, stock is out of S group and investors can rush to buy as PSL has MULTIBAGGER potential

PSL has *SURPLUS* land. _Conservative market value of same is estimated to be TWICE of co's mktcap_

Presently plant operating at *just 30% capacity*. With higher demand post GST, PSL targeting to enhance it's sales by 50% next year, PSL can report EPS of 12.

Recently got ISO18001 which will enable exports to Europe

*Most undervalued specialty steel stock TP 150* in 2018

We expect *big corporate action* in 2018. As and when it happens, then PSL will be strongly rerated, will come on radar of brokerage houses and  CAN BE 300+ in 2-3 years from now

*Breaking News: As per source, MCQUAIRIE has signed definitive agreement with SSPDL promoter to acquire 51% stake. Announcement expected next week*

SSPDL (530821): To be rerated.                        

Near term TP 120-125

TP in 1 year: Rs 150

Chennai based SSPDL Ltd is engaged in Real Estate development.

Equity          12.93cr

Revenue     115cr

PAT.             16.20cr

*EPS Rs        12.53*

Stock is trading@ 8xFY17EPS

*BREAKING NEWS: GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES CO MCQUAIRIE FOR ITS REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO IS ACQUIRING 51% STAKE OF SSPDL PROMOTER @ 130/SHARE* Announcement in this regard is expected as soon as in next 1-2 weeks. As per source, definitive agreement already signed
SSPDL is Debt free but promoter exiting as hit by slowdown, don't have own  funds to implement projects on hand

1) The Retreat Kerala: Has 300 acres land in Idduki District for Villa and Jungle Resort development. Value of this alone is more than its mktcap

2) SSPDL NorthWoods: 42 acre project

3) 8.11 acre in Kancheepuram District: In JV as Developer, had potential of 1.2 million sq ft

4) Lakewood OMR: JV with Godrej 12.55 lac SF

5) 317 Cr worth project in Hyderabad to develop 1155 homes for BHEL employees on 90acres

6) Had made 4.77 lac SF Alpha City IT Park. Receivables 20.66cr

Macquarie will be able to infuse enough funds to kick-start above projects with particular eye on 300acre land in Kerala

With new FOREIGN promoters in control, fortunes of SSPDL will be much brighter

Stock can be 150 in less than 1 year

Q1EPS 18.73: MOST UNDERVALUED SUGAR STOCK

_Combo of Sugar, TyreCord, Fine Chemicals, API_

DCM SHRIRAM *IND* LTD: TP 700
BseCode 523369 (10FV)

Rationale for Recommendation:

1. Diversified Product range
2. Highly profitable Boom in All divisions
3. *FY17 EPS 70*
4. *FY18EEPS 77*

DSIL is diversified conglomerate engaged in production of SUGAR, TYRECORD, API, FINE CHEMICALS

A. _Daurala Sugar_ : One of the oldest sugar Mills and well-known name in U.P., sugar factory produces Premium Packages Sugar, Sugar Cubes, Sugar Sachets and Pharma grade Sugar. Also has 45000 KL distillery to produce Liquor, ENA

B. _Shriram Rayon's_ : Again one of the oldest and most well known name in Tyre industry, produces Rayon Tyre Yarn/Cord/Fabrics and Nylon yarn
C. _Daurala Organics_: This division produces Organic/Inorganic Chemicals and Drug Intermediates

             FY17.  FY16

Sales. 1506.    1216

PBT.        152     40

PAT.         122      34

Equity.    17.40

EPS Rs *70.19. 19.60*

DSIL reported exceptionally good nos forFY17 with NP of 122cr vs 34cr. Such performance was possible not only due to boom in sugar prices but TYRECORD division too performed much better due to robust demand from tyre industry and improved performance of Chemicals. In fact, *tyre cord industry has become seller mkt with strong pricing power*

_Finance cost is just 2% of Sales which should come down further with increased earnings_

                  FY18E

Sales.    1550

NP.          134

EPSRs.    77.   

DSIL is available at extremely attractive Valuations:

1) *Tdg @ 4.40xFY17eps*

2) *Avlbl @ 4.10xFY18Eeps*

3) BValue Rs 210

Even if DSIL gets modest PERATIO of 9, stock should be 700

( *We repeat Bse code no is  523369*)

Dhanlaxmi Bank Ltd:

Conclusions from Joindre Capital report:

1) DBL financials are improving significantly. FY17 PAT 12.38 Cr Vs  FY16 loss of 209 Cr

*FY18E NP 70-80cr*

2)There are only 2-3 account remaining which may show slippage  

3)On the other hand, several account are on recovery                           4) Hence net net DBL asset quality to improve from here                    

5)By raising further capital up to 150 crores through NCD will see further improvement in CAR without equity dilution                      

6)DBL to have more capital available for further expansion    

7)DBL loan book growing in retail segment that too against monetization   

8) Recent tie up with some insurance provider will lift top line          

9)ROI going forward to improve significantly  

10) *Strong take over candidate going forward*  Hence strong buy for target of 100 in one year time frame                     

Will not be surprised too see hitting UC in coming days

Important Update:

PANCHMAHAL STEEL LTD

PSL has *SURPLUS* land. _Conservative market value of same is estimated to be TWICE of co's mktcap_

Presently plant operating at just 30% capacity. With higher demand post GST, PSL targeting to enhance it's sales by 50% next year, PSL can report EPS of 12.

Recently got ISO18001 which will enable exports to Europe

*Most undervalued specialty steel stock TP 150*

We expect big corporate action in 2018. As and when it happens, then PSL will be strongly rerated, will come on radar of brokerage houses and  CAN BE 300+ in 2-3 years from now

*MKTCAP=1YEAR EBIDTA*

_Cheapest Paper Stock_

SHREE RAJESHWARANAND PAPER MILLS (516086)

*SRPML had EBIDTA of 18.71cr for FY17 and current mktcap is 18.76cr*. Rarely investors will get profit making co at 1 year Ebidta mktcap. STOCK IS ALSO TRADING ONLY  @ 15% OF ITS ANNUAL SALES

Gujarat based SRPML us engaged in production of Newsprint with installed capacity of 47000 tons. Last year, co also diversified into manufacturing of Abrasive Tools.
 
                 FY17 Rs/Cr

Sales.          125.40

EBIDTA.         18.71

Interest            9.02

Depreciation.  6.72

PBT.                  2.97

PAT.                   1.93

Equity.              12.45

*CashProfit.     8.65*

EPSRs.              1.55

*CashEPS.        6.95*

FY17 witnessed sharp improvement in its financials with PAT of 1.93cr Vs 60 Lacs YoY. During the year, Abrasive accounted for 13.60% of total sales. Co had been expanding paper capacity through internal accruals/Borrowings. In 4 years, it's topline had nearly doubled to 125 Cr from 65cr (consequently Finance cost rose from 3.54cr to 9cr). Benefits of such capex will be felt in coming years

Current Performance:

SRPML for Q1 has reported Sales of 25.80cr and NP of 50 Lacs *Vs loss of 32lacs YoY*

For FY18, SRPML can report Sales of 135 Cr and NP of 3.50-4cr with CASH PROFIT OF 10CR
Co is planning capex on balancing equipments to further increase production capacity and writing paper production

Stock is Undervalued as Tdg at 1xEBIDTA. With FY18EEPS of 3 and CASHEPS of 8.50, SRPML share price can DOUBLE in 1 year. If held for LONG term, stock price can be in 3 digits as in due course Abrasive division will also turn profitable
BUYING STRONGLY RECOMMENDED

https://youtu.be/M65MLMgL_wU

*Extreme Confidence*

PANCHMAHAL STEEL LTD

Promoter has increased his stake to 72.62% vs 70.79% QoQ
Many times promoters increase their stake when their stake is on lower side, say 40-50%.
However PSL promoter already held 70.79% and still buying another 2% from open market means that PSL HAS GREAT FUTURE

PSL don't make commodity steel. PSL makes only Technical/Special steel rods/wires used in EPC/ Engineering/Machinery/Power plants

Moreover, _floating stock slowly drying up as 2 institutions holding 17.70 lac shares have completely exited_

With mktcap of just 110cr, PSL is TOP PICK

*Some real big corporate action expected in Q2CY18 which can take its shares price to 150*

SSPDL (530821): To be rerated.                        

Near term TP 120-125

TP in 1 year: Rs 150

Chennai based SSPDL Ltd is engaged in Real Estate development.

Equity          12.93cr

Revenue     115cr

PAT.             16.20cr

*EPS Rs        12.53*

Stock is trading@ 8xFY17EPS

*BREAKING NEWS: GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES CO MCQUAIRIE FOR ITS REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO IS ACQUIRING 51% STAKE OF SSPDL PROMOTER @ 130/SHARE* Announcement in this regard is expected as soon as in next 1-2 weeks. As per source, definitive agreement already signed
SSPDL is Debt free but promoter exiting as hit by slowdown, don't have own  funds to implement projects on hand

1) The Retreat Kerala: Has 300 acres land in Idduki District for Villa and Jungle Resort development. Value of this alone is more than its mktcap

2) SSPDL NorthWoods: 42 acre project

3) 8.11 acre in Kancheepuram District: In JV as Developer, had potential of 1.2 million sq ft

4) Lakewood OMR: JV with Godrej 12.55 lac SF

5) 317 Cr worth project in Hyderabad to develop 1155 homes for BHEL employees on 90acres

6) Had made 4.77 lac SF Alpha City IT Park. Receivables 20.66cr

Macquarie will be able to infuse enough funds to kick-start above projects with particular eye on 300acre land in Kerala

With new FOREIGN promoters in control, fortunes of SSPDL will be much brighter

Stock can be 150 in less than 1 year

BEWARE OF FAKES/CHEATERS

We wish to inform our followers that DenOfWealth popularly known as DoW is available free of cost on our Telegram channel and 400 WhatsApp groups.

However one cheap newspaper from Ahmedabad in English/Gujarati is collecting Rs 5000 from investors by copying/imitating our brand DoW. Shame on such fakes who trying to make quick bucks by misleading investors

Hence please be informed that DenOfWealth has nothing to do whatsoever with this cheater and our followers are advised not to fall in trap of that newspaper :

Smartinvestment doing SMART job of a con

ORIGINAL DOW ONLY AT TELEGRAM/WHATSAPP/BLOG

Jaypee Infratech: Update

When we FIRST recommended JIL, it had more than doubled to Rs 25. However subsequently stock fell by nearly 50% due to exceptionally high and biased media coverage and statements of some politicians which does not stand test of IBC provisions.
We reiterate that JIL has huge landbank of 6000 acres and promoter is willing to settle entire debt in exchange of part of land parcels. Thereafter once promoter raises some funds, same will be used to complete construction of residential projects

Value of its hospital alone is more than current mktcap

We advise investors to have confidence in co's future and not to book loss.

STOCK WILL BE MULTIBAGGER TO THOSE WHO HAVE PATIENCE OF 2 YEARS

TFCI: Disinvestment Update

Finally IFCI has sold its 24% stake @ 150.10. The way deal is done, raises lot of questions and lacks transparency
Red Kite has picked 13% stake. As per our investigation, Red Kite has picked this stake on behalf of an FII and in coming time, Red Kite 13% to be transferred to FII. Centrum has also taken small exposure

Open offer may be 2-3 months away. Stock price has come down as traders have exited

However once new team/investors take control of TFCI, co will grow rapidly and stock price can double in 15 months

*DUSSEHRA GIFT FOR DoW FOLLOWERS*

SSPDL Ltd (530821)

Equity    12.93cr

NP          16.31ce

EPS Rs.  12.61

Chennai based Real Estate DEBTFREE co

DOW TIMES on Monday will make public BIG corporate trigger

_TP 115-120 by next weekend_

You can buy NOW

*FINAL IDENTITY:TFCI BUYER*

IFCI has so far not announced name of buyer for its TFCI stake.

But here DoW is giving ACCURATE Breaking News that promoter partner of  *Singapore based FII which has 2 billion dollar fund and specialists in stressed assets ( and have floated finance co in India in partnership with Shapoorji Pallonji)*has won the bid for TFCI. There is possibility of block deal with IFCI today.
With  new owners of TFCI, stock will be rerated

TFCI is _only nbfc available at 2xPrice/Book_

TFCI existing Networth is 600+ Crores. And borrowings just 1000+ Crores. *On existing Networth itself, TFCI can borrow total 3600 Crores*

_Security coverage ratio is 3x_

*Cost-Income ratio is amongst Lowest*

FY18Eeps 11-12

*Expect negligible NPA by current year end*

TFCI can be 300 in 12-15 months

TFCI: Update

IFCI has already finalized winner for TFCI stake sale on 25th. Since no announcement in this regard so far, traders have been selling. Aided by bad mkt, stock has been falling BUT HUGE VOLUMES

As per our info, IFCI should make this announcement anytime soon as first, IFCI is doing legal formalities of signing Agreement with buyer

Now regarding identity of buyer, as per our *reliable insider* Singapore based FII has won the bid for TFCI
With Private Equity Fund as new owner of TFCI, stock will be rerated

We may repeat that TFCI is _only nbfc available at 2xPrice/Book_

TFCI can be 300 in 12 months

Investors can add more

*URGENT OPPORTUNITY OF HIGH REWARD VERY LOW RISK: TFCI*

Last day to submit bid is 3pm today

We reliably learn that bids will be opened today itself at 5pm and Winner Highest Bidder should be declared by 6-7pm

It is almost unlikely that bids for management control will be at a price lower than cmp. Any entity deserves minimum 20% for giving away ownership.
When last week stock was 170+, bids could have been at 200-220 minimum.
However considering lower cmp today, still bids must be at 180-200.

Downside from cmp appears almost nil and upside can be 20%/much higher

Hence investors at last moments may add more

TFCI: No need to panic

Due severe fall in market for 2 consecutive days, TFCI too has come down. However we advise our investors not to panic. We are confident that bidding for TFCI stake should be at 200+. Today is last date for bidding and winner should be announced in next few days.

*Fundamentally also, co on strong ground and Undervalued. In the past we have seen that management change brings revolution in fortunes of the co. Kishor Biyani exited Capital First at 150. Now stock is 5x.  Hindustan Zinc after changing hands to Vedanta group is 200x. Govt proposing hardly 10% sale in BEML to private investors and stock has zoomed from 900 although no concrete plan still about 10% stake sale*
Under this govt, TFCI will be first co to be fully privatised. *TFCI can be another Capital First*

TFCI: POTENTIAL OF 100% CAGR

As a Govt undertaking, TFCI follows internal policy to disburse maximum 50crores per account. However, new private sector promoter will scrap such internal guidelines and *will disburse much bigger amounts*.  Hence, for initial 2-3 years, _TFCI can grow even 100% as TFCI will also diversify in HFC, Retail Finance_

*HIGHEST C.R.R:TFCI*

TFCI can be credited with HIGHEST CRR in NBFC industry in India. With CRR of 43%, TFCI can raise funds at as low as 7%.
*As per our fully reliable source, India's biggest electronic/TV media moghul ZEE is also ready to bid for TFCI*

*ZERO NPA*

TFCI: As per our reliable source, TFCI has made recovery in 3 big NPA accounts. Hence there is likelihood that TFCI may become *first Indian NBFC with zero NPA*
Stock is bound to be rerated

Moreover, hardly any investor knows that TFCI has strongest/highest collateral security. For example ( hypothetical), a hotel borrows 30 Crores from TFCI but has to pledge hotel property ( in favour of TFCI) which may be worth 200 Crores. Hence, TFCI *never takes haircut*

TP Rs 500 in 3 years

BREAKING NEWS:TFCI

IFCI had invited bids for stake sale of TFCI.

LAST DATE FOR SUBMISSION OF BIDS IS 25th September

*As per our most reliable information, bids being submitted are as high as Rs 200 to 220*. Open offer will follow in early October.

Bidders in race include

Cox & Kings
Thomas Cook
Mahindra Holiday Resort
Zee Group
Sajjan Jindal

_TFCI bound to cross 200 once winner is announced by September-end_

BEST BUY

Stock can be 500 in 2 years

*Bharat Bijlee Ltd:TP 2200-2400*

Rationale for recommendation due to Growth Story emerging Core business along with HUGE INTRINSIC VALUE ( nearly 3x of CMP)
❖ Bharat Bijlee Limited established in 1946 , is one of the leaders in the electrical engineering industry in India.

A multi-product, multi-divisional organization, its main business segments are Transformers, Projects, Electric Motors, Elevator Systems and Drives & Automation.

Bharat Bijlee (BBL) operates in two business segments—power systems (56% top line) and industrial systems (44% top line).

Intra-state investments in 13th Plan to drive demand for power transformers

In the 13th Plan, intra-state investments of INR 1,30,000 cr under category 132kV to 220kV and 400 kV are envisaged. These investments will be contributed by state transcoms and central government sponsored schemes (IPDS+DDUGJY).

BBL to be a strong beneficary of these investments as the as company has establisehed strong credentials in 132 kV to 220 kV class transformers up to 200 MVA range.

BBL’s Industrial systems business is expected to grow gradually as industrial capex is slowly pick up.

However, BBL continues to adopt a conservative approach towards building the order book in order to ensure that margins, project readiness for timely completion and collection of dues do not drag the performance and profitability of the business

With government aggressive mission of ‘Electricity for all by 2019’ will be the demand driver for the power and capital goods sector.

Institutional  Share Holdings in BBL is 17%

FINANCIALS
                FY17 FY18E

Sales.     690.    750

PAT.        19.61.    23

Equity.      5.65

*EPS Rs.   34.70. 40.70*

Book Value Rs 510

Stock is trading at 30xFY18Eeps

BBL can report EPS of 50+ next year

However BBL deserves much much higher valuations due to HUGE VALUE OF ITS OTHER ASSETS:

A)  _Market Value of Listed Shares (Siemens, HDFC, ICICI etc) is around 390 Cr_ which works out toRs
*690 Per Share*

B) *BBL has  Rs.150Cr Cash/ cash equivalent. Works out to  Rs.263 Per Share*

C) BBL has its plant in Airoli Navi Mumbai ( which had become big IT hub)and the land parcel 20,00,000 Sq Feet. Very conservative market rate in Airoli is 7000 per Sq Feet. Thus, this LAND PARCEL IS WORTH 1400CR.

*TOTAL VALUE OF 3 ASSETS NAMELY INVESTMENTS, CASH, LAND BANK IS 1940 CR* AS AGAINST MKTCAP OF  680Cr

_Translates into Value of Rs.3430 whereas CMP is 1200_

BBL has potential to be 2x in 12-18 months

A strong Buy

*Game Changer: Jyoti Structures Ltd*

As per our reliable sources, lenders/banks likely to take *70-75% haircut on entire loan portfolio*

It means total debt of JSL ( around 7000 Cr which includes Interest, penal interest as well) can fall below 2000 Crores. Such low debt coupled with induction of new promoters, JSL can turn corner as early as next year.
And JSL may not be cakewalk for KEC as Shapoorji Pallonji has also made very aggressive bid.

All in all, shareholders of JSL set for better Future

High volumes despite T group indicates that stock being accumulated by knowledgeable investors

TP 25 in near term

*Resolution Next Month: TP Rs 22-25*

JYOTI STRUCTURES LTD

NCLT has already received bids for JSL.
KEC International ( biggest in transmission tower) most keen to acquire JSL which provides 2 big bang advantage:

1) 1400 Cr carry forward losses of JSL will provide biggest tax cushion to KEC. KEC may not have to pay income tax for next 5-6 years

2) Acquisition of JSL will further consolidate transmission tower industry and KEC will become undisputed king with Kalpataru far behind

As per our sources JSL shareholders can get *open offer @ Rs 25*

Hence, investors can gain nearly 100% from current mkt price

*HIGHEST C.R.R:TFCI*

TFCI can be credited with HIGHEST CRR in NBFC industry in India. With CRR of 43%, TFCI can raise funds at as low as 7%.
*As per our fully reliable source, India's biggest electronic/TV media moghul is also ready to bid for TFCI*

*ZERO NPA*

TFCI: As per our reliable source, TFCI has made recovery in 3 big NPA accounts. Hence there is likelihood that TFCI may become *first Indian NBFC with zero NPA*
Stock is bound to be rerated

Moreover, hardly any investor knows that TFCI has strongest/highest collateral security. For example ( hypothetical), a hotel borrows 30 Crores from TFCI but has to pledge hotel property ( in favour of TFCI) which may be worth 200 Crores. Hence, TFCI *never takes haircut*

TP Rs 500 in 3 years

Superb Q1:RCI Industries

RCI industries has reported excellent growth for Q1:

              Q1FY18 Q1FY17

Sales.    555.       419

PAT.        8.22.      2.83

EPS.        6.13.      2.60

Sharp improvement in margins. *Sales have grown by 32% to 555cr whereas NP zooms by 190% to 8.22cr*

Q1 EPS Rs 6.13.

RCI is on course to achieve EPS of 31 for FY18. *Stock is trading at _6.60xFY18eEPS_*

*CAN BE 2x: Shree Karthik Papers Ltd*

Coimbatore based SKPL is engaged in production of writing and printing paper with capacity of 14000 tonnes per annum. SKPL uses waste paper as raw material. _Total land area is 30acres_

With revival of paper industry, SKPL has been doing extremely well and share price appears poised for big rise

FINANCIALS:

               Q1FY18 Q1FY17

Sales      16.31.    9.27

NP.            1.28.   -0.38

Equity.       9.55

For FY17 , co had reported sales of 47.62cr with PAT of 2.21 Cr

However co has put stellar performance for Q1:

*Sales have risen to 16.31 Cr Vs 9.27cr and PAT 1.28cr Vs Loss of 38lacs*

For FY18, SKPL should report sales of 68-70cr and 5.75cr PAT.

PROMOTER STAKE 74.52%

Mkt value of 30acre land alone is more than its mkt cap. On this vast land, co can undertake big expansion of production capacity

TP Rs Rs 35-38 in 4-6 months

TFCI: Cox & Kings, Mahindra Holidays keen on Tourism Fin stake from IFCI

Line of suitors will continue to get longer. We reiterate that disinvestment at 180+

Worth buying even now for SURESHOT gains

*ZERO NPA*

TFCI: As per our reliable source, TFCI has made recovery in 3 big NPA accounts. Hence there is likelihood that TFCI may become *first Indian NBFC with zero NPA*
Stock is bound to be rerated

Moreover, hardly any investor knows that TFCI has strongest/highest collateral security. For example ( hypothetical), a hotel borrows 30 Crores from TFCI but has to pledge hotel property ( in favour of TFCI) which may be worth 200 Crores. Hence, TFCI *never takes haircut*

TP Rs 500 in 3 years

Dhanlaxmi bank vs CSB

Recently there is news that Catholic Syrian Bank ( not listed) may be acquired by Fairfax @ 160 per share.

FY17 Financials in terms of NPA and NP of CSB are lower/weaker compared to Dhanlaxmi bank.

Using this yardstick of Valuations, DBL going dirt cheap and _can definitely be in 3 digits in 2018_
DBL Nnpa already down to 2.58%. We estimate that *Nnpa for FY18 may be as low as 1-1.25%*

DBL AMONGST OUR TOP PICKS. Q2 NOs *(Q2 NP can be 25cr)* WILL RERATE DBL

DoW Exclusive ANDHRA CEMENT

3 giants in talks to acquire management control by buying out promoter stake
*Ultra tech is front runner. Announcement expected in few weeks*

TP 18-21 September End

*Kaveri Seed (KSCL) - A short term technical perspective*
KSCL was in the limelight during QIFY18 results time when the share price zoomed from Rs.620 to a 52-week high of Rs708. The stock encountered distribution/selling at that level and tanked all the way down to Rs.498 in spite of posting the best ever results, typifying the adage- "sell on good news". Undoubtedly, such a steep fall could have been triggered due to the exit of some big stake holder in the company's share portfolio. After the steep correction, the stock is consolidating in the range of Rs.520 & Rs.570 and is positioning itself to go past the upper band. It looks that the present consolidation will trigger an up move which will initially take the share price to Rs.600-620 and then to Rs.640 and Rs.680 levels. On the downside, the stock gets firm supports at Rs.520 and Rs.480. Though the stock has been under performing the index for the last one month or so, I expect the stock to move in tandem with the broader market...
G R CHARI

http://www.livemint.com/Companies/45xVvN5svSR1YtXqudSIfL/Thomas-Cook-in-race-to-acquire-IFCIs-2609-stake-in-Touris.html

Highly aggressive bidding will take place. Entity like Thomas Cook and some other foreign institutions, stake sale likely at 180+

*Balasore Alloy Ltd*

BAL is 2nd largest producer of Ferro Chrome in India. Co has its _own captive Ore mines_. Hence cost of production of Ferro Chrome per ton is largely fixed.

Balasore alloy had produced 1.22 lac tonnes in FY16.

Production in FY17 was1.31 lac tonnes

_Co is in position to produce 1.40 lac ton in FY18 as installed capacity is 1.46 lac ton_

Financials:

                FY17

Sales.      1012

NP.               90

Equity.     44.4

EPS Rs.   10(diluted)

Balasore made NP of 43.52 cr in 9 month of current year on 39.44 cr Equity. No *NP OF Q4 ALONE IS 46 CR*

a) BAL is lowest cost producer of Ferro Chrome with cost of Rs60000 per ton.

b). One-third of contracts are booked on yearly basis. It means co  got benefit of high price in H1 as well
c) 50% contracts are quarterly basis. So impact of higher price would have  added to profits in Q1

d) one-third contracts are booked on spot basis.

Co has already started work for underground mining of Ore

As per our analysis, considering orders under execution,  *Balasore can post NP of 30+ cr for Q1*.

*For FY18 Balasore can achieve NP of MINIMUM 105cr*

_EPS for FY18 can be 11.70_. Stock is trading at *just 5.10xFY18Eeps*

BAL appears underpriced and there is scope for decent appreciation.

We expect stock can be 85 in 3 months and 110  9 months

An excellent Buy

*$Tourism Finance - a Technical Update$*
The share rallied from Rs.55 to Rs.115 during March-May 2017 and then moved in a sideways direction b/w Rs.90 & Rs.115. However, this consolidation phase of sideways movement was broken on the upside with the *stock hitting a new yearly high at Rs.121.75 with good volumes*. With the positive P/V action, the *stock is on the threshold of a new bull run* (with minor corrections). *The stock is getting accumulated and moving into strong, knowledgeable hands* and the price *should touch Rs.140 in the near term*. The medium term prospect and re-rating of share will depend on future developments in the company/industry. The share is ready for a take-off and is *still available at an attractive price and can be bought for good appreciation in both short to medium term.*

By Sh G R Chari

Clarification: NMDC

As per some newspaper report, NMDC has scaled down it's target production to 50 million tonnes for 2018-19(next FY). Such half facts give bearish outlook which is not true

1) Production in July month is already up 25%

2) Further NMDC likely to produce 38-40 million tonnes in current year.
Hence *50 million tonnes next year means 25% jump YoY* which will be excellent achievement

*CAN MAKE NEW HIGH:NMDC*

NMDC still available much below it's 52week high of Rs 152. NMDC poised for great show in coming quarters:

1) Q1 Ebidta rose *61% to 1440cr vs 896cr*
2) Q1 PAT rose *89%to 969cr vs 512cr*
ABOVE DESPITE ONE OFF EXP OF 146cr
_Most commendable that Iron ore prices had fallen to 50 dollars during the quarter_

*NOW ORE PRICES HAVE ZOOMED TO 75 DOLLARS. NMDC CAN SOON RAISE ORE PRICES BY 8-10%*

FY17 EPS CAN BE 14-15. PERatio only 9

Motilal Oswal TP 180
Antique TP 150

As per Mr Ahluwalia (Director Finance), NMDC expects to sell its Steel Plant for Rs 14000 Cr. It means *cash inflow of nearly Rs 46-47 per share*
NMDC ALREADY HAS 5300CR CASH
Majority of sale proceeds likely to be used for Dividend distribution.

*TP 148 September expiry* ( May remind that our recommendation JSW Steel at 219 has spurted to 260 in 4 weeks)

BEST BET IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT FOR SEPTEMBER SERIES

MOST LIKELY MULTIBAGGER

_MAGNUM VENTURES LTD_

Post GST, promoters will be forced to be investor friendly:
1) In hotel industry, it was not uncommon to take CASH payment for banquet functions. It was double whammy for hotel bottom line as F&B purchase in co a/c but revenue nil. Now, it has become nearly impossible. Hence, hotel division of MVL should stop incurring losses

2) Paper Division: Paper industry too had significant cash sales.  Now paper division 85000 tonnes of MVL can have hugely improved margins

3) Paper plant has 10acres land, of which only 5acres is occupies

4) Finally, once transfer of debt to ARC and 50% haircut is formally announced by co, stock will stand RERATED

Current mktcap is half of 2017 high and tiny by any yardstick

We will not be surprised if MVL quotes in 3 digits in 2019(Investors may be reminded that we had advised buy on Star Paper at Rs 7 in 2014)

BIG BREAKING NEWS

  _NMDC LTD_

As per Mr Ahluwalia (Director Finance), NMDC expects to sell its Steel Plant for Rs 14000 Cr. It means *cash inflow of nearly Rs 46-47 per share*
NMDC ALREADY HAS 5300CR CASH
Majority of sale proceeds likely to be used for Dividend distribution.

NMDC, as per CPSE norms, is also bonus candidate

TP 146-148 September expiry

Top bet in derivative segment

Favourable winds for NMDC stock

*IRON ORE PRICE ZOOM 50% FROM JUNE LOW*

ANTIQUE   TP 150
MOTILAL OSWAL TP180

After seeing a steep correction between February and June, the NMDC stock has rebounded. More gains are likely. While the stock's correction was due to declining iron ore prices, recovery in prices and strong June quarter performance lifted sentiment. From highs of $90 a tonne in February, iron ore prices had *fallen to $50 levels by June-end. The price is now close to $75 a tonne*. Despite a correction in iron ore prices during the June quarter, profitability of NMDC improved(
*EBIDTA surged 55% YoY, 71% QoQ. PAT up 37% YoY, 89% QoQ*)

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/favourable-winds-for-nmdc-stock-117081801537_1.html

Market Technical Update:
Looks like the market has taken support at 9,700 in the Nifty and is trying to make a slow recovery. The resistance at 10,000 is an hurdle that's need to be crossed if the nifty has to make further advances. Moderate purchase is recommended at this moment... G R CHARI

AGRITECH INDIA LTD

Co is implementing some food park. However revenue from same should start only in CY19. Till then, co has zero business
However stock is being promoted that _Agritech has reported huge EPS and stock trading at very low PE_

However truth is entirely different
In FY16, co had EPS of 21.90 but it was *only due to one time gain from land sale* Without same, co would have shown small loss
Similarly in Q1,there is EPS of 27. This too is *only due to one time gain from sale of Nath Bio shares* Without same, EPS would be zero
Hence investors should take decision after considering above facts

Q1EPS 18.73: MOST UNDERVALUED SUGAR STOCK

_Combo of Sugar, TyreCord, Fine Chemicals, API_

DCM SHRIRAM *IND* LTD: TP 700
BseCode 523369 (10FV)

Rationale for Recommendation:

1. Diversified Product range
2. Highly profitable Boom in All divisions
3. *FY17 EPS 70*
4. *FY18EEPS 77*

DSIL is diversified conglomerate engaged in production of SUGAR, TYRECORD, API, FINE CHEMICALS

A. _Daurala Sugar_ : One of the oldest sugar Mills and well-known name in U.P., sugar factory produces Premium Packages Sugar, Sugar Cubes, Sugar Sachets and Pharma grade Sugar. Also has 45000 KL distillery to produce Liquor, ENA

B. _Shriram Rayon's_ : Again one of the oldest and most well known name in Tyre industry, produces Rayon Tyre Yarn/Cord/Fabrics and Nylon yarn
C. _Daurala Organics_: This division produces Organic/Inorganic Chemicals and Drug Intermediates

             FY17.  FY16

Sales. 1506.    1216

PBT.        152     40

PAT.         122      34

Equity.    17.40

EPS Rs *70.19. 19.60*

DSIL reported exceptionally good nos forFY17 with NP of 122cr vs 34cr. Such performance was possible not only due to boom in sugar prices but TYRECORD division too performed much better due to robust demand from tyre industry and improved performance of Chemicals. In fact, *tyre cord industry has become seller mkt with strong pricing power*

_Finance cost is just 2% of Sales which should come down further with increased earnings_

                  FY18E

Sales.    1550

NP.          134

EPSRs.    77.   

DSIL is available at extremely attractive Valuations:

1) *Tdg @ 4.40xFY17eps*

2) *Avlbl @ 4.10xFY18Eeps*

3) BValue Rs 210

Even if DSIL gets modest PERATIO of 9, stock should be 700

( *We repeat Bse code no is  523369*)

Maithan Alloys Ltd:

Maithan has reported good nos for Q1. However we advise investors to book profit and exit the stock completely. Company can come in news for wrong reason and stock price can fall

Five Star Hotel+85000ton Paper: Mktcap 52cr

MAGNUM VENTURES LTD

Delhi based MVL is in business of hospitality and paper mfg.

1) Hotel Division: Co owns and operates 5 star hotel *Country Inn*with 212 rooms which also has 4 restaurants and coffee shop. Located in Sahibabad , outskirts of Delhi

2) Paper Division: Spread over 10 acres, it has 85000 tonnes capacity

MVL doesn't have good track record. However co appears on cusp of turnaround. Stock price can go up multiple times, hence buy recommendation.

                              FY17

Sales.                   212

Depreciation.      23.87

Loss.                   -26.34

Exceptional.      129.50
Gain

Profit                  103

MVL made loss of 26.34 from its business operations. _Since co provided 23.87 cr for depreciation, Cash loss was 2.50cr_ . Due to One Time Gain of 129.50cr, MVL showed profit

            Q1FY18.  Q1FY17
Income    65.       60

NP.           0.24.   -(11.42)

MVL has reported better nos for Q1 with *NP of 24 Lacs Vs LOSS of 11.42cr YoY*

MAJOR DEVELOPMENT: Major portion of MVL is under restructuring wherein ARC is acquiring debt of MVL (likely haircut 50%) and payment of same by MVL can be spread over 8 years *interest free*. It will lead to substantial write back which will make MVL Networth+

Reduction of debt will lead to better Operating margins in current year

Although we are not able to estimate financial for FY18 ( MVL will report profit, no Loss) still MVL appears risk free buy considering:

HOTEL ITSELF COULD BE WORTH MORE THAN 300 CRORES

PROSPECTS OF PAPER DIVISION MAKING PROFIT ARE QUITE BRIGHT

MKTCAP OF 52 CR IS
PEANUTS

Stock can be 30 in 1 year. If MVL can continue improving its financials,  stock can be REAL MULTIBAGGER in 2-3 years

Compared to recent high of Rs 24, stock is attractive buy at CMP

Buying  recommended

*CPC PRICE LIFETIME HIGH*: RAIN INDUSTRIES

CPC, CTP, Chemicals & 3.5 mn Ton cement

Huge Assets/Value: Mktcap Tiny

The key takeaways from Rain Industries call Q2CY17 Result

1. Demand for CPC and CTP continues to improve
2. Company hopeful of *raising margins* in Carbon segment;

Chemicals segment *EBITDA should likely to improve* from Q3CY17.

3. Aluminium demand positive; prices rising with lower inventories . Some western world smelters likely to restart smelters which will futher improve demand of CPC and CTP
4. Tightness in supply of GPC too, but Rain well-poised to get supplies given its long-term relationships with suppliers

5. For Russian JV, they will source raw material from their partner Severstal Steel

6. Refinancing likely post- January to lower interest costs further

COMMENTS OF DoW
_Rain is LARGEST producer of CPC in the world with 2.5million ton_ and biggest beneficiary of CPC boom

In concall, conservative mgtmnt is (1st time) is so bullish. *Order booking of CPC for H2 at lifetime high prices. H2 EPS can be 13*

TP 200 Dec2017

Barring unforeseen, stock has potential to be 450 in 24-30 months

KSCL:To bounce back sharply

As estimated by DoW, KSCL has reported *whopping 31% rise in NP QoQ, also beating all Street estimates*

Q1 EPS is 29.31

NP margin 34.27%vs 31.25%

_Stock has come down ONLY due to  selling of margin funded shares_

CASH IN HAND 658CR

MKT VALUE OF LANDBANK 800+CR

STOCK TDG AT JUST 14XFY18EEPS
Almost all brokerages should upgrade KSCL as BUY

*PEER COMPARISON: KSCL CHEAPEST* 

Name.             PERatio

DuPont             31

Monsanto        25.3

Syngenta           36

Monsanto india 32 

Bayer.                  31

*KSCL.                 14*

_HUGE SCOPE FOR UPGRADE_

Worst is over and KSCL can make new high

Update:Jaypee Infratech

We advise our followers not to get demoralised by  sensation being created in various sections of media
JIL has 6175 acres of land bank, Yamuna expressway and 2 hospitals. Hospitals itself are worth more than its mktcap. Co spent 13000cr on making Expressway which today will cost 25000+Cr
JIL is in trouble at present but Will come out triumphant
There are media reports that _Govt will sell its assets to deliver homes to home buyers_. Legally, DoW feels it is not possible under existing laws. If it were so, there would not have been hundreds of defaulting builders and govt could very well do same against other builders.  And govt could apply such law against rogue industrialists whose NPAs have driven PSBs on brink of sickness

We reiterate our TP in 3 digits

( DoW had recommended Star Paper at Rs 7 and Mangalam Drugs at Rs 6, I G Petrol at Rs 18-20)

*BY THE TIME TRUTH PUT ITS BOOTS ON, LIE HAD ALREADY TRAVELLED HALF THE WORLD*

_Jaypee Infratech Ltd_

This is what happened with JIL when almost every electronic channel screeching loudly in spreading lies about JIL's alleged insolvency
DoW was only channel which did its best to clear fog from investors' minds. JIL suffered few lower circuits. However finally TRUTH has smothered media lies and Jaypee Infratech is UC with huge volumes
We once again advise investors to remain invested for multiple gains in coming year(s)

Morgan Stanley picks 

THE “FUTURE” MEGA CAP LIST

JSW STEEL ONLY STEEL STOCK IN THE LIST

Cummins India
*JSW Steel*
Lupin
M&M Financials
Petronet LNG
UPL
Zee Entertainment

*CLSA on JSW Steel: BQ Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 300*
Costs rose sequentially partly due to higher-cost coking coal inventory
Management positive on demand, pricing and cost outlook
Price hikes, lagged benefit of input cost decline and higher volumes to drive JSW’s margins
Better pricing/margin visibility due to anti-dumping duties
Tightening Indian steel demand-supply post FY19
Large value-accretive Dolvi expansion coming up in FY21

*Credit Suisse on JSW Steel: BQ Maintain Outperform; TP hiked to Rs 265 from Rs 240*

Results beat on strong performance from subsidiaries
Export prices rising and domestic prices still at a discount
FY18E/FY19E EPS rise 1%/3% due to result beat and higher steel prices
Remain constructive on the back of improving global steel prices

Q1 Update: Panchmahal

DoW had estimated NP for Q1. However co has reported Loss of 2.19cr. Although this figure is lower than Loss of 4.85 Cr in Q1/FY17.

For Q1 Sales have increased to 112cr Vs 105cr QoQ. Only reason for Loss is Other Expenses are 9.49cr Vs 4.44cr, increase of 5 Cr. And Other Expenses have increased only due to ISO18001 exercise. Panchmahal has recently obtained ISO18001 which is mandatory for exports to Europe. Hence investors not to panicked as Q3 onwards, results should be positive with substantial profits

*With mktcap of less than 100cr, Panchmahal is most Undervalued Steel stock*

Can add more

RAIN INDUSTRIES: Q2CY17 Result:

The key takeaways from Rain Industries call:

1. Demand for CPC and CTP continues to improve
2. Company hopeful of *raising margins* in Carbon segment;

Chemicals segment *EBITDA should likely to improve* from Q3CY17.

3. Aluminium demand positive; prices rising with lower inventories . Some western world smelters likely to restart smelters which will futher improve demand of CPC and CTP
4. Tightness in supply of GPC too, but Rain well-poised to get supplies given its long-term relationships with suppliers

5. For Russian JV, they will source raw material from their partner Severstal Steel

6. Refinancing likely post- January to lower interest costs further

COMMENTS OF DoW

In concall, conservative mgtmnt is (1st time) is so bullish. *Order booking of CPC for H2 at lifetime high prices. H2 EPS can be 13*

Barring unforeseen, stock has potential to be 450 in 24-30 months

My reading of the market is that, it's still early days to comment on change of trend. The broader uptrend is still intact as long as the Nifty holds on to, say, 8950. Till then, the market will gyrate up & down and every correction of say 5% (like now) will be a "buy on dips" opportunity. Except geo-political factors, there is no major change in/concern to the economic fundamentals both in the U.S. & India. Further, liquidity is in surfeit and RBI is not proactive to sterilize the excess liquidity in the economy. As a result, equity still remains "the best in class" asset/ investment. What we see in India today is deflation and it may take some time for the tide to turn around. The informal economy (about 40%) is in a moribund state due govt.'s drive on black money and the economy is undergoing a much needed structural change. Anticipating this, the market has moved up much ahead of the fundamentals. Given the above, the present correction is long overdue from a valuation perspective. In the short-term, I expect the market to stabilize around 9750 in the Nifty and trade sideways in the 9600-10,000 zone.

Contributed by Sh G R Chari

Smear Campaign against Jaypee Infratech:

Since last 2 days, various media channels engaged in mud- slinging against Jaypee Infratech saying that co HAS BEEN declared Insolvent. There is not grain of truth in such ill-informed lies.

NCLT has only admitted petition of lenders and insolvency professional has been appointed to oversee the insolvency proceedings. Various parties including lenders, promoters, other secured unsecured creditors will be invited for their submissions. If no resolution is found in 90+180 days, only then jaypee infra can be declared insolvent.
Company has huge assets and main beneficiary of upcoming Jewar airport. Jaypee will offer part of land parcels to settle entire debt and it is highly highly unlikely that it will be tagged as insolvent

*WEB OF DECEIT?*

_FiberWeb India_
This BSE listed co claims to be in biz of nonspun bonded fabrics. Have a look at latest Consolidated no's of Q1:

1) Revenue 54cr Vs 13cr, *up 400% YoY*

2) Finance Cost 99lac Vs 101lacs

3) Other Expenses 2.66 Cr Vs 3.48cr

4) Employees Cost 1cr Vs 1cr

5) *Raw Material Cost 77.50% Vs 42%*. R/M cost 41.6cr( sales 53.7) Vs 5.5cr(sales 13cr)

When Sales go up _BY 310%, employees cost stagnant, finance cost down and OTHER Expenses decline_

Co *claims* to drive 70% revenue from exports but no bifurcation of domestic/export sales. No Forex Gain/Loss

FY 17 sales gallop nearly 100% YoY but *R/M cost 71% Vs 56%* and Employee cost stagnant at 4.20cr and Other Expenses decline by 1cr

AMAZING ACCOUNTING TECHNOLOGY

SEBI FINANCE MINISTRY SHOULD ORDER FORENSIC AUDIT TO FIND OUT REAL SHELL COMPANY

Rain Industries:TP 450

Rain is the largest mfr of CPC in the world and 2nd largest for CTP , apart from 3.5 million ton cement

Today co has to declare Q1 result. Looking at uptrend in prices of its products, Rain can report HIGHEST EVER quarterly PAT

Rain is also setting up 5 lac ton green field project for CPC in India to meet increased demand

Recently CPC prices have touched all time high. Rain can report STEEP rise in H2 profits
There can be many triggers in offing in coming months

Our TP(barring unforeseen)

175-200 by Dec 17

450-500 in 24-30 months

OUR TOP PICK

KSCL: Update
As per our reliable sources, KSCL has fallen so much due to MTM call which forced several brokers for sell off
Hybrid seed biz is indispensable and KSCL on track for 240-250cr NP in current year
Stock can bounce back sharply
Can add more

Jaypee Infratech:Update

1) There are media reports that JIL has been declared insolvent, creating wrong impression. This is not correct terminology used by not-so-knowledgeable guys.
Fact is that NCLT has admitted application of lenders for insolvency proceedings. Insolvency professional has been appointed to conduct proceedings. Now, various sides including lenders, promoter will be invited for their submissions. Co can be declared insolvent only if promoter not offering any solution. However JIL has 6175 acre land bank valued at 50000+crores. Like JP Associate, in case of JIL, promoter don't want to cheat, not asking for haircut. Promoter will offer part of land parcels to settle debt. And lenders will have no option but to accept this fair proposal. JIL will be 1st co to come out of NCLT. Nothing to worry
We reiterate TP 100 and TP(2) 200

*4800cr Turnaround:PFC*

PFC has plummeted from 169 due to LOSS of 3409cr in March quarter caused by 4479cr provision of NPAs
However, as per our estimates, PFC can report spectacular Turnaround in Q1

*Q1 NP CAN BE 1400CR VS LOSS OF 3409CR IN Q4*. This turnaround 4800 Cr possible as PFC is likely to upgrade several NPA accounts, leading to Asset quality improvement

Provision in Q1 can be as *low as 500 Cr Vs 4479cr in Q4*
_Book Value of Rs 138 means Bonus Shares Issue may be liberal_
PFC CAN DISBURSE 30,000+CR TO DISCOMS IN Q2/Q3
Appears that Q4 loss was one-time blip and PFC should report *profit in all quarters of FY18*

Can PFC make new 52 week high!

PFC ( 134.30 ) - Triangle Breakout. *Supp @ 130. *Pattern Target 143*
Abv That Extended Tgts 147 & 152.

NMDC: IDFC Securities

TP 149

Maintains Outperform;

*TP Hiked to Rs 149*

FY18E earnings to be driven by higher prices and volumes
Do not expect any further cut in iron ore prices by NMDC
Expect NMDC to increase iron ore prices by Rs100/t in Q3FY18

KSCL:Result Update Q1

As estimated by DoW, KSCL has reported *whopping 31% rise in NP QoQ, also beating all Street estimates*

Q1 EPS is 29.31

NP margin 34.27%vs 31.25%

Stock has come down due selling of margin funded shares.

CASH IN HAND 658CR

MKT VALUE OF LANDBANK 800+CR

STOCK TDG AT JUST 16XFY18EEPS

Stock is out of ban. Almost all brokerages should upgrade KSCL as BUY

Worst appears over and stock should bounce back

ADD MORE

*Huge 30% growth YoY*

KSCL:Q1 Result today

DoW estimates Q1 NP at _203 Cr Vs 154 Cr_. KSCL likely to best all Street estimates including CNBC by big margin

Further KSCL has introduced highly profitable Micronutrients which can add 30cr to its bottom line from FY19

*FY18 NP is estimated at 240-260 Cr Vs 87cr in FY17*

Stock price can be 775 August expiry

POISED FOR BIG IMPROVEMENT:

PANCHMAHAL STEEL

1) For Q1, PSL can report PBT of 2.90 Cr Vs LOSS of 4.85 Cr, *turnaround of nearly 8 Crores*

2) PSL has obtained ISO 18001 recently. It makes PSL eligible for Exports to Europe

3) GST has served big blow to unorganized sector competitors and PSL _stands to benefit immensely from GST_

*Extreme Confidence*

PANCHMAHAL STEEL LTD

Promoter has increased his stake to 72.62% vs 70.79% QoQ
Many times promoters increase their stake when their stake is on lower side, say 40-50%.
However PSL promoter already held 70.79% and still buying another 2% from open market means that PSL HAS GREAT FUTURE

Moreover, _floating stock slowly drying up as 2 institutions holding 17.70 lac shares have completely exited_

With mktcap of just 110cr, PSL is CHEAPEST STEEL STOCK

*Intrinsic Value 1300cr:Mktcap 60cr* 

NTC INDUSTRIES LTD is engaged in manufacture and
exports of cigarattes. In fact, incorporated in 1931 and earlier known
as National Tobacco Industries Ltd, NTC had pioneered manufacture of
85mm Filter cigarettes in India and also 1st company to introduce
Mentholated cigarettes.  Main brands of NTC are;

Regent
COOL
No 10
National Gold Flake
Fine  Cut
MayPole
Jaipur
General

Its licensed capacity is 2250 million sticks per annum.

However, financial performance of NTC is small.  Cigaratte industry in
India and globally is dominated by Global Giants with ultra-strong
brand presence in all countries. In such a scenario, NTC did not and
does not have financial muscle to spend huge amounts to create brand
awareness of its brands. Therefore, company is utilizing miniscule
portion of its licensed capacity as company is able to sell its
cigarettes in North Eastern states and also do exports to Middle East
S America, Africa also (but here again margins are not good in these
markets).

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE:

                            2016-17
                               Rs/Cr

Sales                         27

PAT                          3.30

Equity                    10.75

EPS Rs                    3.07

For FY17 , NTC's sales stood at 27crores and Rs 3 EPS

RATIONALE FOR RECOMMENDATION:

NTC is not being recommended for
investment from its current (or near future) financial performance.
But scrip is being recommended as it has HUGE HUGE INTRINSIC value
which has potential to be unlocked in future. It may be clarified that
unlocking of this intrinsic value may not take place in near future
and in fact, can take few years. But current market cap is MINISCULE
compared to potential of the company:

1. *NTC has 20 acres of land in Calcutta.* Its cigarette factory
occupies only small portion of this entire land.MARKET VALUE OF THIS
LAND SHOULD BE OVER *Rs 300 crores.* At present, NTC do not have plans
to sell the surplus portion of land. Instead, company is gradually
building/constructing (from internal accruals) offices/warehouses
which are being leased to ensure annuity type of income every
quarter/year. If NTC succeeds in building/constructing
warehouse/office complex on ENTIRE SURPLUS Land of its factory in next
4-5 years, NTC
MAY GET MORE THAN Rs 15 CRORE AS ANNUAL RENTAL INCOME. NTC is not
resorting to borrowings to expedite the construction on surplus land.
Company is following conservative path of internal accruals.

2. CIGARETTES DIVISION:  This division may literally prove to be
Goldmine for NTC. Investors may be aware that in India, issuance of
new license for cigarette manufacturing has been banned and even
capacity expansion to existing companies is banned. In nutshell, due
to pollution and health hazards when govt is trying to discourage
consumption of tobacco/based products, there CAN NOT be new players in
cigarette industry and there CAN NOT be new capacity additions.

Conservatively, CIGARETTE LICENSE/CAPACITY OF NTC IS VALUED AT OVER Rs
1000 CRORES.

Management still has not crystallized any plans whether
any branded foreign cigarette company can be roped in as JV partner
for producing/selling  cigarettes as NTC has inhouse manufacturing
facility and adequate capacity license. Or, will company be able to
find a buyer whom it can sell its Cigarette division.

Thus, market value of its Land in Calcutta and its cigarette
license/division can be over *Rs 1300 crores*. However, current market
cap of NTC is just Rs 60 crores.

Investors who have patience of 2-5 years can buy NTC in BIG quantity.
Investors looking for gains in short term may make nominal gains
as no possibility of value unlocking in near future. However, if
investors hold the scrip for 2-5 years, appreciation (depending on
when value unlocking takes place) can be anywhere between 300% to
500%.

Earlier, _all-time price of NTC was Rs 327_ when negotiations had started for
selling its cigarette license (which did not materialise). Current
market cap is just 5% of its estimated intrinsic value. Even if sale
of cigarette license is ignored and NTC develops entire surplus land
for Commercial/Industrial Park etc, lease rental alone, after few
years, can translate into PBT of more than 15 crores. Worst
scenario is that investors may LOSE upto 10-20% or GAIN from 300% to
500% in 3-5 years.

Promoter holding is 67.43% and finally, Debt-free