Crompton Greaves: Best Sell

Big Brexit blow          

 Stock has run up from Rs 44 as CG had announced sale of its overseas loss making T&D biz for 115 million Euro on Debtfree cashfree basis. This inflow of 115 million Euro would have helped to reduce debt and hopes of improving profitability. However, this deal has been called off. Announcement anyday. We also believe recovery of domestic capex cycle is still not visible and even if there is a recovery, capacity constraints and highly competitive PT market will limit gains.  Pricing pressure continues in the overseas markets too, as suggested by peer commentary.

Q1 results (today)will be the worst in 2 years with profit coming only 1/3rd of what is expected by the market. Stock likely to be downgraded

Will stock touch Rs 65 Sept expiry?

Triveni Engineering: Huge Value Unlocking through Demerger: *Tgt Rs 90 in 3 months*

Valuation based upon FY16-17E:

Sugar Revenue(Cr)  2200
Value of Sugar Biz@
1.0xRevenue (Cr)     2200

Gear Biz Sales(Cr).    135
Value of Gear biz@
8xSales (Cr).              1000

Water biz Sales(Cr).   250
Value of Water biz @
1.2xSales (Cr).             300

Value of Triveni
Turbine stake(Cr).      900

*Total Value of co*. 4400cr
Long Term Debt.        528cr
*Net Value of co*.    3872cr
Discount before
Demerger@25%.        968cr

*FINAL NET VALUE*2904cr

Current Mktcap.        1480cr

*Potential for appreciation in next 3 months before record date: 90%*

Most Hot: Triveni Engineering Ltd: Buy NOW

Co will declare Q1 results today. With 7 sugar factories, Triveni is amongst largest sugar mfr in India.

As per denofwealth estimates, co can report *NP of 65-70 cr for Q1 alone vs Loss of 86 crores*.

FY17 NP of sugar division alone should give Rs 8-9 Eps. If  PERatio of 10, sugar division ( as engineering division getting demerger) alone should quote @ Rs 80-90 next year.

Investors can buy this stock for core portfolio.

Tgt Rs 85-95 in October 2016

Combined ( adding share price of 2 demerged entities)  value of listed entities can be *Rs 150 by 2017end*. Full detailed research report with electrifying details on Monday

Dividend Yield:PFC vs others:

Name.    Paid Rs   Yield

SKS.          Nil.           Nil

Canfin.      10.         0.70%

DHFL.          2.          0.76%

IBullHF.        9.          1.10%

LICHF.        5.50.      1%

PFC.       13.90.    6%

PFC miles ahead of ALL other NBFCs in terms of Dividend Yield and payout ratio

As per our source, Div for FY17 on increased equity ( after bonus) can be Rs 10

96% with Govt and institutions. Only 4% public holding.

Stock should be 254 August expiry

For investors, stock can be 200 ex-bonus by 2017end

Big market ahead for Triveni Glass Ltd:
Amravati proposed New capital of Andhra is just 80 km from TGL plant. When construction of Amravati gathers momentum, demand for building interior materials in that area will soar. TGL Will be amongst big beneficiary as there is no other glass plant in 200 km radius. Transportation of glass from long distances is not only risky ( breakages) but very expensive as well. Hence, TGL should witness never-before-seen demand boom for its designer glasses. Once OTS is fully implemented, co may go for massive Expansion considering impending demand explosion. And TGL can improve profit margins substantially. Still our Top Pick in Dark Horse segment with TP of 100+ in 2 years.

Highest ever quarterly NP, Q1 loan sanctions zoom 76%, and still Cheapest NBFC

POWER FINANCE CORPN:

Excellent Q1 nos:
NII grows 5% vs CNBC est of 7% degrowth

NP 1712 cr all time high qrtrly 21.85% up vs Bloomberg est 1405cr

NP up 36% QoQ

NP up 17% vs CNBC est

NP up  9% YoY


Q1 STRONG POSITIVES:

New sanctions increase whopping 76% to 34613 cr vs 19638

CAR 21.10%

Return on Net-worth 21%

Cost of Funds down to 8.46% vs 8.72%

Yield on Assets 11.94%

Tdg @ 0.87xBookValue

Annualised Eps 51.89

Tdg @ PERatio 4.30 only

52 week high 257
Stock to flare up as Bonus issue record date (29th) nearing
denofwealth hopeful that stock should bounce to 250  August expiry.                
POWER FINANCE CORPN:

BUY : Tgt Rs 250:Axis Direct

PAT above estimates, sanctions rise
Power Finance Corporation (PFC) reported profit of Rs 17 bn in Q1
(up 9% YoY) – above our estimate – aided by higher NII and
significantly lower-than-expected provisions (down 70% QoQ despite
135 bps improvement in coverage ratio). Asset quality was stable –
absolute GNPA stagnated at ~Rs 75 bn though headline GNPA ratio
optically slipped 20 bps down due to a consolidating loan book
(down 5% QoQ).
Although disbursements were flat YoY at Rs 77 bn, sanctions were up
76% YoY to Rs 346 bn, alleviating some concern on future growth after
conversion of discom debt into cash under the UDAY scheme.
Outstanding sanctions at Rs 1.55 tn (3.5x avg annual disbursements).

Our take: Record date for Bonus shares 29th August. Stock should rise sharply . 96% equity with Govt/DIIs/FIIs. Only 4% with public. We estimate PFC to be 150 ex-bonus ) in 2-3months

BUY now: JUST DIAL. Q1 Results will surprise.

denofwealth estimates PAT at 44cr vs HOS of 30 cr vs Bloomberg est 35cr. Just Dial market cap 3300 cr.

*Cash Balance around 900 cr. Nearly Rs 150 per share cash*BUY JUST DIAL all out

Huge Short Covering likely.

Month high Rs 588

DHP India Ltd: Q1
DHP has reported bumper nos:

Q1 NP 1.32 cr vs 62 lacs
Q1 Eps 4.40 vs 2.09
DHP on course to report Eps of 22 for FY17
Stock should cross 150 in 2-3 tdg sessions and Rs 350 in 18 months

Sun Pharma Q1 result today( after mkt hours):

Likely to beat Street est:

denofwealth est Sales @ 8300cr vs Bloomberg est 7876 cr

PAT can be 2040cr vs mkt est 1894cr

Stock has potential to open gap-up on Monday

SL. You decide

Breaking News:

Simmond Marshall Ltd: Set to announce bumper Q1 today:

denofwealth est Q1 PAT 2cr vs 89 lacs in Q4FY16, rising 124% QoQ. Huge improvement due to cost cutting.

Small Equity 2.24cr

Q1 Eeps 1.78 vs 0.79

Coming quarters to be still better

FY17Eeps Rs 8.

One of the oldest mfr of Fasteners and Nut/Bolt for Auto and engineering industry ( same as Sundaram Fasteners, Sterling Tools)

Even if SML gets PERatio of 15, stock should be Rs 120.

52 week high 132.

Awesome Q1 Tourism Fin Corpn Ltd:

Q1FY17 PAT 20.15 vs 3.25 Q4FY16, *rising BY 520%*

Q1FY17 PAT 20.15cr vs 16.45cr Q1FY16, rising 22%

NII 53.95cr vs Q4FY16 36.49cr, *rising 47%*

NII 53.95cr vs Q1FY16 46.97cr, rising 15%

Annualised Eps  Rs 10

Cmp 0.70xBValue, lowest in NBFC industry. Scope for huge expansion

TFCI has stopped funding to Real Estate and Equity.

Even if TFCI gets modest PERatio of 12, based upon current year earning, stock should be 120 in 6-9 months.

CLSA ON ADANI PORTS

Maintain Buy, Target `305

Promoter commits to unwind intergroup loans by 4QFY17

Promoters assurance on loans, turn in traffic are re-rating catalysts

Strong volume rise at Dhamra, Hazira and CT3 validates are drivers

See 50% growth in port Ebitda over FY16-19 despite a tough global trade

Our Take: Adani Port TP 262 August expiry

SBI Cap: Adani Ports and SEZ 1QF17 result review | TP – Rs303 (+26%) | Rating: BUY

Adani Ports and SEZ Ltd’s (APSEZ) 1QF17 results overshot SSLe, primarily driven by increase in cargo volumes across various ports. On a consolidated basis, APSEZ’s volumes grew 6.9% YoY to 42.3MMT (6% above SSLe) in 1QF17, mainly due to higher containers volumes and pick up in costal shipping. The company’s revenues grew by a healthy 6.5% YoY to Rs18.3bn, largely driven by - a) 6.9% YoY increase in volumes and b) higher SEZ income. On the operating front, EBITDA grew 7.1% YoY, whereas EBITDAM expanded 36bps YoY to 66.6% (SSLe: 65%). Margins expanded with the help of better cargo mix and optimization of port efficiencies. Adjusted PAT grew 29.6% YoY to Rs8.6bn (21% above SSLe) due to a) healthy top-line performance, b) rationalization of interest cost (down 23% YoY) and c) lower effective tax rate (6.9%) on account of MAT credit. Going forward, we expect APSEZ’s topline and bottomline to grow by a CAGR of 7.1% and 2.2%, respectively, over F16–F18e. We maintain BUY on the stock with a SOTP-based TP of Rs303

Power Finance Corp Q1 today:

Will beat ALL estimates by big margin

denofwealth est PAT @ 1680cr vs Bloomberg est 1405cr, huge beat by 20%

33% higher QoQ vs 1259cr

Beats ALL estimates

Stock likely to be UPGRADED  by all brokerage houses

Technical Outlook: PFC short term Target 240-250(cum Bonus). Good medium term Buy

52 week high 257. Will PFC make new high next month?

Coming quarters to be equally fabulous: 80% loan book to govt sector ( so no more NPAs due to govt guaranteed bonds). In balance 20% loan book to Pvt sector, all critical accounts hv bn accounted for. Hence future slippages to be negligible as Pvt sector Outlook improving. We advise to buy and hold for 1-3 weeks for high gains

Adani Port Q1 nos today:

Best buy for August series

denofwealth est PAT @ 780cr vs Bloomberg est 640cr, up 22%

Up 26%YoY vs 619cr

Beats all estimates by big margin.

denofwealth TP 265 August series

TECHNICALS from 2 analysts:

1. Breakout above 240. Support @ 233.50. Next target  248-256-262 this series

2. Has bottomed out. Short to medium term outlook is good. Stock has resistance @ 250. If goes past 250, it can test 300

we shall be BREAKING NEWS of 2 frontline/derivative as well as 2  cash stocks TOMORROW. In order to get all this info INSTANTLY absolutely free(*on Telegram we did Breaking News on Pasupti on Friday @27 and today it touched 34*) investors are advised to
register themselves( to avail of Hot and Hit news) at Telegram as per undergiven procedure:
1. Step 1- Download Telegram and install it from Google Playstore.
2. Step-2 Search for "denofwealth" in search bar.
3. Step3- Denof wealth will come in the search result.
4.Step4-Click on "JOIN".
Congrats you have boarded successfully.
*Those who have not registered are advised to do even now as many more Breaking News in next 1 week*

Mudar Pathreya (known for his Dark Horse Picks)in Business Standard.

 Sumeet Industries Bse Nse:No-brainer yarn spinning opportunity. A company that reported quarterly earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amoritsation (Ebitda) of Rs 27.58 crore is being valued for a market cap of around Rs 95 crore (which means on an annualised basis, the Ebitda could well be larger than the prevailing market cap, an investor trust deficit waiting to be corrected). Interest cover was a modest 2.55 times for a growing company in a capital-intensive sector; pre-tax profit was Rs 11.8 crore on an equity of Rs 58 crore (Rs 10 face value). The story gets more interesting when you consider a prospective expansion (manufacturing capacity and power plant) will increase revenues on the one hand and reduce costs on the other, the benefits of which one could start seeing from 2017-18 onwards. So, even as the company is quoted at a ridiculous discounting, this discount could deepen if it can maintain its current run rate and add expansion benefits. Could be quite a two-year story from this point.

Q1 PAT rises 160%:

Sales 127cr vs 151cr

Ebidta 26.89cr vs 13.15 Cr

Ebidta margin 21.19% vs 9.67%

PBT 24.03cr vs 10.08cr

PAT 18cr vs 6.95cr

Pasupati Acrylon has reported massive improvement in Q1 nos:

Q1 Eps 2.03 vs 0.78, rising 160%
Ebidta margin rise by 104%
Sales volume rises 2%
Sales lower by 7%, due to fall in raw material cost
Stock trading @ 3.75xFY17Eeps
TP Rs 35 this week, Rs 45 in 1-2 months

Most Hot Buy: Buy NOW

Pasupati Acrylon Bse 500456: Result tomorrow

Q1 NP as per denofwealth estimates should be 150% higher YoY

Q1 NP should be 17 cr or even higher. Highest ever quarterly NP

Stock trading at only 3.50xFY17Eeps

TP Rs 35-37 in 4-7 trading sessions

Rs 45 in 1 month

Big market ahead for Triveni Glass Ltd:

Amravati proposed New capital of Andhra is just 80 km from TGL plant. When construction of Amravati gathers momentum, demand for building interior materials in that area will soar. TGL Will be amongst big beneficiary as there is no other glass plant in 200 km radius. Transportation of glass from long distances is not only risky ( breakages) but very expensive as well. Hence, TGL should witness never-before-seen demand boom for its designer glasses. Once OTS is fully implemented, co may go for massive Expansion considering impending demand explosion. And TGL can improve profit margins substantially. Still our Top Pick in Dark Horse segment with TP of 100+ in 2 years.

Few Updates/ Calls of denofwealth vs CNBC/CLSA/ other big brokerage houses:

A. We gave buy call on Maruti @ 4550 that stock vl make new high and in less than a week, stock crossed 5000
B. Bajaj Auto: When almost entire India was giving SHORT call as we had conviction. And with God's blessings, we emerged winners. Stock rose sharply.
C. Larsen: We gave SHORT call at 1555. Almost all investors were on cloud Nine when whimsical CLSA and others upgraded Larsen that we shall be proved wrong. But stock had already slipped Rs 80 since then. Again God helped us
D. Voltas : Despite best ever results, Clsa and CNBC and others gv sell call. We hope in few days, we should prove right.
Least said about Clsa, better it is. Since they gave sell call on BIOCON few months back, stock has more than doubled. They r so egoistic that even now repeating sell on BIOCON with TP 450. I remember around 3 years back Clsa had gvn Buy on an auto ancillary @ 100 or so. Thereafter stock plunged below Rs 10

Result Update on Voltas:
NP little lower than our est. Still significantly higher than Bloomberg estimate. Panic selling. We advise our investors to hold. Brokerage houses likely to upgrade. Stock came down as leading channel gave SHORT call. However we have conviction that stock will rise again

VOLTAS Q1 result today:

Best Ever Results. Stock to make NEW Lifetime High

BTST TP 390+

August Expiry TP 435

denofwealth est EBIDTA to be 220cr vs Bloomberg 165cr, beating by 33percent

denofwealth est PAT @ 172cr vs Bloomberg est 125 cr bearing by 38 percent

Rising 108percent QoQ

Huge improvement due to benign R/M costs and excellent high margin biz in M East

Suggest positional trade for higher return

Stock can cross 400.

Annualised Eps Rs 18. With PERatio of 30 ( this stock/ industry gets), stock worth Rs 500+ in 9-12 months

Big Trigger forTriveni Glass Ltd:

In FY16, TGL was operating only 1 plant. However in its Rajahmundry factory only, 2nd plant was lying closed. Now, 2nd plant has also become operational. Although capacity of 2nd plant is same as of 1st but capacity utilisation of 2 nd plant will be around 60 percent. Hence capacity of TGL stands enhanced by 60 percent. Figured glass being high margin biz, TGL should achieve Rs 12 Eps for FY18.
Stock is still available @ 1.90xFY18Eeps.
Stock should come out of T group next month as only few hundred promoter shares remains physical. Even if stock gets modest PERatio of 10, stock price can be Rs 120 in less than 2 years.